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Every completed game graded live this season: the projection published before kickoff, the CFBD closing spread, and the final margin. Nothing is re-fit after a result is known. Lines are quoted for the home team.
Pick history| Season | Wk | Matchup | Score | Model | Close | Result | Model err |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5 | Northern Colorado @ Montana | 14–36 | -19.1 | -21.5 | -22.0 | 2.9 |
| 2026 | 5 | Tennessee State @ Western Illinois | 21–28 | -8.3 | -12.5 | -7.0 | 1.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 5 | Davidson @ San Diego | 14–63 | -21.2 | -18.5 | -49.0 | 27.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 5 | Alabama State @ Bethune-Cookman | 10–16 | +6.4 | +7.0 | -6.0 | 12.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 5 | Marshall @ James Madison | 17–45 | -19.3 | -16.3 | -28.0 | 8.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 5 | Florida @ Missouri | 17–45 | +6.0 | +5.5 | -28.0 | 34.0 |
| 2026 | 5 | Auburn @ Tennessee | 14–24 | -7.1 | -6.3 | -10.0 | 2.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 5 | California @ UNLV | 31–39 | -1.4 | -1.8 | -8.0 | 6.6 |
| 2026 | 5 | Louisville @ NC State | 28–31 | +2.1 | +4.3 | -3.0 | 5.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 5 | Virginia @ Florida State | 7–38 | +1.0 | +1.3 | -31.0 | 32.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 5 | Ohio State @ Iowa | 31–14 | +13.6 | +14.3 | +17.0 | 3.4 |
| 2026 | 5 | Samford @ UAB | 14–33 | -28.6 | -30.5 | -19.0 | 9.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 5 | Wyoming @ North Dakota State | 0–28 | -17.6 | -17.3 | -28.0 | 10.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 5 | Akron @ Central Michigan | 17–41 | -6.8 | -6.8 | -24.0 | 17.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 5 | Eastern Michigan @ Massachusetts | 38–14 | -4.8 | -5.8 | +24.0 | 28.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 5 | Ohio @ Kent State | 13–10 | +5.9 | +3.5 | +3.0 | 2.9 |
| 2026 | 5 | Bowling Green @ Miami (OH) | 24–20 | -13.5 | -11.3 | +4.0 | 17.5 |
| 2026 | 5 | Sacred Heart @ Maine | 24–16 | -2.8 | -2.5 | +8.0 | 10.8 |
| 2026 | 5 | Delaware State @ UAlbany | 3–28 | -3.3 | -1.5 | -25.0 | 21.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 5 | Holy Cross @ William & Mary | 41–14 | -5.9 | -6.0 | +27.0 | 32.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 5 | Chattanooga @ East Tennessee State | 3–14 | -3.1 | -3.0 | -11.0 | 7.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 5 | Old Dominion @ Georgia State | 10–42 | -2.0 | -2.0 | -32.0 | 30.0 |
| 2026 | 5 | Howard vs Hampton | 27–13 | +10.6 | +10.0 | +14.0 | 3.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 5 | Indiana State @ South Dakota | 14–44 | -20.7 | -16.5 | -30.0 | 9.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 5 | Alcorn State @ Grambling | 59–63 | -5.9 | -6.0 | -4.0 | 1.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 5 | Prairie View A&M @ Mississippi Valley State | 27–28 | +27.7 | +29.5 | -1.0 | 28.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 5 | Toledo @ Ball State | 39–24 | +19.8 | +20.8 | +15.0 | 4.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 5 | Murray State @ North Dakota | 28–55 | -35.4 | -37.5 | -27.0 | 8.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 5 | Norfolk State @ Robert Morris | 31–33 | -0.9 | -1.5 | -2.0 | 1.1 |
| 2026 | 5 | The Citadel @ South Carolina State | 34–31 | -15.1 | -17.5 | +3.0 | 18.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 5 | Wofford @ Furman | 32–25 | -4.3 | -4.0 | +7.0 | 11.3 |
| 2026 | 5 | Pennsylvania @ Dartmouth | 10–14 | -5.7 | -8.5 | -4.0 | 1.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 5 | Mercer @ VMI | 54–3 | +27.0 | +34.5 | +51.0 | 24.0 |
| 2026 | 5 | Western Michigan @ Buffalo | 20–17 | +14.2 | +13.3 | +3.0 | 11.2 |
| 2026 | 5 | Elon @ New Hampshire | 23–30 | +4.7 | +7.5 | -7.0 | 11.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 5 | Towson @ Monmouth | 40–41 | -10.0 | -10.5 | -1.0 | 9.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 5 | Morgan State @ Villanova | 38–35 | -11.9 | -16.5 | +3.0 | 14.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 5 | Dayton @ Drake | 22–30 | +1.4 | +3.0 | -8.0 | 9.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 5 | Marist @ Stetson | 28–14 | +16.1 | +10.5 | +14.0 | 2.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 5 | Valparaiso @ Morehead State | 37–3 | +0.6 | +3.5 | +34.0 | 33.4 |
| 2026 | 5 | Vanderbilt @ Georgia | 14–38 | -22.5 | -25.5 | -24.0 | 1.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 5 | Michigan State @ Wisconsin | 3–31 | -8.5 | -8.8 | -28.0 | 19.5 |
| 2026 | 5 | Cornell @ Georgetown | 35–14 | +6.7 | +8.5 | +21.0 | 14.3 |
| 2026 | 5 | Richmond @ Lafayette | 40–31 | +0.3 | +6.5 | +9.0 | 8.7 |
| 2026 | 5 | Alabama @ Mississippi State | 56–23 | +7.7 | +5.5 | +33.0 | 25.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 5 | Middle Tennessee @ Kansas | 0–55 | -20.9 | -21.0 | -55.0 | 34.1 |
| 2026 | 5 | UCF @ Houston | 17–27 | -11.3 | -10.5 | -10.0 | 1.3 |
| 2026 | 5 | West Virginia @ Iowa State | 42–45 | -5.2 | -3.0 | -3.0 | 2.2 |
| 2026 | 5 | Boston College @ SMU | 16–25 | -20.9 | -21.5 | -9.0 | 11.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 5 | Notre Dame @ North Carolina | 37–26 | +21.9 | +21.0 | +11.0 | 10.9 |
Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line. Model is the published market-informed line, not the pure projection.