Backtest History
2761 graded games
Every graded prediction from the frozen walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and the final margin. Lines are quoted for the home team.
| Season | Wk | Matchup | Score | Model | Close | Result | Model err |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 18 | CHI @ GB | 24–22 | -8.1 | -10.0 | +2.0 | 10.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 18 | CIN @ PIT | 19–17 | +4.3 | +2.5 | +2.0 | 2.3 |
| 2024 | 18 | CLE @ BAL | 10–35 | -23.0 | -19.5 | -25.0 | 2.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 18 | HOU @ TEN | 23–14 | +0.4 | -2.5 | +9.0 | 8.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 18 | JAX @ IND | 23–26 | -4.1 | -3.5 | -3.0 | 1.1 |
| 2024 | 18 | KC @ DEN | 0–38 | -8.2 | -10.5 | -38.0 | 29.8 |
| 2024 | 18 | LAC @ LV | 34–20 | +6.1 | +7.0 | +14.0 | 7.9 |
| 2024 | 18 | MIA @ NYJ | 20–32 | -1.0 | -1.5 | -12.0 | 11.0 |
| 2024 | 18 | MIN @ DET | 9–31 | -4.9 | -3.0 | -22.0 | 17.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 18 | NO @ TB | 19–27 | -19.0 | -14.5 | -8.0 | 11.0 |
| 2024 | 18 | NYG @ PHI | 13–20 | -9.4 | -3.0 | -7.0 | 2.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 18 | SEA @ LA | 30–25 | +1.5 | +7.5 | +5.0 | 3.5 |
| 2024 | 18 | SF @ ARI | 24–47 | -6.9 | -4.5 | -23.0 | 16.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 18 | WAS @ DAL | 23–19 | +5.4 | +7.0 | +4.0 | 1.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 17 | ARI @ LA | 9–13 | -5.0 | -6.5 | -4.0 | 1.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 17 | ATL @ WAS | 24–30 | -5.4 | -3.5 | -6.0 | 0.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 17 | BAL @ HOU | 31–2 | +7.4 | +5.5 | +29.0 | 21.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 17 | CAR @ TB | 14–48 | -11.5 | -9.5 | -34.0 | 22.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 17 | DAL @ PHI | 7–41 | -7.3 | -7.5 | -34.0 | 26.7 |
| 2024 | 17 | DEN @ CIN | 24–30 | -2.7 | -3.5 | -6.0 | 3.3 |
| 2024 | 17 | DET @ SF | 40–34 | +5.0 | +4.0 | +6.0 | 1.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 17 | GB @ MIN | 25–27 | +3.0 | +1.0 | -2.0 | 5.0 |
| 2024 | 17 | IND @ NYG | 33–45 | +8.1 | +7.5 | -12.0 | 20.1 |
| 2024 | 17 | KC @ PIT | 29–10 | +2.3 | +3.0 | +19.0 | 16.7 |
| 2024 | 17 | LAC @ NE | 40–7 | +5.5 | +6.0 | +33.0 | 27.5 |
| 2024 | 17 | LV @ NO | 25–10 | +5.1 | +2.0 | +15.0 | 9.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 17 | MIA @ CLE | 20–3 | +5.4 | +3.0 | +17.0 | 11.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 17 | NYJ @ BUF | 14–40 | -11.0 | -10.0 | -26.0 | 15.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 17 | SEA @ CHI | 6–3 | +1.9 | +3.5 | +3.0 | 1.1 |
| 2024 | 17 | TEN @ JAX | 13–20 | +0.0 | +1.0 | -7.0 | 7.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 16 | ARI @ CAR | 30–36 | +7.2 | +5.5 | -6.0 | 13.2 |
| 2024 | 16 | CLE @ CIN | 6–24 | -14.5 | -10.0 | -18.0 | 3.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 16 | DEN @ LAC | 27–34 | -0.3 | -3.0 | -7.0 | 6.7 |
| 2024 | 16 | DET @ CHI | 34–17 | +10.3 | +7.0 | +17.0 | 6.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 16 | HOU @ KC | 19–27 | -4.2 | -3.5 | -8.0 | 3.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 16 | JAX @ LV | 14–19 | -3.0 | -2.5 | -5.0 | 2.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 16 | LA @ NYJ | 19–9 | +2.6 | +3.0 | +10.0 | 7.4 |
| 2024 | 16 | MIN @ SEA | 27–24 | +4.3 | +2.5 | +3.0 | 1.3 |
| 2024 | 16 | NE @ BUF | 21–24 | -17.1 | -14.0 | -3.0 | 14.1 |
| 2024 | 16 | NO @ GB | 0–34 | -17.6 | -14.0 | -34.0 | 16.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 16 | NYG @ ATL | 7–34 | -6.7 | -9.5 | -27.0 | 20.3 |
| 2024 | 16 | PHI @ WAS | 33–36 | +1.1 | +4.0 | -3.0 | 4.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 16 | PIT @ BAL | 17–34 | -9.1 | -7.0 | -17.0 | 7.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 16 | SF @ MIA | 17–29 | +1.3 | +2.0 | -12.0 | 13.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 16 | TB @ DAL | 24–26 | +6.5 | +4.5 | -2.0 | 8.5 |
| 2024 | 16 | TEN @ IND | 30–38 | -3.4 | -4.0 | -8.0 | 4.6 |
| 2024 | 15 | ATL @ LV | 15–9 | +3.7 | +6.5 | +6.0 | 2.3 |
| 2024 | 15 | BAL @ NYG | 35–14 | +17.4 | +16.5 | +21.0 | 3.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 15 | BUF @ DET | 48–42 | -3.4 | -2.5 | +6.0 | 9.4 |
| 2024 | 15 | CHI @ MIN | 12–30 | -8.6 | -7.0 | -18.0 | 9.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.