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Every completed game graded live this season: the projection published before kickoff, the CFBD closing spread, and the final margin. Nothing is re-fit after a result is known. Lines are quoted for the home team.
Pick history| Season | Wk | Matchup | Score | Model | Close | Result | Model err |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1 | Tennessee State @ Georgia | 3–63 | -55.7 | -49.5 | -60.0 | 4.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 1 | Drake @ Montana | 10–45 | -12.5 | -35.5 | -35.0 | 22.5 |
| 2026 | 1 | Rhode Island @ Temple | 14–38 | -4.3 | -14.5 | -24.0 | 19.7 |
| 2026 | 1 | Sacred Heart @ Monmouth | 24–31 | -9.1 | -12.0 | -7.0 | 2.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 1 | Gardner-Webb @ Wofford | 13–17 | -7.0 | -8.5 | -4.0 | 3.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 1 | Youngstown State @ Kentucky | 13–45 | -15.9 | -22.5 | -32.0 | 16.1 |
| 2026 | 1 | Southeast Missouri State @ Iowa State | 10–38 | -20.6 | -29.5 | -28.0 | 7.4 |
| 2026 | 1 | Duquesne @ Air Force | 0–34 | -5.6 | -31.5 | -34.0 | 28.4 |
| 2026 | 1 | Holy Cross @ Colgate | 10–35 | -8.1 | -4.5 | -25.0 | 16.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 1 | Kent State @ South Carolina | 0–57 | -37.3 | -35.5 | -57.0 | 19.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 1 | Miami (OH) @ Pittsburgh | 14–59 | -16.3 | -16.5 | -45.0 | 28.7 |
| 2026 | 1 | Ball State @ Ohio State | 3–56 | -55.7 | -50.5 | -53.0 | 2.7 |
| 2026 | 1 | Lehigh @ Georgetown | 45–14 | +19.9 | +22.5 | +31.0 | 11.1 |
| 2026 | 1 | East Carolina @ Alabama | 10–48 | -27.4 | -28.0 | -38.0 | 10.6 |
| 2026 | 1 | Oregon State @ Houston | 20–33 | -19.4 | -21.0 | -13.0 | 6.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 1 | Coastal Carolina @ West Virginia | 24–31 | -11.1 | -21.0 | -7.0 | 4.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 1 | New Hampshire @ Syracuse | 3–66 | -19.6 | -35.5 | -63.0 | 43.4 |
| 2026 | 1 | North Texas @ Indiana | 16–52 | -27.5 | -39.5 | -36.0 | 8.5 |
| 2026 | 1 | Ohio @ Nebraska | 21–49 | -18.5 | -23.5 | -28.0 | 9.5 |
| 2026 | 1 | Lafayette @ UConn | 7–56 | -14.5 | -21.5 | -49.0 | 34.5 |
| 2026 | 1 | Bryant @ Army | 3–59 | -2.3 | -37.5 | -56.0 | 53.7 |
| 2026 | 1 | Tarleton State @ Bowling Green | 20–13 | +10.4 | -1.5 | +7.0 | 3.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 1 | Stonehill @ New Haven | 21–3 | -9.5 | -6.5 | +18.0 | 27.5 |
| 2026 | 1 | Liberty @ James Madison | 13–20 | -10.0 | -6.0 | -7.0 | 3.0 |
| 2026 | 1 | Miami @ Stanford | 45–6 | +28.1 | +24.5 | +39.0 | 10.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 1 | Fresno State @ USC | 0–39 | -26.1 | -21.5 | -39.0 | 12.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 1 | UTEP @ Oklahoma | 0–51 | -40.1 | -40.5 | -51.0 | 10.9 |
| 2026 | 1 | Long Island University @ Kansas | 6–51 | -26.2 | -44.5 | -45.0 | 18.8 |
| 2026 | 1 | Toledo @ Michigan State | 20–30 | +3.6 | -10.0 | -10.0 | 13.6 |
| 2026 | 1 | Indiana State @ Purdue | 19–44 | -25.5 | -35.5 | -25.0 | 0.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 1 | North Carolina A&T @ Georgia State | 10–59 | -19.9 | -28.5 | -49.0 | 29.1 |
| 2026 | 1 | San José State @ Eastern Michigan | 27–21 | +0.4 | -1.5 | +6.0 | 5.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 1 | Idaho @ Utah | 14–66 | -37.6 | -38.0 | -52.0 | 14.4 |
| 2026 | 1 | UAB @ Illinois | 23–42 | -17.8 | -25.5 | -19.0 | 1.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 1 | Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Missouri | 14–54 | -48.2 | -55.5 | -40.0 | 8.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 1 | Colorado @ Georgia Tech | 14–13 | -9.7 | -6.5 | +1.0 | 10.7 |
| 2026 | 1 | Eastern Illinois @ Minnesota | 7–59 | -24.9 | -42.5 | -52.0 | 27.1 |
| 2026 | 1 | Bethune-Cookman @ UCF | 6–73 | -26.4 | -43.5 | -67.0 | 40.6 |
| 2026 | 1 | Akron @ Wake Forest | 16–38 | -15.9 | -27.5 | -22.0 | 6.1 |
| 2026 | 1 | Merrimack @ Delaware | 7–42 | -7.3 | -31.5 | -35.0 | 27.7 |
| 2026 | 1 | West Georgia @ Kennesaw State | 0–47 | -7.9 | -22.5 | -47.0 | 39.1 |
| 2026 | 1 | UAlbany @ Buffalo | 17–21 | -1.7 | -18.5 | -4.0 | 2.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 1 | Lindenwood @ Stony Brook | 32–36 | -1.1 | -4.0 | -4.0 | 2.9 |
| 2026 | 1 | Southern Illinois @ Samford | 22–18 | +11.1 | +20.5 | +4.0 | 7.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 1 | Massachusetts @ Rutgers | 37–21 | -37.3 | -29.5 | +16.0 | 53.3 |
| 2026 | 1 | Memphis @ UNLV | 27–21 | -3.8 | -4.5 | +6.0 | 9.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 1 | Montana State @ Utah Tech | 54–0 | +22.2 | +32.5 | +54.0 | 31.8 |
| 2026 | 1 | Southern Utah @ Montana | 21–28 | -6.2 | -15.5 | -7.0 | 0.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 1 | Prairie View A&M @ Tarleton State | 30–49 | -12.2 | -19.5 | -19.0 | 6.8 |
| 2026 | 1 | Jackson State @ Tennessee State | 26–24 | +15.0 | +12.5 | +2.0 | 13.0 |
Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line. Model is the published market-informed line, not the pure projection.