Backtest History
2761 graded games
Every graded prediction from the frozen walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and the final margin. Lines are quoted for the home team.
| Season | Wk | Matchup | Score | Model | Close | Result | Model err |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 10 | HOU @ CLE | 7–10 | -3.2 | -4.5 | -3.0 | 0.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 10 | IND @ TEN | 34–17 | +0.5 | +1.0 | +17.0 | 16.5 |
| 2020 | 10 | JAX @ GB | 20–24 | -15.8 | -13.5 | -4.0 | 11.8 |
| 2020 | 10 | LAC @ MIA | 21–29 | +0.5 | -1.0 | -8.0 | 8.5 |
| 2020 | 10 | MIN @ CHI | 19–13 | +3.9 | +3.5 | +6.0 | 2.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 10 | PHI @ NYG | 17–27 | +2.3 | +4.5 | -10.0 | 12.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 10 | SEA @ LA | 16–23 | -1.1 | -3.0 | -7.0 | 5.9 |
| 2020 | 10 | SF @ NO | 13–27 | -8.5 | -9.5 | -14.0 | 5.5 |
| 2020 | 10 | TB @ CAR | 46–23 | +2.7 | +6.0 | +23.0 | 20.3 |
| 2020 | 10 | WAS @ DET | 27–30 | -0.3 | -2.5 | -3.0 | 2.7 |
| 2020 | 9 | BAL @ IND | 24–10 | -1.0 | -1.0 | +14.0 | 15.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 9 | CAR @ KC | 31–33 | -10.7 | -10.0 | -2.0 | 8.7 |
| 2020 | 9 | CHI @ TEN | 17–24 | -4.9 | -6.5 | -7.0 | 2.1 |
| 2020 | 9 | DEN @ ATL | 27–34 | -4.9 | -4.5 | -7.0 | 2.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 9 | DET @ MIN | 20–34 | -4.2 | -3.0 | -14.0 | 9.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 9 | GB @ SF | 34–17 | +2.6 | +6.0 | +17.0 | 14.4 |
| 2020 | 9 | HOU @ JAX | 27–25 | +6.8 | +7.0 | +2.0 | 4.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 9 | LV @ LAC | 31–26 | -2.0 | +1.0 | +5.0 | 7.0 |
| 2020 | 9 | MIA @ ARI | 34–31 | -6.6 | -6.0 | +3.0 | 9.6 |
| 2020 | 9 | NE @ NYJ | 30–27 | +8.7 | +9.5 | +3.0 | 5.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 9 | NO @ TB | 38–3 | -4.8 | -3.0 | +35.0 | 39.8 |
| 2020 | 9 | NYG @ WAS | 23–20 | -2.9 | -3.0 | +3.0 | 5.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 9 | PIT @ DAL | 24–19 | +14.8 | +14.0 | +5.0 | 9.8 |
| 2020 | 9 | SEA @ BUF | 34–44 | +3.5 | +3.0 | -10.0 | 13.5 |
| 2020 | 8 | ATL @ CAR | 25–17 | -1.1 | -1.5 | +8.0 | 9.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 8 | DAL @ PHI | 9–23 | -10.6 | -10.0 | -14.0 | 3.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 8 | IND @ DET | 41–21 | +2.8 | +3.5 | +20.0 | 17.2 |
| 2020 | 8 | LA @ MIA | 17–28 | +4.1 | +3.5 | -11.0 | 15.1 |
| 2020 | 8 | LAC @ DEN | 30–31 | +5.3 | +3.0 | -1.0 | 6.3 |
| 2020 | 8 | LV @ CLE | 16–6 | -1.5 | -1.0 | +10.0 | 11.5 |
| 2020 | 8 | MIN @ GB | 28–22 | -8.3 | -5.5 | +6.0 | 14.3 |
| 2020 | 8 | NE @ BUF | 21–24 | -5.1 | -4.0 | -3.0 | 2.1 |
| 2020 | 8 | NO @ CHI | 26–23 | +5.4 | +5.5 | +3.0 | 2.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 8 | NYJ @ KC | 9–35 | -21.4 | -20.0 | -26.0 | 4.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 8 | PIT @ BAL | 28–24 | -2.7 | -4.0 | +4.0 | 6.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 8 | SF @ SEA | 27–37 | +1.4 | -1.0 | -10.0 | 11.4 |
| 2020 | 8 | TB @ NYG | 25–23 | +15.4 | +13.0 | +2.0 | 13.4 |
| 2020 | 8 | TEN @ CIN | 20–31 | +5.8 | +7.5 | -11.0 | 16.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 7 | BUF @ NYJ | 18–10 | +11.5 | +9.5 | +8.0 | 3.5 |
| 2020 | 7 | CAR @ NO | 24–27 | -5.4 | -7.0 | -3.0 | 2.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 7 | CHI @ LA | 10–24 | -4.4 | -6.5 | -14.0 | 9.6 |
| 2020 | 7 | CLE @ CIN | 37–34 | +2.0 | +4.5 | +3.0 | 1.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 7 | DAL @ WAS | 3–25 | -1.3 | +1.0 | -22.0 | 20.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 7 | DET @ ATL | 23–22 | -2.6 | -1.0 | +1.0 | 3.6 |
| 2020 | 7 | GB @ HOU | 35–20 | +3.7 | +2.5 | +15.0 | 11.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 7 | JAX @ LAC | 29–39 | -11.3 | -8.0 | -10.0 | 1.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 7 | KC @ DEN | 43–16 | +8.3 | +7.0 | +27.0 | 18.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 7 | NYG @ PHI | 21–22 | -4.9 | -5.0 | -1.0 | 3.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 7 | PIT @ TEN | 27–24 | -0.1 | -1.0 | +3.0 | 3.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 7 | SEA @ ARI | 34–37 | +0.5 | +3.5 | -3.0 | 3.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.