2026 Graded Games

748 graded games

Every completed game graded live this season: the projection published before kickoff, the CFBD closing spread, and the final margin. Nothing is re-fit after a result is known. Lines are quoted for the home team.

Pick history

2026 graded games
Season	Wk	Matchup	Score	Model	Close	Result	Model err
2026	3	Villanova @ Long Island University	20–16	+14.4	+18.5	+4.0	10.4 (model closer than the closing line)
2026	3	West Georgia @ East Tennessee State	27–35	-9.5	-16.5	-8.0	1.5 (model closer than the closing line)
2026	3	Coastal Carolina @ Delaware	14–22	-3.7	-4.5	-8.0	4.3
2026	3	Portland State @ Oregon	0–84	-60.2	-58.5	-84.0	23.8 (model closer than the closing line)
2026	3	Houston @ Texas Tech	26–28	-9.9	-7.5	-2.0	7.9
2026	3	Miami @ Wake Forest	33–20	+18.0	+20.5	+13.0	5.0 (model closer than the closing line)
2026	3	Syracuse @ Pittsburgh	13–27	-10.9	-10.5	-14.0	3.1 (model closer than the closing line)
2026	2	New Mexico State @ Hawai'i	19–29	-10.8	-7.5	-10.0	0.8 (model closer than the closing line)
2026	2	Louisiana @ USC	30–49	-31.5	-30.5	-19.0	12.5
2026	2	Sacramento State @ Fresno State	3–49	-15.3	-17.5	-46.0	30.7
2026	2	Montana State @ Nevada	20–7	-1.3	+4.5	+13.0	14.3
2026	2	Arkansas @ Utah	10–43	-14.4	-12.5	-33.0	18.6 (model closer than the closing line)
2026	2	North Dakota State @ Air Force	38–32	+5.1	+1.5	+6.0	0.9 (model closer than the closing line)
2026	2	North Dakota @ Portland State	47–23	+12.7	+25.5	+24.0	11.3
2026	2	Cal Poly @ San José State	20–30	-23.8	-21.5	-10.0	13.8
2026	2	Texas Southern @ UTEP	10–51	-24.6	-27.5	-41.0	16.4
2026	2	Prairie View A&M @ Baylor	3–44	-36.4	-37.5	-41.0	4.6
2026	2	Grambling @ TCU	7–63	-44.3	-44.5	-56.0	11.7
2026	2	Stephen F. Austin @ Abilene Christian	26–7	-2.1	+3.0	+19.0	21.1
2026	2	Southern Miss @ Auburn	8–43	-25.9	-32.5	-35.0	9.1
2026	2	Charlotte @ Ole Miss	9–41	-51.5	-44.5	-32.0	19.5
2026	2	Ohio State @ Texas	23–24	-2.4	-2.5	-1.0	1.4 (model closer than the closing line)
2026	2	Texas Tech @ Oregon State	35–24	+25.2	+25.5	+11.0	14.2 (model closer than the closing line)
2026	2	Iowa State @ Iowa	13–16	-17.2	-14.0	-3.0	14.2
2026	2	Georgia Southern @ Clemson	7–22	-21.7	-19.5	-15.0	6.7
2026	2	Navy @ Florida Atlantic	30–38	+0.2	+4.5	-8.0	8.2 (model closer than the closing line)
2026	2	Louisiana Tech @ LSU	14–45	-37.8	-34.5	-31.0	6.8
2026	2	Fordham @ Coastal Carolina	7–45	-33.2	-36.5	-38.0	4.8
2026	2	San Diego State @ UCLA	10–28	-13.3	-13.5	-18.0	4.7
2026	2	Western Illinois @ Wisconsin	9–36	-42.4	-43.5	-27.0	15.4 (model closer than the closing line)
2026	2	Towson @ South Carolina	9–45	-50.3	-44.5	-36.0	14.3
2026	2	Tennessee @ Georgia Tech	45–24	+8.5	+12.5	+21.0	12.5
2026	2	Western Carolina @ Cincinnati	10–62	-35.1	-36.5	-52.0	16.9
2026	2	Southern @ Houston	6–77	-47.5	-51.5	-71.0	23.5
2026	2	Bowling Green @ Nebraska	7–56	-32.7	-30.5	-49.0	16.3 (model closer than the closing line)
2026	2	Southern Utah @ Colorado State	24–58	-18.7	-19.5	-34.0	15.3
2026	2	Tulsa @ Sam Houston	23–17	+10.7	+12.5	+6.0	4.7 (model closer than the closing line)
2026	2	Illinois State @ Northern Illinois	28–24	+0.4	+2.5	+4.0	3.6
2026	2	South Alabama @ Tulane	24–28	-13.0	-9.5	-4.0	9.0
2026	2	Indiana State @ Eastern Illinois	42–35	-4.6	+3.0	+7.0	11.6
2026	2	Valparaiso @ Murray State	18–27	-6.1	-14.3	-9.0	2.9 (model closer than the closing line)
2026	2	Southeast Missouri State @ Southern Illinois	20–34	-10.6	-7.5	-14.0	3.4 (model closer than the closing line)
2026	2	North Alabama @ SE Louisiana	25–30	-1.6	-6.5	-5.0	3.4
2026	2	Tennessee State @ Alabama A&M	3–30	-1.6	+3.5	-27.0	25.4 (model closer than the closing line)
2026	2	Tarleton State @ McNeese	27–24	+13.3	+19.5	+3.0	10.3 (model closer than the closing line)
2026	2	West Georgia @ Arkansas State	7–52	-29.2	-31.5	-45.0	15.8
2026	2	UT Rio Grande Valley @ Nicholls	28–31	-0.8	+5.5	-3.0	2.2 (model closer than the closing line)
2026	2	Arkansas-Pine Bluff vs Alcorn State	51–53	+0.5	-8.5	-2.0	2.5 (model closer than the closing line)
2026	2	Samford @ Tennessee Tech	19–45	-19.5	-26.5	-26.0	6.5
2026	2	Northwestern State @ East Texas A&M	14–38	-22.2	-20.5	-24.0	1.8 (model closer than the closing line)

Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line. Model is the published market-informed line, not the pure projection.