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Every completed game graded live this season: the projection published before kickoff, the CFBD closing spread, and the final margin. Nothing is re-fit after a result is known. Lines are quoted for the home team.
Pick history| Season | Wk | Matchup | Score | Model | Close | Result | Model err |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3 | San Diego @ Cal Poly | 38–35 | -12.6 | -17.5 | +3.0 | 15.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 3 | Northern Arizona @ Utah Tech | 35–23 | +13.0 | +16.5 | +12.0 | 1.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 3 | Northwestern State @ Weber State | 20–49 | -25.5 | -35.5 | -29.0 | 3.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 3 | McNeese @ UT Rio Grande Valley | 10–27 | -8.2 | -5.5 | -17.0 | 8.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 3 | Stephen F. Austin @ Prairie View A&M | 31–10 | +10.3 | +16.5 | +21.0 | 10.7 |
| 2026 | 3 | Kennesaw State @ Tennessee | 9–42 | -36.3 | -35.5 | -33.0 | 3.3 |
| 2026 | 3 | LSU @ Ole Miss | 24–32 | -0.2 | +3.0 | -8.0 | 7.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 3 | New Mexico @ Oklahoma | 6–14 | -24.8 | -21.5 | -8.0 | 16.8 |
| 2026 | 3 | BYU @ Colorado State | 41–23 | +17.3 | +17.5 | +18.0 | 0.7 |
| 2026 | 3 | Colorado @ Northwestern | 7–41 | -4.6 | -3.5 | -34.0 | 29.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 3 | West Virginia vs Virginia | 38–27 | -4.8 | -10.5 | +11.0 | 15.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 3 | Virginia Tech @ Maryland | 35–26 | +1.9 | +2.5 | +9.0 | 7.1 |
| 2026 | 3 | Michigan State @ Notre Dame | 10–27 | -27.9 | -28.5 | -17.0 | 10.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 3 | North Dakota @ Nebraska | 7–34 | -26.4 | -27.5 | -27.0 | 0.6 |
| 2026 | 3 | Eastern Washington @ Washington | 16–48 | -42.0 | -42.5 | -32.0 | 10.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 3 | Florida @ Auburn | 44–39 | -0.4 | +2.5 | +5.0 | 5.4 |
| 2026 | 3 | Troy @ Missouri | 17–27 | -27.8 | -27.0 | -10.0 | 17.8 |
| 2026 | 3 | Georgia State @ UCF | 30–44 | -18.8 | -17.5 | -14.0 | 4.8 |
| 2026 | 3 | Murray State @ Oklahoma State | 0–59 | -48.6 | -56.5 | -59.0 | 10.4 |
| 2026 | 3 | UConn @ Southern Miss | 48–20 | +1.6 | +3.5 | +28.0 | 26.4 |
| 2026 | 3 | UT Martin @ Memphis | 21–45 | -32.0 | -33.5 | -24.0 | 8.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 3 | Western Michigan @ Rice | 28–21 | +10.8 | +8.5 | +7.0 | 3.8 |
| 2026 | 3 | Delaware State @ South Florida | 17–59 | -38.6 | -37.5 | -42.0 | 3.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 3 | Nevada @ Middle Tennessee | 20–27 | +2.2 | +3.5 | -7.0 | 9.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 3 | Ohio @ South Alabama | 36–41 | -5.5 | -7.0 | -5.0 | 0.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 3 | Youngstown State @ South Dakota State | 20–27 | -9.1 | -9.5 | -7.0 | 2.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 3 | South Carolina State @ Furman | 20–17 | -0.9 | +4.5 | +3.0 | 3.9 |
| 2026 | 3 | Austin Peay @ West Florida | 38–16 | +9.7 | +10.5 | +22.0 | 12.3 |
| 2026 | 3 | Central Arkansas @ Southeast Missouri State | 9–27 | -7.1 | -4.0 | -18.0 | 10.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 3 | Alcorn State @ North Alabama | 20–38 | -12.0 | -13.5 | -18.0 | 6.0 |
| 2026 | 3 | Tennessee State @ Florida A&M | 29–26 | +1.4 | -3.0 | +3.0 | 1.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 3 | Morehead State @ Western Illinois | 2–59 | -18.0 | -20.5 | -57.0 | 39.0 |
| 2026 | 3 | Merrimack @ Tarleton State | 20–45 | -28.0 | -32.5 | -25.0 | 3.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 3 | Houston Christian @ Incarnate Word | 23–30 | -18.6 | -14.0 | -7.0 | 11.6 |
| 2026 | 3 | Georgia Southern @ Jacksonville State | 27–31 | -3.3 | -3.5 | -4.0 | 0.7 |
| 2026 | 3 | Nicholls @ Sam Houston | 0–59 | -14.2 | -21.0 | -59.0 | 44.8 |
| 2026 | 3 | Marshall @ Missouri State | 30–24 | +3.3 | +4.0 | +6.0 | 2.7 |
| 2026 | 3 | East Carolina @ Old Dominion | 20–17 | -2.2 | -2.5 | +3.0 | 5.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 3 | Florida International @ Florida Atlantic | 10–16 | -5.9 | -5.0 | -6.0 | 0.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 3 | Charlotte @ App State | 21–26 | -16.5 | -16.0 | -5.0 | 11.5 |
| 2026 | 3 | North Carolina A&T @ Campbell | 14–42 | -17.0 | -20.5 | -28.0 | 11.0 |
| 2026 | 3 | Sacred Heart @ Elon | 21–24 | -15.8 | -12.0 | -3.0 | 12.8 |
| 2026 | 3 | Morgan State @ Towson | 41–26 | -9.6 | -8.5 | +15.0 | 24.6 |
| 2026 | 3 | North Carolina Central @ Gardner-Webb | 20–44 | -4.2 | -7.0 | -24.0 | 19.8 |
| 2026 | 3 | Fordham @ William & Mary | 52–27 | -17.3 | -16.0 | +25.0 | 42.3 |
| 2026 | 3 | Dayton @ Eastern Kentucky | 17–14 | -8.3 | -11.5 | +3.0 | 11.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 3 | Wofford @ Chattanooga | 7–41 | -2.5 | -1.5 | -34.0 | 31.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 3 | SE Louisiana @ UL Monroe | 38–35 | -9.0 | -9.5 | +3.0 | 12.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 3 | Mississippi State @ South Carolina | 41–34 | -4.6 | -3.0 | +7.0 | 11.6 |
| 2026 | 3 | Stanford @ Duke | 7–35 | -13.6 | -9.5 | -28.0 | 14.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line. Model is the published market-informed line, not the pure projection.