2026 Graded Games

748 graded games

Every completed game graded live this season: the projection published before kickoff, the CFBD closing spread, and the final margin. Nothing is re-fit after a result is known. Lines are quoted for the home team.

Pick history

2026 graded games
Season	Wk	Matchup	Score	Model	Close	Result	Model err
2026	4	Furman @ Richmond	9–13	-0.2	-3.5	-4.0	3.8
2026	4	UT Martin @ Austin Peay	12–35	-17.9	-15.5	-23.0	5.1 (model closer than the closing line)
2026	4	Butler @ Valparaiso	33–28	+13.0	+6.5	+5.0	8.0
2026	4	San Diego @ St. Thomas (MN)	17–50	-6.5	-5.5	-33.0	26.5 (model closer than the closing line)
2026	4	Chattanooga @ The Citadel	27–8	+4.7	+10.5	+19.0	14.3
2026	4	UCLA @ Maryland	54–3	+1.5	+2.5	+51.0	49.5
2026	4	Tennessee Tech @ Wofford	42–38	+11.1	+14.5	+4.0	7.1 (model closer than the closing line)
2026	4	Lindenwood @ Eastern Michigan	3–29	-15.9	-24.3	-26.0	10.1
2026	4	Monmouth @ Dartmouth	31–28	-4.5	-3.0	+3.0	7.5
2026	4	Stony Brook @ Fordham	31–16	+5.5	+9.5	+15.0	9.5
2026	4	Yale @ Cornell	25–38	+14.0	+14.0	-13.0	27.0
2026	4	North Dakota @ Indiana State	42–35	+17.2	+17.5	+7.0	10.2 (model closer than the closing line)
2026	4	Lehigh @ Pennsylvania	20–7	+9.9	+12.5	+13.0	3.1
2026	4	Drake @ Davidson	51–32	+10.4	+11.5	+19.0	8.6
2026	4	New Haven @ Merrimack	10–17	-11.7	-10.0	-7.0	4.7
2026	4	South Alabama @ Kentucky	21–45	-20.9	-20.5	-24.0	3.1 (model closer than the closing line)
2026	4	Columbia @ Georgetown	20–17	+1.9	+7.0	+3.0	1.1 (model closer than the closing line)
2026	4	Holy Cross @ Lafayette	38–30	-5.7	-4.0	+8.0	13.7
2026	4	Texas @ Tennessee	20–17	+4.4	+5.5	+3.0	1.4 (model closer than the closing line)
2026	4	Sam Houston @ Texas Tech	14–49	-35.7	-34.5	-35.0	0.7
2026	4	Colorado @ Baylor	13–23	-10.0	-8.5	-10.0	0.0 (model closer than the closing line)
2026	4	Bucknell @ Pittsburgh	0–59	-49.8	-54.5	-59.0	9.2
2026	4	Virginia Tech @ Boston College	21–14	+12.5	+14.5	+7.0	5.5 (model closer than the closing line)
2026	4	Wake Forest @ Louisville	30–27	-13.6	-11.3	+3.0	16.6
2026	4	Illinois @ Ohio State	19–42	-25.2	-25.5	-23.0	2.2 (model closer than the closing line)
2026	4	San Diego State @ Toledo	16–41	-4.4	-2.8	-25.0	20.6 (model closer than the closing line)
2026	4	Colorado State @ UTSA	45–59	-13.2	-14.3	-14.0	0.8
2026	4	UNLV @ Akron	38–10	+12.5	+13.5	+28.0	15.5
2026	4	Ball State @ Kent State	13–26	-1.8	-2.5	-13.0	11.2
2026	4	New Hampshire @ Sacred Heart	13–20	-2.5	-2.5	-7.0	4.5 (model closer than the closing line)
2026	4	Presbyterian @ Marist	7–42	-9.1	-8.5	-35.0	25.9 (model closer than the closing line)
2026	4	Clemson @ California	24–10	+1.4	+2.5	+14.0	12.6
2026	4	Northwestern @ Indiana	23–29	-21.2	-20.3	-6.0	15.2
2026	4	Howard @ Rutgers	7–58	-35.1	-42.3	-51.0	15.9
2026	4	Navy @ UAB	20–24	+6.0	+6.5	-4.0	10.0 (model closer than the closing line)
2026	4	Harvard @ Brown	14–10	+13.1	+13.5	+4.0	9.1 (model closer than the closing line)
2026	4	Army @ Temple	21–17	+3.8	+4.0	+4.0	0.2
2026	4	Liberty @ Coastal Carolina	34–17	+1.5	+2.5	+17.0	15.5
2026	3	Purdue @ UCLA	38–52	-12.2	-13.5	-14.0	1.8
2026	3	Montana @ Oregon State	17–52	-13.2	-17.5	-35.0	21.8
2026	3	Fresno State @ San José State	26–10	+6.0	+4.0	+16.0	10.0 (model closer than the closing line)
2026	3	Northern Illinois @ Arizona	17–42	-31.6	-34.5	-25.0	6.6 (model closer than the closing line)
2026	3	North Dakota State @ Sacramento State	31–10	+22.5	+26.5	+21.0	1.5 (model closer than the closing line)
2026	3	South Dakota @ Boise State	24–38	-23.2	-28.5	-14.0	9.2 (model closer than the closing line)
2026	3	James Madison @ San Diego State	26–13	+1.0	-3.0	+13.0	12.0 (model closer than the closing line)
2026	3	Stetson @ UC Davis	7–45	-42.1	-47.5	-38.0	4.1 (model closer than the closing line)
2026	3	UTSA @ Texas	6–30	-29.7	-29.5	-24.0	5.7
2026	3	Arkansas State @ TCU	7–31	-19.0	-18.5	-24.0	5.0 (model closer than the closing line)
2026	3	East Texas A&M @ Tulsa	0–42	-34.8	-41.5	-42.0	7.2
2026	3	UAB @ Louisiana	14–21	-8.1	-7.0	-7.0	1.1

Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line. Model is the published market-informed line, not the pure projection.