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Every completed game graded live this season: the projection published before kickoff, the CFBD closing spread, and the final margin. Nothing is re-fit after a result is known. Lines are quoted for the home team.
Pick history| Season | Wk | Matchup | Score | Model | Close | Result | Model err |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6 | Missouri State @ Western Kentucky | 13–34 | -3.3 | +1.8 | -21.0 | 17.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 6 | New Mexico State @ Florida International | 3–22 | -6.3 | -7.0 | -19.0 | 12.7 |
| 2026 | 6 | Jacksonville State @ Kennesaw State | 27–26 | +1.2 | +3.0 | +1.0 | 0.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 6 | Southern Miss @ Troy | 34–55 | -9.0 | -9.5 | -21.0 | 12.0 |
| 2026 | 5 | San José State @ Hawai'i | 20–16 | -3.4 | -2.8 | +4.0 | 7.4 |
| 2026 | 5 | Cincinnati @ Arizona | 7–34 | -6.6 | -6.8 | -27.0 | 20.4 |
| 2026 | 5 | Baylor @ Arizona State | 55–19 | -3.5 | -3.5 | +36.0 | 39.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 5 | Texas State @ San Diego State | 29–31 | +4.6 | +9.8 | -2.0 | 6.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 5 | Eastern Washington @ UC Davis | 38–49 | -6.7 | -8.5 | -11.0 | 4.3 |
| 2026 | 5 | Fresno State @ Washington State | 26–6 | -2.7 | -2.3 | +20.0 | 22.7 |
| 2026 | 5 | Indiana @ Rutgers | 47–15 | +23.8 | +24.3 | +32.0 | 8.2 |
| 2026 | 5 | West Florida @ Abilene Christian | 7–35 | -7.9 | -7.0 | -28.0 | 20.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 5 | Weber State @ Cal Poly | 42–34 | -6.3 | -6.0 | +8.0 | 14.3 |
| 2026 | 5 | Northern Arizona @ Idaho State | 38–31 | -9.3 | -7.5 | +7.0 | 16.3 |
| 2026 | 5 | Southern Utah @ Utah Tech | 46–33 | +12.1 | +10.5 | +13.0 | 0.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 5 | Arkansas State @ Louisiana | 20–23 | -6.2 | -5.3 | -3.0 | 3.2 |
| 2026 | 5 | McNeese @ LSU | 14–63 | -58.0 | -53.3 | -49.0 | 9.0 |
| 2026 | 5 | Texas Tech @ Colorado | 29–7 | +13.3 | +13.5 | +22.0 | 8.7 |
| 2026 | 5 | Miami @ Clemson | 41–13 | +14.7 | +14.8 | +28.0 | 13.3 |
| 2026 | 5 | Washington @ USC | 21–25 | -10.0 | -8.3 | -4.0 | 6.0 |
| 2026 | 5 | Utah State @ Boise State | 18–37 | -19.5 | -19.5 | -19.0 | 0.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 5 | Temple @ South Florida | 17–13 | -8.5 | -5.5 | +4.0 | 12.5 |
| 2026 | 5 | Army @ Louisiana Tech | 29–31 | +3.8 | -0.3 | -2.0 | 5.8 |
| 2026 | 5 | Arkansas @ Texas A&M | 7–34 | -16.7 | -13.8 | -27.0 | 10.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 5 | BYU @ TCU | 17–10 | +4.7 | +5.8 | +7.0 | 2.3 |
| 2026 | 5 | UTSA @ Rice | 16–14 | +12.7 | +12.0 | +2.0 | 10.7 |
| 2026 | 5 | Chicago State @ Tarleton State | 21–56 | -40.5 | -50.5 | -35.0 | 5.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 5 | Colgate @ Harvard | 17–20 | -8.9 | -4.5 | -3.0 | 5.9 |
| 2026 | 5 | South Dakota State @ Illinois State | 31–14 | +0.8 | +2.5 | +17.0 | 16.2 |
| 2026 | 5 | UT Rio Grande Valley @ East Texas A&M | 17–20 | +6.2 | +10.5 | -3.0 | 9.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 5 | Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Southern | 41–10 | -4.3 | -3.0 | +31.0 | 35.3 |
| 2026 | 5 | Northwestern State @ Lamar | 14–42 | -36.9 | -40.5 | -28.0 | 8.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 5 | Nicholls @ Houston Christian | 2–16 | -3.6 | -1.5 | -14.0 | 10.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 5 | Georgia Southern @ Coastal Carolina | 31–24 | +1.6 | +2.3 | +7.0 | 5.4 |
| 2026 | 5 | UL Monroe @ South Alabama | 35–52 | -16.0 | -13.3 | -17.0 | 1.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 5 | Oregon State @ Colorado State | 56–26 | +5.2 | +7.0 | +30.0 | 24.8 |
| 2026 | 5 | Texas Southern @ Florida Atlantic | 10–66 | -41.7 | -45.8 | -56.0 | 14.3 |
| 2026 | 5 | North Carolina A&T @ Bryant | 30–31 | -13.2 | -13.5 | -1.0 | 12.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 5 | Campbell @ North Carolina Central | 38–31 | +5.8 | +13.5 | +7.0 | 1.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 5 | North Alabama @ Eastern Kentucky | 20–16 | +2.0 | -1.5 | +4.0 | 2.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 5 | Gardner-Webb @ Charleston Southern | 12–10 | +8.0 | +7.0 | +2.0 | 6.0 |
| 2026 | 5 | Incarnate Word @ Stephen F. Austin | 26–28 | -20.1 | -18.5 | -2.0 | 18.1 |
| 2026 | 5 | Tennessee Tech @ Western Carolina | 20–44 | +9.1 | +13.5 | -24.0 | 33.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 5 | Youngstown State @ Southern Illinois | 28–16 | +4.9 | +4.0 | +12.0 | 7.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 5 | New Haven @ Austin Peay | 17–42 | -33.4 | -35.5 | -25.0 | 8.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 5 | Alabama A&M vs Jackson State | 28–31 | -9.6 | -10.0 | -3.0 | 6.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 5 | Kentucky @ South Carolina | 35–34 | -2.8 | -2.5 | +1.0 | 3.8 |
| 2026 | 5 | Purdue @ Illinois | 24–17 | -11.2 | -9.8 | +7.0 | 18.2 |
| 2026 | 5 | Maryland @ Nebraska | 23–48 | -15.8 | -15.0 | -25.0 | 9.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 5 | UTEP @ New Mexico | 7–61 | -22.9 | -23.3 | -54.0 | 31.1 |
Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line. Model is the published market-informed line, not the pure projection.