2026 Graded Games

748 graded games

Every completed game graded live this season: the projection published before kickoff, the CFBD closing spread, and the final margin. Nothing is re-fit after a result is known. Lines are quoted for the home team.

Pick history

2026 graded games
Season	Wk	Matchup	Score	Model	Close	Result	Model err
2026	6	Richmond @ Fordham	14–20	+4.5	+8.5	-6.0	10.5 (model closer than the closing line)
2026	6	Eastern Illinois @ Gardner-Webb	21–7	-15.8	-12.5	+14.0	29.8
2026	6	UT Martin @ Tennessee State	42–28	+4.5	+8.5	+14.0	9.5
2026	6	Furman @ Tennessee Tech	15–20	-15.6	-13.5	-5.0	10.6
2026	6	Idaho @ Weber State	27–38	+4.3	+4.0	-11.0	15.3
2026	6	Western Carolina @ Mercer	14–17	-8.6	-7.5	-3.0	5.6
2026	6	Mississippi Valley State @ Texas Southern	38–34	-15.2	-14.0	+4.0	19.2
2026	6	Southern @ Prairie View A&M	28–14	-17.8	-15.5	+14.0	31.8
2026	6	Miami (OH) @ Massachusetts	20–19	+4.4	+6.0	+1.0	3.4 (model closer than the closing line)
2026	6	Wofford @ Elon	16–0	-3.7	-3.5	+16.0	19.7
2026	6	Southern Illinois @ South Dakota	10–31	-10.6	-10.5	-21.0	10.4 (model closer than the closing line)
2026	6	Drake @ Valparaiso	13–21	+4.8	+9.5	-8.0	12.8 (model closer than the closing line)
2026	6	Stetson @ St. Thomas (MN)	21–64	-27.8	-22.5	-43.0	15.2 (model closer than the closing line)
2026	6	East Tennessee State @ The Citadel	34–16	+8.4	+7.0	+18.0	9.6 (model closer than the closing line)
2026	6	Southeast Missouri State @ Lindenwood	38–27	+3.6	+4.5	+11.0	7.4
2026	6	Harvard @ Cornell	41–29	+7.7	+7.0	+12.0	4.3 (model closer than the closing line)
2026	6	Youngstown State @ Indiana State	57–24	+16.8	+19.5	+33.0	16.2
2026	6	Long Island University @ Duquesne	17–14	-3.4	-3.5	+3.0	6.4 (model closer than the closing line)
2026	6	Howard @ Pennsylvania	20–24	-11.4	-11.5	-4.0	7.4 (model closer than the closing line)
2026	6	William & Mary @ North Carolina Central	17–14	-3.5	-2.5	+3.0	6.5
2026	6	San Diego @ Butler	10–41	-4.2	+1.5	-31.0	26.8 (model closer than the closing line)
2026	6	Samford @ Chattanooga	3–19	-13.2	-11.5	-16.0	2.8 (model closer than the closing line)
2026	6	Old Dominion @ App State	10–3	-8.4	-9.0	+7.0	15.4 (model closer than the closing line)
2026	6	South Carolina @ Florida	38–19	-11.8	-10.5	+19.0	30.8
2026	6	Ball State @ Northwestern	14–45	-35.9	-34.8	-31.0	4.9
2026	6	Bucknell @ Georgetown	14–21	-1.2	-2.5	-7.0	5.8
2026	6	Texas A&M @ Missouri	6–27	-0.9	-4.5	-21.0	20.1
2026	6	Arizona @ West Virginia	52–31	+5.3	+3.5	+21.0	15.7 (model closer than the closing line)
2026	6	UCF @ Oklahoma State	28–42	-5.5	-10.3	-14.0	8.5
2026	6	North Carolina @ Pittsburgh	21–17	-7.1	-3.5	+4.0	11.1
2026	6	Wake Forest @ NC State	38–14	+0.9	+3.8	+24.0	23.1
2026	6	Indiana @ Nebraska	20–17	+8.2	+9.0	+3.0	5.2 (model closer than the closing line)
2026	6	Tulane @ Army	17–20	-4.7	-5.5	-3.0	1.7 (model closer than the closing line)
2026	6	Sacramento State @ Bowling Green	10–38	-8.4	-9.5	-28.0	19.6
2026	6	New Hampshire @ North Carolina A&T	27–30	+5.7	+5.5	-3.0	8.7
2026	6	Stonehill @ Sacred Heart	28–7	-10.2	-7.0	+21.0	31.2
2026	6	Bryant @ Brown	13–28	-7.9	-5.5	-15.0	7.1 (model closer than the closing line)
2026	6	Dartmouth @ Yale	7–28	-6.8	-7.0	-21.0	14.2
2026	6	Robert Morris @ Morgan State	27–28	-7.6	-10.0	-1.0	6.6 (model closer than the closing line)
2026	6	Princeton @ Wagner	28–13	+16.0	+25.5	+15.0	1.0 (model closer than the closing line)
2026	6	Morehead State @ Dayton	28–56	-23.9	-21.5	-28.0	4.1 (model closer than the closing line)
2026	6	Iowa State @ BYU	10–24	-11.6	-11.3	-14.0	2.4 (model closer than the closing line)
2026	6	Iowa @ Washington	41–24	-1.6	-3.0	+17.0	18.6 (model closer than the closing line)
2026	6	Washington State @ Utah State	16–17	-3.0	-4.0	-1.0	2.0 (model closer than the closing line)
2026	6	Wyoming @ San José State	16–13	-6.7	-4.3	+3.0	9.7
2026	6	Florida State @ Louisville	20–44	-3.8	-4.3	-24.0	20.2
2026	6	Columbia @ Marist	41–28	+0.0	+3.5	+13.0	13.0
2026	6	South Florida @ UTSA	24–31	-5.4	-5.5	-7.0	1.6
2026	6	South Alabama @ Arkansas State	56–49	-2.1	-3.0	+7.0	9.1 (model closer than the closing line)
2026	6	Sam Houston @ Liberty	3–35	-13.7	-13.5	-32.0	18.3 (model closer than the closing line)

Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line. Model is the published market-informed line, not the pure projection.