2026 Graded Games

748 graded games

Every completed game graded live this season: the projection published before kickoff, the CFBD closing spread, and the final margin. Nothing is re-fit after a result is known. Lines are quoted for the home team.

Pick history

2026 graded games
Season	Wk	Matchup	Score	Model	Close	Result	Model err
2026	2	Georgia State @ Kennesaw State	31–17	-5.2	-7.5	+14.0	19.2 (model closer than the closing line)
2026	2	Middle Tennessee @ Marshall	26–28	-14.1	-12.5	-2.0	12.1
2026	2	Lindenwood @ Missouri State	14–48	-20.1	-16.5	-34.0	13.9 (model closer than the closing line)
2026	2	New Haven @ South Dakota State	14–57	-30.9	-42.5	-43.0	12.1
2026	2	Monmouth @ Western Michigan	14–49	-26.9	-29.5	-35.0	8.1
2026	2	Memphis @ Boise State	20–38	-7.3	-9.5	-18.0	10.7
2026	2	Buffalo @ Florida International	20–33	-16.5	-8.5	-13.0	3.5 (model closer than the closing line)
2026	2	Jacksonville State @ Ohio	27–29	-0.9	-1.5	-2.0	1.1
2026	2	Bryant @ Hampton	31–3	-0.7	+3.5	+28.0	28.7
2026	2	Stonehill @ New Hampshire	35–42	-3.6	-13.5	-7.0	3.4 (model closer than the closing line)
2026	2	North Carolina A&T @ North Carolina Central	22–30	-15.1	-24.5	-8.0	7.1 (model closer than the closing line)
2026	2	San Diego @ Idaho State	17–59	-17.5	-22.5	-42.0	24.5
2026	2	Chattanooga @ Eastern Kentucky	17–22	+4.3	+3.0	-5.0	9.3
2026	2	Charleston Southern @ The Citadel	26–20	-5.7	-3.0	+6.0	11.7
2026	2	Gardner-Webb @ Liberty	23–24	-24.5	-28.5	-1.0	23.5 (model closer than the closing line)
2026	2	Furman @ Mercer	20–13	-22.0	-15.5	+7.0	29.0
2026	2	Campbell @ Florida	3–52	-50.9	-51.5	-49.0	1.9 (model closer than the closing line)
2026	2	Merrimack @ Maine	23–14	-5.9	-10.0	+9.0	14.9 (model closer than the closing line)
2026	2	Morehead State @ Austin Peay	7–63	-28.9	-36.5	-56.0	27.1
2026	2	Incarnate Word @ Northern Arizona	28–38	-5.1	-4.5	-10.0	4.9 (model closer than the closing line)
2026	2	Delaware @ Vanderbilt	26–35	-28.4	-20.5	-9.0	19.4
2026	2	UC Davis @ SMU	10–56	-35.3	-32.5	-46.0	10.7 (model closer than the closing line)
2026	2	Northern Colorado @ Wyoming	13–21	-22.0	-23.5	-8.0	14.0 (model closer than the closing line)
2026	2	Mercyhurst @ New Mexico	7–70	-44.2	-42.5	-63.0	18.8 (model closer than the closing line)
2026	2	Lamar @ Idaho	23–17	-7.0	-4.0	+6.0	13.0
2026	2	Stetson @ Bethune-Cookman	18–43	-19.6	-14.5	-25.0	5.4 (model closer than the closing line)
2026	2	Alabama State @ Troy	17–34	-21.2	-23.5	-17.0	4.2 (model closer than the closing line)
2026	2	UNLV @ North Texas	6–44	+1.5	+3.0	-38.0	39.5 (model closer than the closing line)
2026	2	Alabama @ Kentucky	45–17	+11.2	+8.5	+28.0	16.8 (model closer than the closing line)
2026	2	Mississippi State @ Minnesota	38–13	+3.6	-1.0	+25.0	21.4 (model closer than the closing line)
2026	2	Weber State @ Colorado	21–52	-37.5	-38.5	-31.0	6.5 (model closer than the closing line)
2026	2	UCF @ Pittsburgh	7–12	-9.9	-7.0	-5.0	4.9
2026	2	Arizona @ BYU	17–28	-8.9	-7.0	-11.0	2.1 (model closer than the closing line)
2026	2	California @ Syracuse	21–18	-3.6	-4.0	+3.0	6.6 (model closer than the closing line)
2026	2	Duke @ Illinois	31–27	-6.2	-6.5	+4.0	10.2 (model closer than the closing line)
2026	2	Eastern Michigan @ Michigan State	7–35	-16.9	-17.5	-28.0	11.1
2026	2	Maryland @ UConn	38–14	+4.9	+11.5	+24.0	19.1
2026	2	Utah State @ Washington	14–16	-29.6	-28.5	-2.0	27.6
2026	2	Rice @ Notre Dame	0–52	-46.1	-44.5	-52.0	5.9 (model closer than the closing line)
2026	2	UTSA @ Texas State	31–26	-0.6	-1.5	+5.0	5.6 (model closer than the closing line)
2026	2	UL Monroe @ UAB	20–26	-12.6	-9.5	-6.0	6.6
2026	2	Robert Morris @ Akron	10–45	-23.0	-26.5	-35.0	12.0
2026	2	Central Connecticut @ Toledo	10–63	-38.1	-36.5	-53.0	14.9 (model closer than the closing line)
2026	2	Sacred Heart @ Massachusetts	10–37	-16.6	-23.5	-27.0	10.4
2026	2	Wagner @ James Madison	3–87	-46.1	-46.5	-84.0	37.9
2026	2	Utah Tech @ Montana	14–35	-28.1	-36.5	-21.0	7.1 (model closer than the closing line)
2026	2	Stony Brook @ Ball State	17–41	-12.8	-13.5	-24.0	11.2
2026	2	Eastern Washington @ South Dakota	23–41	-14.2	-15.5	-18.0	3.8
2026	2	Duquesne @ Youngstown State	13–70	-22.0	-22.5	-57.0	35.0
2026	2	William & Mary @ Lehigh	20–44	-19.5	-13.5	-24.0	4.5 (model closer than the closing line)

Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line. Model is the published market-informed line, not the pure projection.