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Every completed game graded live this season: the projection published before kickoff, the CFBD closing spread, and the final margin. Nothing is re-fit after a result is known. Lines are quoted for the home team.
Pick history| Season | Wk | Matchup | Score | Model | Close | Result | Model err |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1 | Lamar @ Louisiana | 7–38 | -10.7 | -20.5 | -31.0 | 20.3 |
| 2026 | 1 | Florida Atlantic @ Florida | 21–66 | -22.5 | -26.5 | -45.0 | 22.5 |
| 2026 | 1 | Clemson @ LSU | 10–51 | -10.4 | -10.0 | -41.0 | 30.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 1 | UL Monroe @ Mississippi State | 13–62 | -27.8 | -28.5 | -49.0 | 21.2 |
| 2026 | 1 | VMI @ Virginia Tech | 3–73 | -35.2 | -54.5 | -70.0 | 34.8 |
| 2026 | 1 | Western Michigan @ Michigan | 12–13 | -21.8 | -27.5 | -1.0 | 20.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 1 | Northwestern State @ Louisiana Tech | 6–80 | -28.2 | -44.5 | -74.0 | 45.8 |
| 2026 | 1 | Missouri State @ Texas A&M | 0–50 | -45.6 | -38.5 | -50.0 | 4.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 1 | Austin Peay @ Vanderbilt | 9–28 | -27.3 | -29.0 | -19.0 | 8.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 1 | Abilene Christian @ Texas Tech | 10–33 | -41.8 | -45.5 | -23.0 | 18.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 1 | Nicholls @ Kansas State | 3–71 | -28.4 | -41.5 | -68.0 | 39.6 |
| 2026 | 1 | Idaho State @ Utah State | 29–17 | -12.0 | -15.5 | +12.0 | 24.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 1 | Arkansas State @ Memphis | 24–42 | -16.6 | -10.5 | -18.0 | 1.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 1 | Houston Christian @ Rice | 3–31 | -9.5 | -22.5 | -28.0 | 18.5 |
| 2026 | 1 | Florida International @ South Florida | 9–19 | -22.1 | -14.5 | -10.0 | 12.1 |
| 2026 | 1 | Chicago State @ UT Martin | 7–42 | +2.0 | -45.5 | -35.0 | 37.0 |
| 2026 | 1 | Illinois State @ Western Illinois | 41–10 | +11.2 | +20.5 | +31.0 | 19.8 |
| 2026 | 1 | Murray State @ Middle Tennessee | 14–38 | -20.1 | -22.5 | -24.0 | 3.9 |
| 2026 | 1 | West Florida @ Central Arkansas | 42–14 | -3.0 | -7.5 | +28.0 | 31.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 1 | Northern Iowa @ Eastern Washington | 24–34 | -4.7 | -7.0 | -10.0 | 5.3 |
| 2026 | 1 | Eastern Kentucky @ Jacksonville State | 7–49 | -6.7 | -22.5 | -42.0 | 35.3 |
| 2026 | 1 | Charleston Southern @ Georgia Southern | 0–31 | -16.4 | -28.5 | -31.0 | 14.6 |
| 2026 | 1 | SE Louisiana @ South Alabama | 14–39 | -9.5 | -13.5 | -25.0 | 15.5 |
| 2026 | 1 | Sam Houston @ Troy | 21–24 | -15.2 | -16.5 | -3.0 | 12.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 1 | Wyoming @ Colorado State | 13–35 | -3.9 | -2.5 | -22.0 | 18.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 1 | Elon @ Davidson | 38–0 | +13.1 | +32.5 | +38.0 | 24.9 |
| 2026 | 1 | Delaware State @ William & Mary | 15–22 | -4.5 | -9.5 | -7.0 | 2.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 1 | Norfolk State @ Old Dominion | 10–31 | -23.9 | -41.5 | -21.0 | 2.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 1 | Villanova @ Bucknell | 17–16 | +11.1 | +22.5 | +1.0 | 10.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 1 | Presbyterian @ Mercer | 3–62 | -7.3 | -22.5 | -59.0 | 51.7 |
| 2026 | 1 | Tennessee Tech @ Chattanooga | 24–9 | +0.4 | +10.5 | +15.0 | 14.6 |
| 2026 | 1 | Richmond @ Howard | 28–21 | +3.5 | +14.0 | +7.0 | 3.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 1 | Alcorn State @ Southern Miss | 3–49 | -21.1 | -19.5 | -46.0 | 24.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 1 | North Alabama @ Arkansas | 14–31 | -28.3 | -40.5 | -17.0 | 11.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 1 | Northern Illinois @ Iowa | 0–40 | -33.8 | -31.5 | -40.0 | 6.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 1 | St. Thomas (MN) @ North Dakota | 26–62 | -15.6 | -28.5 | -36.0 | 20.4 |
| 2026 | 1 | Oklahoma State @ Tulsa | 10–24 | -6.6 | +13.5 | -14.0 | 7.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 1 | Baylor vs Auburn | 16–17 | -8.2 | -6.5 | -1.0 | 7.2 |
| 2026 | 1 | Furman @ Tennessee | 9–56 | -41.0 | -49.5 | -47.0 | 6.0 |
| 2026 | 1 | Texas State @ Texas | 7–59 | -26.2 | -29.5 | -52.0 | 25.8 |
| 2026 | 1 | Boston College @ Cincinnati | 15–34 | -10.8 | -7.0 | -19.0 | 8.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 1 | Tulane @ Duke | 3–17 | -0.7 | -9.5 | -14.0 | 13.3 |
| 2026 | 1 | Boise State @ Oregon | 27–34 | -31.0 | -24.5 | -7.0 | 24.0 |
| 2026 | 1 | Marshall @ Penn State | 0–45 | -19.1 | -23.5 | -45.0 | 25.9 |
| 2026 | 1 | The Citadel @ Charlotte | 43–41 | -8.9 | -20.5 | +2.0 | 10.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 1 | Towson @ Navy | 15–42 | -13.1 | -31.5 | -27.0 | 13.9 |
| 2026 | 1 | UT Rio Grande Valley @ UTSA | 16–45 | -22.7 | -28.5 | -29.0 | 6.3 |
| 2026 | 1 | Fordham @ North Dakota State | 0–38 | -36.4 | -41.5 | -38.0 | 1.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 1 | Western Carolina @ Campbell | 0–0 | +2.4 | +4.0 | 0.0 | 2.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 1 | Maine @ App State | 3–55 | -9.5 | -21.0 | -52.0 | 42.5 |
Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line. Model is the published market-informed line, not the pure projection.