Backtest History
2761 graded games
Every graded prediction from the frozen walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and the final margin. Lines are quoted for the home team.
| Season | Wk | Matchup | Score | Model | Close | Result | Model err |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 7 | TB @ BUF | 27–30 | -2.1 | -3.0 | -3.0 | 0.9 |
| 2017 | 7 | TEN @ CLE | 12–9 | +6.1 | +5.5 | +3.0 | 3.1 |
| 2017 | 7 | WAS @ PHI | 24–34 | -4.8 | -5.0 | -10.0 | 5.2 |
| 2017 | 6 | CHI @ BAL | 27–24 | -8.6 | -5.5 | +3.0 | 11.6 |
| 2017 | 6 | CLE @ HOU | 17–33 | -10.2 | -7.5 | -16.0 | 5.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 6 | DET @ NO | 38–52 | -6.7 | -6.0 | -14.0 | 7.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 6 | GB @ MIN | 10–23 | -4.1 | +3.0 | -13.0 | 8.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 6 | IND @ TEN | 22–36 | -9.3 | -7.0 | -14.0 | 4.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 6 | LA @ JAX | 27–17 | -2.9 | -1.0 | +10.0 | 12.9 |
| 2017 | 6 | LAC @ LV | 17–16 | -1.5 | -3.0 | +1.0 | 2.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 6 | MIA @ ATL | 20–17 | -12.7 | -14.0 | +3.0 | 15.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 6 | NE @ NYJ | 24–17 | +7.5 | +9.0 | +7.0 | 0.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 6 | NYG @ DEN | 23–10 | -10.0 | -14.0 | +13.0 | 23.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 6 | PHI @ CAR | 28–23 | -1.6 | -3.0 | +5.0 | 6.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 6 | PIT @ KC | 19–13 | -7.4 | -3.5 | +6.0 | 13.4 |
| 2017 | 6 | SF @ WAS | 24–26 | -11.9 | -12.0 | -2.0 | 9.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 6 | TB @ ARI | 33–38 | +1.1 | +2.5 | -5.0 | 6.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 5 | ARI @ PHI | 7–34 | -6.3 | -6.0 | -27.0 | 20.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 5 | BAL @ LV | 30–17 | -0.7 | -3.0 | +13.0 | 13.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 5 | BUF @ CIN | 16–20 | -2.3 | -3.0 | -4.0 | 1.7 |
| 2017 | 5 | CAR @ DET | 27–24 | -2.2 | -2.0 | +3.0 | 5.2 |
| 2017 | 5 | GB @ DAL | 35–31 | -1.8 | -2.5 | +4.0 | 5.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 5 | JAX @ PIT | 30–9 | -4.6 | -7.5 | +21.0 | 25.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 5 | KC @ HOU | 42–34 | -0.6 | +2.0 | +8.0 | 8.6 |
| 2017 | 5 | LAC @ NYG | 27–22 | -3.9 | -3.0 | +5.0 | 8.9 |
| 2017 | 5 | MIN @ CHI | 20–17 | +6.7 | +3.5 | +3.0 | 3.7 |
| 2017 | 5 | NE @ TB | 19–14 | +2.7 | +3.5 | +5.0 | 2.3 |
| 2017 | 5 | NYJ @ CLE | 17–14 | +2.5 | +1.5 | +3.0 | 0.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 5 | SEA @ LA | 16–10 | -2.8 | -2.0 | +6.0 | 8.8 |
| 2017 | 5 | SF @ IND | 23–26 | +0.2 | +1.0 | -3.0 | 3.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 5 | TEN @ MIA | 10–16 | -1.4 | 0.0 | -6.0 | 4.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 4 | BUF @ ATL | 23–17 | -7.5 | -8.0 | +6.0 | 13.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 4 | CAR @ NE | 33–30 | -10.9 | -9.0 | +3.0 | 13.9 |
| 2017 | 4 | CHI @ GB | 14–35 | -8.3 | -7.5 | -21.0 | 12.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 4 | CIN @ CLE | 31–7 | +1.9 | +3.0 | +24.0 | 22.1 |
| 2017 | 4 | DET @ MIN | 14–7 | -4.7 | -2.5 | +7.0 | 11.7 |
| 2017 | 4 | IND @ SEA | 18–46 | -9.6 | -12.5 | -28.0 | 18.4 |
| 2017 | 4 | JAX @ NYJ | 20–23 | +6.2 | +4.0 | -3.0 | 9.2 |
| 2017 | 4 | LA @ DAL | 35–30 | +0.3 | -5.0 | +5.0 | 4.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 4 | NO vs MIA | 20–0 | +5.9 | +4.0 | +20.0 | 14.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 4 | NYG @ TB | 23–25 | -3.4 | -2.5 | -2.0 | 1.4 |
| 2017 | 4 | LV @ DEN | 10–16 | -4.8 | -3.5 | -6.0 | 1.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 4 | PHI @ LAC | 26–24 | +0.9 | -1.5 | +2.0 | 1.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 4 | PIT @ BAL | 26–9 | +3.3 | +3.5 | +17.0 | 13.7 |
| 2017 | 4 | SF @ ARI | 15–18 | -7.6 | -6.5 | -3.0 | 4.6 |
| 2017 | 4 | TEN @ HOU | 14–57 | -2.0 | +2.5 | -43.0 | 41.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 4 | WAS @ KC | 20–29 | -4.3 | -6.5 | -9.0 | 4.7 |
| 2017 | 3 | ATL @ DET | 30–26 | +3.2 | +3.0 | +4.0 | 0.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 3 | BAL vs JAX | 7–44 | +3.9 | +3.0 | -37.0 | 40.9 |
| 2017 | 3 | CIN @ GB | 24–27 | -7.8 | -7.0 | -3.0 | 4.8 |
Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.