Backtest History
2761 graded games
Every graded prediction from the frozen walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and the final margin. Lines are quoted for the home team.
| Season | Wk | Matchup | Score | Model | Close | Result | Model err |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 8 | PHI @ BUF | 31–13 | -3.2 | -1.0 | +18.0 | 21.2 |
| 2019 | 8 | SEA @ ATL | 27–20 | +9.0 | +7.5 | +7.0 | 2.0 |
| 2019 | 8 | TB @ TEN | 23–27 | -0.3 | -2.0 | -4.0 | 3.7 |
| 2019 | 8 | WAS @ MIN | 9–19 | -17.9 | -16.5 | -10.0 | 7.9 |
| 2019 | 7 | ARI @ NYG | 27–21 | +0.3 | -3.5 | +6.0 | 5.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2019 | 7 | BAL @ SEA | 30–16 | -3.3 | -3.0 | +14.0 | 17.3 |
| 2019 | 7 | HOU @ IND | 23–30 | +2.3 | -1.5 | -7.0 | 9.3 |
| 2019 | 7 | JAX @ CIN | 27–17 | +5.0 | +4.0 | +10.0 | 5.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2019 | 7 | KC @ DEN | 30–6 | -1.8 | +3.0 | +24.0 | 25.8 |
| 2019 | 7 | LA @ ATL | 37–10 | +2.3 | +3.0 | +27.0 | 24.7 |
| 2019 | 7 | LAC @ TEN | 20–23 | -1.1 | -3.0 | -3.0 | 1.9 |
| 2019 | 7 | MIA @ BUF | 21–31 | -13.1 | -17.0 | -10.0 | 3.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2019 | 7 | MIN @ DET | 42–30 | +4.9 | +2.5 | +12.0 | 7.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2019 | 7 | NE @ NYJ | 33–0 | +9.3 | +9.5 | +33.0 | 23.7 |
| 2019 | 7 | NO @ CHI | 36–25 | -4.2 | -4.0 | +11.0 | 15.2 |
| 2019 | 7 | LV @ GB | 24–42 | -5.3 | -5.5 | -18.0 | 12.7 |
| 2019 | 7 | PHI @ DAL | 10–37 | -3.1 | -3.0 | -27.0 | 23.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2019 | 7 | SF @ WAS | 9–0 | +12.6 | +10.0 | +9.0 | 3.6 |
| 2019 | 6 | ATL @ ARI | 33–34 | +1.8 | +3.0 | -1.0 | 2.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2019 | 6 | CAR vs TB | 37–26 | +0.3 | +2.0 | +11.0 | 10.7 |
| 2019 | 6 | CIN @ BAL | 17–23 | -10.7 | -10.5 | -6.0 | 4.7 |
| 2019 | 6 | DAL @ NYJ | 22–24 | +5.9 | +7.0 | -2.0 | 7.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2019 | 6 | DET @ GB | 22–23 | -3.8 | -3.5 | -1.0 | 2.8 |
| 2019 | 6 | HOU @ KC | 31–24 | -2.6 | -3.5 | +7.0 | 9.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2019 | 6 | NO @ JAX | 13–6 | -1.2 | -2.5 | +7.0 | 8.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2019 | 6 | NYG @ NE | 14–35 | -16.0 | -16.5 | -21.0 | 5.0 |
| 2019 | 6 | PHI @ MIN | 20–38 | -5.8 | -3.5 | -18.0 | 12.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2019 | 6 | PIT @ LAC | 24–17 | -3.1 | -6.0 | +7.0 | 10.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2019 | 6 | SEA @ CLE | 32–28 | +1.3 | -1.0 | +4.0 | 2.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2019 | 6 | SF @ LA | 20–7 | -0.7 | -3.0 | +13.0 | 13.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2019 | 6 | TEN @ DEN | 0–16 | -0.5 | -1.0 | -16.0 | 15.5 |
| 2019 | 6 | WAS @ MIA | 17–16 | +7.1 | +6.0 | +1.0 | 6.1 |
| 2019 | 5 | ARI @ CIN | 26–23 | -2.4 | -3.0 | +3.0 | 5.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2019 | 5 | ATL @ HOU | 32–53 | -4.6 | -4.0 | -21.0 | 16.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2019 | 5 | BAL @ PIT | 26–23 | +2.0 | +3.5 | +3.0 | 1.0 |
| 2019 | 5 | BUF @ TEN | 14–7 | -3.0 | -3.5 | +7.0 | 10.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2019 | 5 | CHI vs LV | 21–24 | +7.0 | +6.5 | -3.0 | 10.0 |
| 2019 | 5 | CLE @ SF | 3–31 | -3.0 | -5.0 | -28.0 | 25.0 |
| 2019 | 5 | DEN @ LAC | 20–13 | -5.5 | -4.0 | +7.0 | 12.5 |
| 2019 | 5 | GB @ DAL | 34–24 | -3.6 | -3.5 | +10.0 | 13.6 |
| 2019 | 5 | IND @ KC | 19–13 | -10.3 | -10.5 | +6.0 | 16.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2019 | 5 | JAX @ CAR | 27–34 | -2.0 | -3.0 | -7.0 | 5.0 |
| 2019 | 5 | LA @ SEA | 29–30 | -1.5 | -1.5 | -1.0 | 0.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2019 | 5 | MIN @ NYG | 28–10 | +4.1 | +5.5 | +18.0 | 13.9 |
| 2019 | 5 | NE @ WAS | 33–7 | +16.4 | +15.5 | +26.0 | 9.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2019 | 5 | NYJ @ PHI | 6–31 | -12.0 | -14.0 | -25.0 | 13.0 |
| 2019 | 5 | TB @ NO | 24–31 | +0.2 | -3.0 | -7.0 | 7.2 |
| 2019 | 4 | CAR @ HOU | 16–10 | -2.9 | -5.5 | +6.0 | 8.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2019 | 4 | CIN @ PIT | 3–27 | -2.2 | -3.5 | -24.0 | 21.8 |
| 2019 | 4 | CLE @ BAL | 40–25 | -7.9 | -7.5 | +15.0 | 22.9 |
Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.