Backtest History
2761 graded games
Every graded prediction from the frozen walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and the final margin. Lines are quoted for the home team.
| Season | Wk | Matchup | Score | Model | Close | Result | Model err |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 10 | DAL @ ATL | 7–27 | +0.1 | -3.5 | -20.0 | 20.1 |
| 2017 | 10 | GB @ CHI | 23–16 | -4.2 | -4.5 | +7.0 | 11.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 10 | HOU @ LA | 7–33 | -13.8 | -12.0 | -26.0 | 12.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 10 | LAC @ JAX | 17–20 | -8.8 | -5.0 | -3.0 | 5.8 |
| 2017 | 10 | MIA @ CAR | 21–45 | -8.2 | -8.0 | -24.0 | 15.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 10 | MIN @ WAS | 38–30 | +1.9 | +1.0 | +8.0 | 6.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 10 | NE @ DEN | 41–16 | +8.8 | +7.0 | +25.0 | 16.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 10 | NO @ BUF | 47–10 | +4.3 | +2.0 | +37.0 | 32.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 10 | NYG @ SF | 21–31 | +5.1 | +3.0 | -10.0 | 15.1 |
| 2017 | 10 | NYJ @ TB | 10–15 | +2.2 | -1.0 | -5.0 | 7.2 |
| 2017 | 10 | PIT @ IND | 20–17 | +10.4 | +10.5 | +3.0 | 7.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 10 | SEA @ ARI | 22–16 | +8.0 | +6.0 | +6.0 | 2.0 |
| 2017 | 9 | ARI @ SF | 20–10 | +0.3 | +2.5 | +10.0 | 9.7 |
| 2017 | 9 | ATL @ CAR | 17–20 | +0.7 | +3.0 | -3.0 | 3.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 9 | BAL @ TEN | 20–23 | -4.1 | -3.0 | -3.0 | 1.1 |
| 2017 | 9 | BUF @ NYJ | 21–34 | +2.6 | +3.0 | -13.0 | 15.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 9 | CIN @ JAX | 7–23 | -9.0 | -6.0 | -16.0 | 7.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 9 | DEN @ PHI | 23–51 | -8.7 | -7.0 | -28.0 | 19.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 9 | DET @ GB | 30–17 | +2.5 | +2.5 | +13.0 | 10.5 |
| 2017 | 9 | IND @ HOU | 20–14 | -6.9 | -6.0 | +6.0 | 12.9 |
| 2017 | 9 | KC @ DAL | 17–28 | -0.4 | -2.0 | -11.0 | 10.6 |
| 2017 | 9 | LA @ NYG | 51–17 | +5.4 | +5.5 | +34.0 | 28.6 |
| 2017 | 9 | LV @ MIA | 27–24 | +3.4 | +3.0 | +3.0 | 0.4 |
| 2017 | 9 | TB @ NO | 10–30 | -8.3 | -7.0 | -20.0 | 11.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 9 | WAS @ SEA | 17–14 | -8.0 | -8.0 | +3.0 | 11.0 |
| 2017 | 8 | ATL @ NYJ | 25–20 | +2.5 | +6.5 | +5.0 | 2.5 |
| 2017 | 8 | CAR @ TB | 17–3 | -3.2 | -1.5 | +14.0 | 17.2 |
| 2017 | 8 | CHI @ NO | 12–20 | -11.1 | -7.5 | -8.0 | 3.1 |
| 2017 | 8 | DAL @ WAS | 33–19 | +1.5 | +3.0 | +14.0 | 12.5 |
| 2017 | 8 | DEN @ KC | 19–29 | -9.5 | -7.0 | -10.0 | 0.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 8 | HOU @ SEA | 38–41 | -3.0 | -6.0 | -3.0 | 0.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 8 | IND @ CIN | 23–24 | -12.0 | -11.0 | -1.0 | 11.0 |
| 2017 | 8 | LAC @ NE | 13–21 | -7.5 | -6.5 | -8.0 | 0.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 8 | MIA @ BAL | 0–40 | -0.8 | -3.0 | -40.0 | 39.2 |
| 2017 | 8 | MIN vs CLE | 33–16 | +13.8 | +11.0 | +17.0 | 3.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 8 | LV @ BUF | 14–34 | -3.2 | -2.5 | -20.0 | 16.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 8 | PIT @ DET | 20–15 | +5.3 | +3.0 | +5.0 | 0.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 8 | SF @ PHI | 10–33 | -14.6 | -13.0 | -23.0 | 8.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 7 | ARI vs LA | 0–33 | -3.4 | -3.0 | -33.0 | 29.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 7 | ATL @ NE | 7–23 | -4.2 | -3.0 | -16.0 | 11.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 7 | BAL @ MIN | 16–24 | -7.4 | -5.0 | -8.0 | 0.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 7 | CAR @ CHI | 3–17 | +5.6 | +2.5 | -14.0 | 19.6 |
| 2017 | 7 | CIN @ PIT | 14–29 | -3.1 | -4.0 | -15.0 | 11.9 |
| 2017 | 7 | DAL @ SF | 40–10 | +3.4 | +6.5 | +30.0 | 26.6 |
| 2017 | 7 | DEN @ LAC | 0–21 | -0.5 | +1.0 | -21.0 | 20.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 7 | JAX @ IND | 27–0 | +7.3 | +3.0 | +27.0 | 19.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 7 | KC @ LV | 30–31 | +6.3 | +3.0 | -1.0 | 7.3 |
| 2017 | 7 | NO @ GB | 26–17 | +7.3 | +3.5 | +9.0 | 1.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 7 | NYJ @ MIA | 28–31 | -2.4 | -3.0 | -3.0 | 0.6 |
| 2017 | 7 | SEA @ NYG | 24–7 | +2.4 | +4.0 | +17.0 | 14.6 |
Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.