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Every completed game graded live this season: the projection published before kickoff, the CFBD closing spread, and the final margin. Nothing is re-fit after a result is known. Lines are quoted for the home team.
Pick history| Season | Wk | Matchup | Score | Model | Close | Result | Model err |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4 | SE Louisiana @ Northwestern State | 52–21 | +27.4 | +37.5 | +31.0 | 3.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 4 | Prairie View A&M vs Grambling | 21–14 | +7.8 | +11.5 | +7.0 | 0.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 4 | Southern @ Jackson State | 17–35 | -19.1 | -20.5 | -18.0 | 1.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 4 | East Texas A&M @ McNeese | 24–27 | -10.1 | -6.5 | -3.0 | 7.1 |
| 2026 | 4 | Kennesaw State @ Arkansas State | 14–17 | -6.9 | -6.5 | -3.0 | 3.9 |
| 2026 | 4 | Mercyhurst @ Western Kentucky | 7–52 | -31.9 | -40.0 | -45.0 | 13.1 |
| 2026 | 4 | Middle Tennessee @ Jacksonville State | 13–23 | -9.7 | -7.0 | -10.0 | 0.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 4 | West Florida @ Southeast Missouri State | 20–17 | -5.4 | -6.0 | +3.0 | 8.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 4 | Central Michigan @ Miami | 3–52 | -41.8 | -41.3 | -49.0 | 7.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 4 | Louisiana @ Charlotte | 34–7 | +9.9 | +9.3 | +27.0 | 17.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 4 | Delaware @ Virginia | 3–42 | -21.6 | -19.8 | -39.0 | 17.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 4 | Incarnate Word @ Texas State | 10–63 | -28.2 | -30.5 | -53.0 | 24.8 |
| 2026 | 4 | Campbell @ Hampton | 44–20 | +16.1 | +20.5 | +24.0 | 7.9 |
| 2026 | 4 | Towson @ Delaware State | 28–33 | -2.3 | -3.0 | -5.0 | 2.7 |
| 2026 | 4 | Long Island University @ Florida International | 3–20 | -30.2 | -37.5 | -17.0 | 13.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 4 | Mississippi Valley State @ Alabama State | 15–41 | -33.4 | -34.5 | -26.0 | 7.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 4 | James Madison @ Old Dominion | 46–20 | +6.4 | +7.0 | +26.0 | 19.6 |
| 2026 | 4 | Nebraska @ Michigan State | 31–13 | +5.5 | +6.0 | +18.0 | 12.5 |
| 2026 | 4 | Wisconsin @ Penn State | 24–20 | -13.1 | -9.8 | +4.0 | 17.1 |
| 2026 | 4 | South Florida @ Bowling Green | 14–6 | +19.4 | +17.8 | +8.0 | 11.4 |
| 2026 | 4 | Illinois State @ Northern Iowa | 21–28 | +12.0 | +19.5 | -7.0 | 19.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 4 | Vanderbilt @ Auburn | 15–21 | -7.8 | -10.0 | -6.0 | 1.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 4 | Houston @ Georgia Southern | 42–28 | +18.7 | +17.3 | +14.0 | 4.7 |
| 2026 | 4 | North Carolina Central @ East Carolina | 9–42 | -36.1 | -37.5 | -33.0 | 3.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 4 | Rhode Island @ North Carolina A&T | 18–22 | +20.7 | +24.5 | -4.0 | 24.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 4 | Western Illinois @ North Alabama | 20–23 | -7.2 | -7.0 | -3.0 | 4.2 |
| 2026 | 4 | Texas Southern @ Alcorn State | 40–43 | -4.5 | -3.5 | -3.0 | 1.5 |
| 2026 | 4 | Lamar @ Nicholls | 49–18 | +7.2 | +8.5 | +31.0 | 23.8 |
| 2026 | 4 | Ole Miss @ Florida | 28–52 | -2.7 | -4.0 | -24.0 | 21.3 |
| 2026 | 4 | Oklahoma @ Georgia | 13–41 | -12.3 | -11.3 | -28.0 | 15.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 4 | TCU @ UCF | 13–21 | +2.3 | +3.5 | -8.0 | 10.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 4 | Utah @ Iowa State | 31–17 | +9.1 | +7.5 | +14.0 | 4.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 4 | William & Mary @ Duke | 7–62 | -42.1 | -43.0 | -55.0 | 12.9 |
| 2026 | 4 | Iowa @ Michigan | 20–19 | -5.0 | -4.8 | +1.0 | 6.0 |
| 2026 | 4 | Boise State @ Western Michigan | 32–7 | +5.8 | +8.5 | +25.0 | 19.2 |
| 2026 | 4 | UConn @ Miami (OH) | 21–24 | -2.7 | -2.5 | -3.0 | 0.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 4 | New Mexico @ New Mexico State | 42–18 | +12.8 | +11.5 | +24.0 | 11.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 4 | Robert Morris @ Buffalo | 28–31 | -26.6 | -27.8 | -3.0 | 23.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 4 | Stonehill @ Ohio | 7–35 | -34.6 | -32.5 | -28.0 | 6.6 |
| 2026 | 4 | Gardner-Webb @ Marshall | 35–36 | -20.2 | -25.0 | -1.0 | 19.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 4 | Western Carolina @ East Tennessee State | 31–58 | +1.8 | -1.5 | -27.0 | 28.8 |
| 2026 | 4 | VMI @ Samford | 7–45 | -14.3 | -15.5 | -38.0 | 23.7 |
| 2026 | 4 | Central Arkansas @ Florida State | 7–34 | -44.2 | -46.0 | -27.0 | 17.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 4 | Hawai'i @ Wyoming | 10–27 | +3.0 | +2.3 | -17.0 | 20.0 |
| 2026 | 4 | UAlbany @ Princeton | 0–22 | -2.7 | +1.5 | -22.0 | 19.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 4 | Colgate @ Villanova | 28–21 | -5.3 | -3.0 | +7.0 | 12.3 |
| 2026 | 4 | Notre Dame @ Purdue | 49–10 | +26.9 | +27.5 | +39.0 | 12.1 |
| 2026 | 4 | Northern Illinois @ Georgia State | 14–35 | -10.5 | -8.8 | -21.0 | 10.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 4 | Maine @ Elon | 17–43 | -8.3 | -5.5 | -26.0 | 17.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 4 | South Dakota @ Youngstown State | 28–47 | -3.6 | -1.5 | -19.0 | 15.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line. Model is the published market-informed line, not the pure projection.