2026 Graded Games

748 graded games

Every completed game graded live this season: the projection published before kickoff, the CFBD closing spread, and the final margin. Nothing is re-fit after a result is known. Lines are quoted for the home team.

Pick history

2026 graded games
Season	Wk	Matchup	Score	Model	Close	Result	Model err
2026	5	Stanford @ Wake Forest	3–57	-13.0	-14.5	-54.0	41.0
2026	5	Syracuse @ UConn	42–41	+5.0	+6.5	+1.0	4.0 (model closer than the closing line)
2026	5	Michigan @ Minnesota	14–20	+5.8	+6.3	-6.0	11.8 (model closer than the closing line)
2026	5	Navy @ Air Force	9–14	-2.7	-2.8	-5.0	2.3
2026	5	Brown @ Rhode Island	10–13	-10.4	-3.5	-3.0	7.4
2026	5	Princeton @ Columbia	35–7	+0.8	-1.5	+28.0	27.2 (model closer than the closing line)
2026	5	Wagner @ Central Connecticut	14–45	-15.2	-14.0	-31.0	15.8 (model closer than the closing line)
2026	5	Mercyhurst @ Long Island University	24–27	-9.6	-8.5	-3.0	6.6
2026	5	Fordham @ Lehigh	0–34	-24.9	-22.5	-34.0	9.1 (model closer than the closing line)
2026	5	St. Thomas (MN) @ Presbyterian	21–55	+17.3	+28.5	-34.0	51.3 (model closer than the closing line)
2026	5	Merrimack @ Yale	24–41	-19.2	-14.0	-17.0	2.2 (model closer than the closing line)
2026	5	Memphis @ Charlotte	59–8	+19.4	+19.5	+51.0	31.6
2026	5	Montana State @ Idaho	34–35	+15.4	+14.5	-1.0	16.4
2026	5	Penn State @ Northwestern	13–34	+2.4	+2.8	-21.0	23.4 (model closer than the closing line)
2026	5	Pittsburgh @ Virginia Tech	35–33	-0.6	-1.5	+2.0	2.6 (model closer than the closing line)
2026	5	Liberty @ Delaware	30–14	+5.3	+7.0	+16.0	10.7
2026	5	North Texas @ Tulsa	45–44	+1.3	+2.0	+1.0	0.3 (model closer than the closing line)
2026	5	Western Kentucky @ New Mexico State	13–34	+0.8	-1.5	-21.0	21.8
2026	4	Minnesota @ Washington	27–24	-11.2	-12.3	+3.0	14.2 (model closer than the closing line)
2026	4	Georgia Tech @ Stanford	27–34	+5.7	+3.0	-7.0	12.7
2026	4	Air Force @ Nevada	36–33	+4.7	+5.3	+3.0	1.7 (model closer than the closing line)
2026	4	Northern Arizona @ Montana State	14–28	-21.4	-20.5	-14.0	7.4
2026	4	Rice @ Fresno State	24–38	-13.7	-12.3	-14.0	0.3 (model closer than the closing line)
2026	4	Montana @ UC Davis	62–22	-2.2	-3.0	+40.0	42.2 (model closer than the closing line)
2026	4	Missouri State @ SMU	24–34	-33.6	-30.5	-10.0	23.6
2026	4	Oregon State @ UTEP	33–7	+12.0	+11.5	+26.0	14.0 (model closer than the closing line)
2026	4	Massachusetts @ Sacramento State	35–6	+2.8	+6.0	+29.0	26.2
2026	4	Tulsa @ Arkansas	6–34	-7.7	-7.0	-28.0	20.3 (model closer than the closing line)
2026	4	Florida Atlantic @ UL Monroe	45–17	+11.4	+11.5	+28.0	16.6
2026	4	Mercer @ Abilene Christian	34–17	-6.2	-3.5	+17.0	23.2
2026	4	Idaho State @ Southern Utah	28–24	+5.5	+9.5	+4.0	1.5 (model closer than the closing line)
2026	4	Utah Tech @ Northern Colorado	13–37	-11.2	-7.5	-24.0	12.8 (model closer than the closing line)
2026	4	Portland State @ Weber State	44–41	-10.3	-7.0	+3.0	13.3
2026	4	Missouri @ Mississippi State	24–31	-5.8	-3.5	-7.0	1.2 (model closer than the closing line)
2026	4	Texas A&M @ LSU	6–35	-6.7	-8.5	-29.0	22.3
2026	4	Arizona @ Washington State	34–24	+8.6	+11.8	+10.0	1.4 (model closer than the closing line)
2026	4	Oregon @ USC	41–27	+1.8	+3.5	+14.0	12.2
2026	4	Troy @ Utah State	10–21	-3.5	-3.0	-11.0	7.5 (model closer than the closing line)
2026	4	Houston Christian @ North Texas	14–63	-40.1	-38.3	-49.0	8.9 (model closer than the closing line)
2026	4	App State @ NC State	31–41	-16.1	-12.8	-10.0	6.1
2026	4	South Carolina @ Alabama	18–49	-15.8	-12.5	-31.0	15.2 (model closer than the closing line)
2026	4	Kansas State @ Cincinnati	26–31	+4.7	+6.0	-5.0	9.7 (model closer than the closing line)
2026	4	Oklahoma State @ West Virginia	41–24	-3.8	-1.5	+17.0	20.8
2026	4	Southern Miss @ Tulane	21–24	-17.8	-17.8	-3.0	14.8
2026	4	Norfolk State @ Chicago State	43–20	+7.9	+17.5	+23.0	15.1
2026	4	Southern Illinois @ Murray State	46–6	+19.5	+17.5	+40.0	20.5 (model closer than the closing line)
2026	4	South Carolina State @ Bethune-Cookman	31–21	+14.8	+17.5	+10.0	4.8 (model closer than the closing line)
2026	4	Cal Poly @ Eastern Washington	31–27	-7.6	-3.5	+4.0	11.6
2026	4	Eastern Illinois @ South Dakota State	7–42	-33.8	-34.5	-35.0	1.2
2026	4	Alabama A&M @ Florida A&M	40–21	-0.6	+3.0	+19.0	19.6

Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line. Model is the published market-informed line, not the pure projection.