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Every completed game graded live this season: the projection published before kickoff, the CFBD closing spread, and the final margin. Nothing is re-fit after a result is known. Lines are quoted for the home team.
Pick history| Season | Wk | Matchup | Score | Model | Close | Result | Model err |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1 | Mississippi Valley State @ Nicholls | 10–44 | -14.2 | -28.5 | -34.0 | 19.8 |
| 2026 | 1 | Southern Illinois @ West Florida | 31–34 | +7.5 | +19.5 | -3.0 | 10.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 1 | Maine @ Towson | 21–18 | +3.1 | -2.5 | +3.0 | 0.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 1 | Stony Brook @ Delaware State | 34–41 | +1.7 | +4.5 | -7.0 | 8.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 1 | Mercyhurst @ Youngstown State | 10–43 | -16.8 | -30.5 | -33.0 | 16.2 |
Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line. Model is the published market-informed line, not the pure projection.