Backtest History
2761 graded games
Every graded prediction from the frozen walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and the final margin. Lines are quoted for the home team.
| Season | Wk | Matchup | Score | Model | Close | Result | Model err |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 17 | SEA vs SF | 26–23 | +6.1 | +7.0 | +3.0 | 3.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 17 | TEN @ HOU | 41–38 | +6.9 | +7.0 | +3.0 | 3.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 17 | WAS @ PHI | 20–14 | +2.9 | +6.5 | +6.0 | 3.1 |
| 2020 | 16 | ATL @ KC | 14–17 | -9.0 | -11.0 | -3.0 | 6.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 16 | BUF @ NE | 38–9 | +9.6 | +7.0 | +29.0 | 19.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 16 | CAR @ WAS | 20–13 | +0.6 | +1.0 | +7.0 | 6.4 |
| 2020 | 16 | CHI @ JAX | 41–17 | +9.3 | +9.5 | +24.0 | 14.7 |
| 2020 | 16 | CIN @ HOU | 37–31 | -5.8 | -7.5 | +6.0 | 11.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 16 | CLE @ NYJ | 16–23 | +9.6 | +6.5 | -7.0 | 16.6 |
| 2020 | 16 | DEN @ LAC | 16–19 | -4.1 | -2.5 | -3.0 | 1.1 |
| 2020 | 16 | IND @ PIT | 24–28 | +2.8 | +1.0 | -4.0 | 6.8 |
| 2020 | 16 | LA @ SEA | 9–20 | -0.5 | -1.5 | -11.0 | 10.5 |
| 2020 | 16 | MIA @ LV | 26–25 | +3.9 | +2.0 | +1.0 | 2.9 |
| 2020 | 16 | MIN @ NO | 33–52 | -8.7 | -6.5 | -19.0 | 10.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 16 | NYG @ BAL | 13–27 | -11.4 | -10.0 | -14.0 | 2.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 16 | PHI @ DAL | 17–37 | +2.7 | +3.0 | -20.0 | 22.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 16 | SF @ ARI | 20–12 | -7.3 | -6.0 | +8.0 | 15.3 |
| 2020 | 16 | TB @ DET | 47–7 | +13.2 | +12.0 | +40.0 | 26.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 16 | TEN @ GB | 14–40 | -2.8 | -3.0 | -26.0 | 23.2 |
| 2020 | 15 | BUF @ DEN | 48–19 | +5.9 | +5.5 | +29.0 | 23.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 15 | CAR @ GB | 16–24 | -11.3 | -9.5 | -8.0 | 3.3 |
| 2020 | 15 | CHI @ MIN | 33–27 | -2.4 | -2.5 | +6.0 | 8.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 15 | CLE @ NYG | 20–6 | +7.1 | +6.0 | +14.0 | 6.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 15 | DET @ TEN | 25–46 | -9.3 | -9.5 | -21.0 | 11.7 |
| 2020 | 15 | HOU @ IND | 20–27 | -7.7 | -7.5 | -7.0 | 0.7 |
| 2020 | 15 | JAX @ BAL | 14–40 | -13.0 | -13.0 | -26.0 | 13.0 |
| 2020 | 15 | KC @ NO | 32–29 | -2.1 | +2.5 | +3.0 | 5.1 |
| 2020 | 15 | LAC @ LV | 30–27 | -0.1 | -3.5 | +3.0 | 3.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 15 | NE @ MIA | 12–22 | -1.1 | +1.5 | -10.0 | 8.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 15 | NYJ @ LA | 23–20 | -17.8 | -17.5 | +3.0 | 20.8 |
| 2020 | 15 | PHI @ ARI | 26–33 | -5.2 | -6.5 | -7.0 | 1.8 |
| 2020 | 15 | PIT @ CIN | 17–27 | +16.7 | +14.5 | -10.0 | 26.7 |
| 2020 | 15 | SEA @ WAS | 20–15 | +4.7 | +6.0 | +5.0 | 0.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 15 | SF @ DAL | 33–41 | +2.4 | +4.0 | -8.0 | 10.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 15 | TB @ ATL | 31–27 | +5.0 | +6.0 | +4.0 | 1.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 14 | ARI @ NYG | 26–7 | +0.7 | +3.0 | +19.0 | 18.3 |
| 2020 | 14 | ATL @ LAC | 17–20 | +1.6 | -1.0 | -3.0 | 4.6 |
| 2020 | 14 | BAL @ CLE | 47–42 | +2.6 | +3.0 | +5.0 | 2.4 |
| 2020 | 14 | DAL @ CIN | 30–7 | +3.5 | +3.0 | +23.0 | 19.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 14 | DEN @ CAR | 32–27 | -4.0 | -4.0 | +5.0 | 9.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 14 | GB @ DET | 31–24 | +12.8 | +9.5 | +7.0 | 5.8 |
| 2020 | 14 | HOU @ CHI | 7–36 | +3.4 | +1.0 | -29.0 | 32.4 |
| 2020 | 14 | IND @ LV | 44–27 | +3.6 | +2.5 | +17.0 | 13.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 14 | KC @ MIA | 33–27 | +7.0 | +7.5 | +6.0 | 1.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 14 | MIN @ TB | 14–26 | -5.4 | -7.0 | -12.0 | 6.6 |
| 2020 | 14 | NE @ LA | 3–24 | -4.3 | -5.0 | -21.0 | 16.7 |
| 2020 | 14 | NO @ PHI | 21–24 | +7.6 | +7.5 | -3.0 | 10.6 |
| 2020 | 14 | NYJ @ SEA | 3–40 | -12.8 | -16.5 | -37.0 | 24.2 |
| 2020 | 14 | PIT @ BUF | 15–26 | -2.4 | -2.0 | -11.0 | 8.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 14 | TEN @ JAX | 31–10 | +6.7 | +7.5 | +21.0 | 14.3 |
Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.