Backtest History
2761 graded games
Every graded prediction from the frozen walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and the final margin. Lines are quoted for the home team.
| Season | Wk | Matchup | Score | Model | Close | Result | Model err |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 11 | BUF @ MIA | 37–20 | +6.0 | +7.0 | +17.0 | 11.0 |
| 2019 | 11 | CHI @ LA | 7–17 | -4.6 | -5.0 | -10.0 | 5.4 |
| 2019 | 11 | CIN @ LV | 10–17 | -17.3 | -13.0 | -7.0 | 10.3 |
| 2019 | 11 | DAL @ DET | 35–27 | +9.6 | +7.5 | +8.0 | 1.6 |
| 2019 | 11 | DEN @ MIN | 23–27 | -11.9 | -10.0 | -4.0 | 7.9 |
| 2019 | 11 | HOU @ BAL | 7–41 | -5.9 | -4.0 | -34.0 | 28.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2019 | 11 | JAX @ IND | 13–33 | -2.7 | -2.5 | -20.0 | 17.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2019 | 11 | KC vs LAC | 24–17 | +7.2 | +5.5 | +7.0 | 0.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2019 | 11 | NE @ PHI | 17–10 | +5.8 | +4.5 | +7.0 | 1.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2019 | 11 | NO @ TB | 34–17 | +5.3 | +5.0 | +17.0 | 11.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2019 | 11 | NYJ @ WAS | 34–17 | +1.6 | -1.0 | +17.0 | 15.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2019 | 11 | PIT @ CLE | 7–21 | -0.9 | -3.0 | -14.0 | 13.1 |
| 2019 | 10 | ARI @ TB | 27–30 | -5.4 | -5.5 | -3.0 | 2.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2019 | 10 | ATL @ NO | 26–9 | -16.0 | -14.0 | +17.0 | 33.0 |
| 2019 | 10 | BAL @ CIN | 49–13 | +13.3 | +10.5 | +36.0 | 22.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2019 | 10 | BUF @ CLE | 16–19 | -2.1 | -3.0 | -3.0 | 0.9 |
| 2019 | 10 | CAR @ GB | 16–24 | -5.5 | -5.0 | -8.0 | 2.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2019 | 10 | DET @ CHI | 13–20 | -6.8 | -6.0 | -7.0 | 0.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2019 | 10 | KC @ TEN | 32–35 | +7.1 | +5.0 | -3.0 | 10.1 |
| 2019 | 10 | LA @ PIT | 12–17 | +3.3 | +4.0 | -5.0 | 8.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2019 | 10 | LAC @ LV | 24–26 | +0.6 | +1.0 | -2.0 | 2.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2019 | 10 | MIA @ IND | 16–12 | -9.6 | -11.0 | +4.0 | 13.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2019 | 10 | MIN @ DAL | 28–24 | -0.7 | -3.5 | +4.0 | 4.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2019 | 10 | NYG @ NYJ | 27–34 | +1.9 | +3.0 | -7.0 | 8.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2019 | 10 | SEA @ SF | 27–24 | -7.1 | -6.5 | +3.0 | 10.1 |
| 2019 | 9 | CHI @ PHI | 14–22 | -1.3 | -5.0 | -8.0 | 6.7 |
| 2019 | 9 | CLE @ DEN | 19–24 | +2.3 | +4.0 | -5.0 | 7.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2019 | 9 | DAL @ NYG | 37–18 | +9.1 | +6.5 | +19.0 | 9.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2019 | 9 | DET @ LV | 24–31 | -0.7 | -2.5 | -7.0 | 6.3 |
| 2019 | 9 | GB @ LAC | 11–26 | +6.2 | +4.0 | -15.0 | 21.2 |
| 2019 | 9 | HOU vs JAX | 26–3 | +0.7 | -1.0 | +23.0 | 22.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2019 | 9 | IND @ PIT | 24–26 | -3.2 | -1.0 | -2.0 | 1.2 |
| 2019 | 9 | MIN @ KC | 23–26 | +8.1 | +5.5 | -3.0 | 11.1 |
| 2019 | 9 | NE @ BAL | 20–37 | +4.7 | +3.0 | -17.0 | 21.7 |
| 2019 | 9 | NYJ @ MIA | 18–26 | +0.3 | +3.5 | -8.0 | 8.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2019 | 9 | SF @ ARI | 28–25 | +11.6 | +10.5 | +3.0 | 8.6 |
| 2019 | 9 | TB @ SEA | 34–40 | -3.1 | -4.0 | -6.0 | 2.9 |
| 2019 | 9 | TEN @ CAR | 20–30 | -0.7 | -3.5 | -10.0 | 9.3 |
| 2019 | 9 | WAS @ BUF | 9–24 | -12.3 | -10.5 | -15.0 | 2.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2019 | 8 | ARI @ NO | 9–31 | -14.0 | -12.5 | -22.0 | 8.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2019 | 8 | CAR @ SF | 13–51 | -3.4 | -4.5 | -38.0 | 34.6 |
| 2019 | 8 | CIN vs LA | 10–24 | -12.7 | -12.0 | -14.0 | 1.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2019 | 8 | CLE @ NE | 13–27 | -12.1 | -9.5 | -14.0 | 1.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2019 | 8 | DEN @ IND | 13–15 | -6.3 | -6.0 | -2.0 | 4.3 |
| 2019 | 8 | GB @ KC | 31–24 | +6.8 | +5.0 | +7.0 | 0.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2019 | 8 | LAC @ CHI | 17–16 | -4.4 | -3.5 | +1.0 | 5.4 |
| 2019 | 8 | MIA @ PIT | 14–27 | -12.8 | -14.0 | -13.0 | 0.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2019 | 8 | NYG @ DET | 26–31 | -8.5 | -6.5 | -5.0 | 3.5 |
| 2019 | 8 | NYJ @ JAX | 15–29 | -9.4 | -7.0 | -14.0 | 4.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2019 | 8 | LV @ HOU | 24–27 | -6.8 | -5.0 | -3.0 | 3.8 |
Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.