Backtest History
2761 graded games
Every graded prediction from the frozen walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and the final margin. Lines are quoted for the home team.
| Season | Wk | Matchup | Score | Model | Close | Result | Model err |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 3 | NO @ SEA | 13–44 | -6.2 | -7.5 | -31.0 | 24.8 |
| 2025 | 3 | NYJ @ TB | 27–29 | -8.4 | -6.5 | -2.0 | 6.4 |
| 2025 | 3 | PIT @ NE | 21–14 | -1.8 | +1.5 | +7.0 | 8.8 |
| 2025 | 2 | ATL @ MIN | 22–6 | -1.9 | -3.5 | +16.0 | 17.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 2 | BUF @ NYJ | 30–10 | +3.3 | +6.0 | +20.0 | 16.7 |
| 2025 | 2 | CAR @ ARI | 22–27 | -9.1 | -7.0 | -5.0 | 4.1 |
| 2025 | 2 | CHI @ DET | 21–52 | -4.7 | -6.0 | -31.0 | 26.3 |
| 2025 | 2 | CLE @ BAL | 17–41 | -13.2 | -12.5 | -24.0 | 10.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 2 | DEN @ IND | 28–29 | -3.9 | +2.5 | -1.0 | 2.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 2 | JAX @ CIN | 27–31 | -0.5 | -3.5 | -4.0 | 3.5 |
| 2025 | 2 | LA @ TEN | 33–19 | +5.3 | +5.5 | +14.0 | 8.7 |
| 2025 | 2 | LAC @ LV | 20–9 | +2.2 | +3.5 | +11.0 | 8.8 |
| 2025 | 2 | NE @ MIA | 33–27 | +2.1 | -1.5 | +6.0 | 3.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 2 | NYG @ DAL | 37–40 | -6.2 | -4.5 | -3.0 | 3.2 |
| 2025 | 2 | PHI @ KC | 20–17 | +1.1 | +1.5 | +3.0 | 1.9 |
| 2025 | 2 | SEA @ PIT | 31–17 | -4.4 | -3.5 | +14.0 | 18.4 |
| 2025 | 2 | SF @ NO | 26–21 | +1.0 | +3.0 | +5.0 | 4.0 |
| 2025 | 2 | TB @ HOU | 20–19 | -1.5 | -2.5 | +1.0 | 2.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 2 | WAS @ GB | 18–27 | -3.7 | -3.5 | -9.0 | 5.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 1 | ARI @ NO | 20–13 | +9.8 | +6.0 | +7.0 | 2.8 |
| 2025 | 1 | BAL @ BUF | 40–41 | +0.5 | +1.5 | -1.0 | 1.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 1 | CAR @ JAX | 10–26 | -4.9 | -4.5 | -16.0 | 11.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 1 | CIN @ CLE | 17–16 | +8.2 | +5.5 | +1.0 | 7.2 |
| 2025 | 1 | DAL @ PHI | 20–24 | -10.2 | -8.5 | -4.0 | 6.2 |
| 2025 | 1 | DET @ GB | 13–27 | +0.5 | -1.5 | -14.0 | 14.5 |
| 2025 | 1 | HOU @ LA | 9–14 | -5.1 | -3.5 | -5.0 | 0.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 1 | KC vs LAC | 21–27 | +2.6 | +3.0 | -6.0 | 8.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 1 | LV @ NE | 20–13 | -1.2 | -2.5 | +7.0 | 8.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 1 | MIA @ IND | 8–33 | +3.4 | -1.5 | -25.0 | 28.4 |
| 2025 | 1 | MIN @ CHI | 27–24 | +0.6 | +1.5 | +3.0 | 2.4 |
| 2025 | 1 | NYG @ WAS | 6–21 | -8.6 | -6.0 | -15.0 | 6.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 1 | PIT @ NYJ | 34–32 | +2.7 | +3.0 | +2.0 | 0.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 1 | SF @ SEA | 17–13 | +5.3 | +2.5 | +4.0 | 1.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 1 | TB @ ATL | 23–20 | +4.0 | +1.5 | +3.0 | 1.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 1 | TEN @ DEN | 12–20 | -10.2 | -8.5 | -8.0 | 2.2 |
| 2024 | 22 | KC vs PHI | 22–40 | -2.2 | +1.5 | -18.0 | 15.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 21 | BUF @ KC | 29–32 | +2.3 | -1.5 | -3.0 | 5.3 |
| 2024 | 21 | WAS @ PHI | 23–55 | -5.0 | -6.0 | -32.0 | 27.0 |
| 2024 | 20 | BAL @ BUF | 25–27 | +1.5 | +1.5 | -2.0 | 3.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 20 | HOU @ KC | 14–23 | -7.0 | -9.5 | -9.0 | 2.0 |
| 2024 | 20 | LA @ PHI | 22–28 | -6.7 | -7.0 | -6.0 | 0.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 20 | WAS @ DET | 45–31 | -8.9 | -8.5 | +14.0 | 22.9 |
| 2024 | 19 | DEN @ BUF | 7–31 | -3.3 | -7.5 | -24.0 | 20.7 |
| 2024 | 19 | GB @ PHI | 10–22 | -4.3 | -5.5 | -12.0 | 7.7 |
| 2024 | 19 | LAC @ HOU | 12–32 | +5.4 | +3.0 | -20.0 | 25.4 |
| 2024 | 19 | MIN vs LA | 9–27 | +2.1 | +2.5 | -18.0 | 20.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 19 | PIT @ BAL | 14–28 | -14.3 | -9.5 | -14.0 | 0.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 19 | WAS @ TB | 23–20 | -5.4 | -3.0 | +3.0 | 8.4 |
| 2024 | 18 | BUF @ NE | 16–23 | +7.0 | +3.0 | -7.0 | 14.0 |
| 2024 | 18 | CAR @ ATL | 44–38 | -6.7 | -7.5 | +6.0 | 12.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.