Backtest History
2761 graded games
Every graded prediction from the frozen walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and the final margin. Lines are quoted for the home team.
| Season | Wk | Matchup | Score | Model | Close | Result | Model err |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 6 | LA @ BAL | 17–3 | +11.2 | +7.0 | +14.0 | 2.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 6 | LAC @ MIA | 29–27 | +2.3 | +3.5 | +2.0 | 0.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 6 | NE @ NO | 25–19 | +4.3 | +3.5 | +6.0 | 1.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 6 | PHI @ NYG | 17–34 | +10.6 | +7.0 | -17.0 | 27.6 |
| 2025 | 6 | SEA @ JAX | 20–12 | +2.8 | +1.5 | +8.0 | 5.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 6 | SF @ TB | 19–30 | -3.5 | -3.5 | -11.0 | 7.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 6 | TEN @ LV | 10–20 | -3.3 | -3.5 | -10.0 | 6.7 |
| 2025 | 5 | DAL @ NYJ | 37–22 | +0.2 | -1.5 | +15.0 | 14.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 5 | DEN @ PHI | 21–17 | -2.6 | -3.5 | +4.0 | 6.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 5 | DET @ CIN | 37–24 | +12.6 | +10.5 | +13.0 | 0.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 5 | HOU @ BAL | 44–10 | +5.6 | +2.5 | +34.0 | 28.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 5 | KC @ JAX | 28–31 | +3.0 | +3.5 | -3.0 | 6.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 5 | LV @ IND | 6–40 | -11.6 | -7.0 | -34.0 | 22.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 5 | MIA @ CAR | 24–27 | -0.5 | +1.5 | -3.0 | 2.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 5 | MIN vs CLE | 21–17 | +5.1 | +3.5 | +4.0 | 1.1 |
| 2025 | 5 | NE @ BUF | 23–20 | -6.1 | -7.5 | +3.0 | 9.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 5 | NYG @ NO | 14–26 | -1.6 | -1.5 | -12.0 | 10.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 5 | SF @ LA | 26–23 | -9.0 | -8.5 | +3.0 | 12.0 |
| 2025 | 5 | TB @ SEA | 38–35 | -5.9 | -3.5 | +3.0 | 8.9 |
| 2025 | 5 | TEN @ ARI | 22–21 | -11.4 | -7.5 | +1.0 | 12.4 |
| 2025 | 5 | WAS @ LAC | 27–10 | -2.5 | -2.5 | +17.0 | 19.5 |
| 2025 | 4 | BAL @ KC | 20–37 | +1.8 | +2.5 | -17.0 | 18.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 4 | CAR @ NE | 13–42 | -4.0 | -5.5 | -29.0 | 25.0 |
| 2025 | 4 | CHI @ LV | 25–24 | +1.5 | -1.5 | +1.0 | 0.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 4 | CIN @ DEN | 3–28 | -11.2 | -7.5 | -25.0 | 13.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 4 | CLE @ DET | 10–34 | -13.5 | -10.0 | -24.0 | 10.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 4 | GB @ DAL | 40–40 | +7.7 | +7.0 | 0.0 | 7.7 |
| 2025 | 4 | IND @ LA | 20–27 | +0.9 | -3.5 | -7.0 | 7.9 |
| 2025 | 4 | JAX @ SF | 26–21 | -6.7 | -3.5 | +5.0 | 11.7 |
| 2025 | 4 | LAC @ NYG | 18–21 | +7.8 | +6.0 | -3.0 | 10.8 |
| 2025 | 4 | MIN vs PIT | 21–24 | +4.3 | +2.5 | -3.0 | 7.3 |
| 2025 | 4 | NO @ BUF | 19–31 | -15.3 | -15.5 | -12.0 | 3.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 4 | NYJ @ MIA | 21–27 | -1.9 | -2.5 | -6.0 | 4.1 |
| 2025 | 4 | PHI @ TB | 31–25 | +0.4 | +3.5 | +6.0 | 5.6 |
| 2025 | 4 | SEA @ ARI | 23–20 | +1.8 | +1.5 | +3.0 | 1.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 4 | TEN @ HOU | 0–26 | -9.8 | -7.5 | -26.0 | 16.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 4 | WAS @ ATL | 27–34 | +0.9 | -2.5 | -7.0 | 7.9 |
| 2025 | 3 | ARI @ SF | 15–16 | -1.5 | -1.5 | -1.0 | 0.5 |
| 2025 | 3 | ATL @ CAR | 0–30 | +6.4 | +5.5 | -30.0 | 36.4 |
| 2025 | 3 | CIN @ MIN | 10–48 | -2.2 | -3.0 | -38.0 | 35.8 |
| 2025 | 3 | DAL @ CHI | 14–31 | +1.1 | +1.5 | -17.0 | 18.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 3 | DEN @ LAC | 20–23 | -3.8 | -2.5 | -3.0 | 0.8 |
| 2025 | 3 | DET @ BAL | 38–30 | -5.3 | -4.5 | +8.0 | 13.3 |
| 2025 | 3 | GB @ CLE | 10–13 | +11.1 | +8.5 | -3.0 | 14.1 |
| 2025 | 3 | HOU @ JAX | 10–17 | -3.6 | -1.5 | -7.0 | 3.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 3 | IND @ TEN | 41–20 | +9.3 | +6.0 | +21.0 | 11.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 3 | KC @ NYG | 22–9 | +3.7 | +6.0 | +13.0 | 9.3 |
| 2025 | 3 | LA @ PHI | 26–33 | -2.2 | -3.5 | -7.0 | 4.8 |
| 2025 | 3 | LV @ WAS | 24–41 | -4.8 | -2.5 | -17.0 | 12.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 3 | MIA @ BUF | 21–31 | -16.1 | -12.5 | -10.0 | 6.1 |
Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.