Backtest History
2761 graded games
Every graded prediction from the frozen walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and the final margin. Lines are quoted for the home team.
| Season | Wk | Matchup | Score | Model | Close | Result | Model err |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 7 | SF @ NE | 33–6 | -0.2 | -3.0 | +27.0 | 27.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 7 | TB @ LV | 45–20 | +5.3 | +3.5 | +25.0 | 19.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 6 | ARI @ DAL | 38–10 | +2.5 | -1.0 | +28.0 | 25.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 6 | ATL @ MIN | 40–23 | -5.8 | -3.5 | +17.0 | 22.8 |
| 2020 | 6 | BAL @ PHI | 30–28 | +10.3 | +10.5 | +2.0 | 8.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 6 | CHI @ CAR | 23–16 | -4.1 | -2.0 | +7.0 | 11.1 |
| 2020 | 6 | CIN @ IND | 27–31 | -8.9 | -7.5 | -4.0 | 4.9 |
| 2020 | 6 | CLE @ PIT | 7–38 | -2.3 | -3.0 | -31.0 | 28.7 |
| 2020 | 6 | DEN @ NE | 18–12 | -8.0 | -7.0 | +6.0 | 14.0 |
| 2020 | 6 | DET @ JAX | 34–16 | +1.4 | +3.0 | +18.0 | 16.6 |
| 2020 | 6 | GB @ TB | 10–38 | +4.1 | +3.0 | -28.0 | 32.1 |
| 2020 | 6 | HOU @ TEN | 36–42 | -6.4 | -4.0 | -6.0 | 0.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 6 | KC @ BUF | 26–17 | +5.3 | +5.5 | +9.0 | 3.7 |
| 2020 | 6 | LA @ SF | 16–24 | +2.1 | +2.0 | -8.0 | 10.1 |
| 2020 | 6 | NYJ @ MIA | 0–24 | -15.0 | -9.5 | -24.0 | 9.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 6 | WAS @ NYG | 19–20 | -0.4 | -2.0 | -1.0 | 0.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 5 | ARI @ NYJ | 30–10 | +8.3 | +7.0 | +20.0 | 11.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 5 | BUF @ TEN | 16–42 | +4.1 | +3.0 | -26.0 | 30.1 |
| 2020 | 5 | CAR @ ATL | 23–16 | +0.2 | -2.5 | +7.0 | 6.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 5 | CIN @ BAL | 3–27 | -10.3 | -12.5 | -24.0 | 13.7 |
| 2020 | 5 | IND @ CLE | 23–32 | +1.2 | -1.0 | -9.0 | 10.2 |
| 2020 | 5 | JAX @ HOU | 14–30 | -3.9 | -6.5 | -16.0 | 12.1 |
| 2020 | 5 | LA @ WAS | 30–10 | +6.2 | +7.0 | +20.0 | 13.8 |
| 2020 | 5 | LAC @ NO | 27–30 | -4.6 | -7.0 | -3.0 | 1.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 5 | LV @ KC | 40–32 | -13.0 | -11.0 | +8.0 | 21.0 |
| 2020 | 5 | MIA @ SF | 43–17 | -9.6 | -8.5 | +26.0 | 35.6 |
| 2020 | 5 | MIN @ SEA | 26–27 | -6.1 | -6.5 | -1.0 | 5.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 5 | NYG @ DAL | 34–37 | -8.6 | -7.5 | -3.0 | 5.6 |
| 2020 | 5 | PHI @ PIT | 29–38 | -7.1 | -7.5 | -9.0 | 1.9 |
| 2020 | 5 | TB @ CHI | 19–20 | +5.5 | +3.5 | -1.0 | 6.5 |
| 2020 | 4 | ARI @ CAR | 21–31 | +4.0 | +3.0 | -10.0 | 14.0 |
| 2020 | 4 | ATL @ GB | 16–30 | -8.2 | -5.0 | -14.0 | 5.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 4 | BAL @ WAS | 31–17 | +12.5 | +14.5 | +14.0 | 1.5 |
| 2020 | 4 | BUF @ LV | 30–23 | +3.6 | +3.0 | +7.0 | 3.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 4 | CLE @ DAL | 49–38 | -4.1 | -3.5 | +11.0 | 15.1 |
| 2020 | 4 | DEN @ NYJ | 37–28 | +2.7 | -1.0 | +9.0 | 6.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 4 | IND @ CHI | 19–11 | +3.9 | +3.5 | +8.0 | 4.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 4 | JAX @ CIN | 25–33 | -3.0 | -1.0 | -8.0 | 5.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 4 | LAC @ TB | 31–38 | -6.9 | -7.5 | -7.0 | 0.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 4 | MIN @ HOU | 31–23 | -2.0 | -3.5 | +8.0 | 10.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 4 | NE @ KC | 10–26 | -9.5 | -7.0 | -16.0 | 6.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 4 | NO @ DET | 35–29 | +4.9 | +3.0 | +6.0 | 1.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 4 | NYG @ LA | 9–17 | -15.8 | -13.5 | -8.0 | 7.8 |
| 2020 | 4 | PHI @ SF | 25–20 | -14.2 | -8.5 | +5.0 | 19.2 |
| 2020 | 4 | SEA @ MIA | 31–23 | +3.0 | +4.5 | +8.0 | 5.0 |
| 2020 | 3 | CAR @ LAC | 21–16 | -7.8 | -6.0 | +5.0 | 12.8 |
| 2020 | 3 | CHI @ ATL | 30–26 | -2.2 | -2.5 | +4.0 | 6.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 3 | CIN @ PHI | 23–23 | -1.2 | -5.5 | 0.0 | 1.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 3 | DAL @ SEA | 31–38 | -6.2 | -5.5 | -7.0 | 0.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 3 | DET @ ARI | 26–23 | -9.2 | -4.5 | +3.0 | 12.2 |
Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.