2026 Graded Games

748 graded games

Every completed game graded live this season: the projection published before kickoff, the CFBD closing spread, and the final margin. Nothing is re-fit after a result is known. Lines are quoted for the home team.

Pick history

2026 graded games
Season	Wk	Matchup	Score	Model	Close	Result	Model err
2026	2	Drake @ Northern Iowa	14–56	-7.4	-11.5	-42.0	34.6
2026	2	Bucknell @ VMI	14–3	+4.5	+8.5	+11.0	6.5
2026	2	UT Martin @ West Virginia	7–52	-34.6	-41.5	-45.0	10.4
2026	2	Colgate @ Central Michigan	10–13	-17.8	-18.5	-3.0	14.8 (model closer than the closing line)
2026	2	Holy Cross @ Miami (OH)	7–45	-29.1	-30.5	-38.0	8.9
2026	2	Western Kentucky @ Georgia	20–70	-42.8	-40.5	-50.0	7.2 (model closer than the closing line)
2026	2	Marist @ Lafayette	9–13	-6.5	-15.5	-4.0	2.5 (model closer than the closing line)
2026	2	Oklahoma @ Michigan	10–17	+5.2	+5.5	-7.0	12.2 (model closer than the closing line)
2026	2	Arizona State @ Texas A&M	20–48	-20.1	-15.0	-28.0	7.9 (model closer than the closing line)
2026	2	Washington State @ Kansas State	7–34	-15.7	-17.5	-27.0	11.3
2026	2	Oregon @ Oklahoma State	31–39	+28.2	+24.0	-8.0	36.2
2026	2	East Tennessee State @ North Carolina	3–35	-35.8	-35.5	-32.0	3.8
2026	2	Old Dominion @ Virginia Tech	21–44	-18.4	-17.5	-23.0	4.6 (model closer than the closing line)
2026	2	Wake Forest @ Purdue	38–36	+1.8	+2.5	+2.0	0.2 (model closer than the closing line)
2026	2	Howard @ Indiana	0–55	-58.3	-57.5	-55.0	3.3
2026	2	Penn State @ Temple	27–9	+21.0	+24.5	+18.0	3.0 (model closer than the closing line)
2026	2	South Florida @ Army	28–24	+3.1	-3.0	+4.0	0.9 (model closer than the closing line)
2026	2	App State @ East Carolina	27–24	-5.8	-6.5	+3.0	8.8 (model closer than the closing line)
2026	2	Wofford @ Kent State	15–36	-8.7	-10.0	-21.0	12.3
2026	2	Elon @ Rhode Island	10–31	-10.7	-8.5	-21.0	10.3 (model closer than the closing line)
2026	2	UAlbany @ Long Island University	35–13	-0.0	+2.5	+22.0	22.0
2026	2	Missouri @ Kansas	38–21	+5.4	+4.0	+17.0	11.6 (model closer than the closing line)
2026	2	Rutgers @ Boston College	21–28	-6.3	-3.0	-7.0	0.7 (model closer than the closing line)
2026	2	Villanova @ Louisville	13–59	-40.4	-38.5	-46.0	5.6 (model closer than the closing line)
2026	2	Norfolk State @ Virginia	3–59	-49.0	-47.5	-56.0	7.0 (model closer than the closing line)
2026	2	Richmond @ NC State	0–73	-37.9	-33.5	-73.0	35.1 (model closer than the closing line)
2026	2	Florida A&M @ Miami	7–77	-62.1	-59.5	-70.0	7.9 (model closer than the closing line)
2026	1	SMU @ Florida State	27–24	+8.4	+3.0	+3.0	5.4
2026	1	Louisville vs Ole Miss	38–41	-13.9	-6.5	-3.0	10.9
2026	1	Wisconsin vs Notre Dame	13–41	-31.4	-21.0	-28.0	3.4 (model closer than the closing line)
2026	1	Washington State @ Washington	10–24	-16.3	-23.5	-14.0	2.3 (model closer than the closing line)
2026	1	South Carolina State vs Florida A&M	31–13	+13.0	+19.5	+18.0	5.0
2026	1	Texas Southern @ Prairie View A&M	14–52	-7.4	-10.5	-38.0	30.6
2026	1	UCLA @ California	45–24	-0.1	+2.5	+21.0	21.1
2026	1	Western Kentucky @ Nevada	14–49	+11.3	+1.5	-35.0	46.3
2026	1	Morgan State @ Arizona State	7–70	-32.7	-43.5	-63.0	30.3
2026	1	UNLV @ Hawai'i	21–6	+4.6	+3.0	+15.0	10.4 (model closer than the closing line)
2026	1	Central Michigan @ New Mexico	7–38	-5.4	-11.0	-31.0	25.6
2026	1	Mississippi Valley State @ Sacramento State	0–52	-22.2	-38.0	-52.0	29.8
2026	1	UC Davis @ San Diego	49–17	+2.4	+14.5	+32.0	29.6
2026	1	Northern Arizona @ Arizona	7–35	-30.7	-32.5	-28.0	2.7 (model closer than the closing line)
2026	1	Portland State @ San Diego State	20–53	-32.7	-38.5	-33.0	0.3 (model closer than the closing line)
2026	1	Mercyhurst @ New Mexico State	14–51	-18.8	-29.5	-37.0	18.2
2026	1	Butler @ Montana State	24–51	-31.4	-45.5	-27.0	4.4 (model closer than the closing line)
2026	1	Utah Tech @ BYU	7–63	-48.1	-50.5	-56.0	7.9
2026	1	Hampton @ Maryland	0–62	-32.6	-45.5	-62.0	29.4
2026	1	South Dakota State @ Northwestern	18–34	-17.0	-14.0	-16.0	1.0 (model closer than the closing line)
2026	1	South Dakota @ Northern Colorado	38–23	+13.0	+20.5	+15.0	2.0 (model closer than the closing line)
2026	1	Weber State @ Southern Utah	42–47	-17.5	-14.5	-5.0	12.5
2026	1	East Texas A&M @ Stephen F. Austin	7–44	-14.6	-23.5	-37.0	22.4

Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line. Model is the published market-informed line, not the pure projection.