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Every completed game graded live this season: the projection published before kickoff, the CFBD closing spread, and the final margin. Nothing is re-fit after a result is known. Lines are quoted for the home team.
Pick history| Season | Wk | Matchup | Score | Model | Close | Result | Model err |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3 | Western Kentucky @ Indiana | 0–38 | -43.7 | -44.5 | -38.0 | 5.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 3 | Northern Iowa @ Iowa | 0–55 | -41.2 | -37.5 | -55.0 | 13.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 3 | Ball State @ Liberty | 15–51 | -14.7 | -14.5 | -36.0 | 21.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 3 | Hampton @ Norfolk State | 21–42 | -9.0 | -5.5 | -21.0 | 12.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 3 | Louisiana Tech @ Baylor | 19–36 | -19.6 | -20.0 | -17.0 | 2.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 3 | Abilene Christian @ Idaho | 41–39 | +0.6 | +1.5 | +2.0 | 1.4 |
| 2026 | 3 | Florida State @ Alabama | 36–50 | -18.1 | -18.5 | -14.0 | 4.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 3 | Kentucky @ Texas A&M | 31–21 | -18.3 | -16.5 | +10.0 | 28.3 |
| 2026 | 3 | Miami (OH) @ Cincinnati | 31–35 | -16.9 | -14.5 | -4.0 | 12.9 |
| 2026 | 3 | Utah State @ Utah | 0–33 | -28.9 | -26.5 | -33.0 | 4.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 3 | SMU @ Louisville | 31–41 | -2.2 | -3.0 | -10.0 | 7.8 |
| 2026 | 3 | Wagner @ California | 7–49 | -48.7 | -58.5 | -42.0 | 6.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 3 | UTEP @ Michigan | 17–52 | -34.9 | -34.5 | -35.0 | 0.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 3 | USC @ Rutgers | 42–35 | +19.4 | +21.0 | +7.0 | 12.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 3 | Duquesne @ Washington State | 7–48 | -36.9 | -38.5 | -41.0 | 4.1 |
| 2026 | 3 | Stonehill @ Massachusetts | 14–36 | -28.1 | -30.5 | -22.0 | 6.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 3 | Monmouth @ UAlbany | 28–20 | +1.2 | +2.5 | +8.0 | 6.8 |
| 2026 | 3 | Georgetown @ Richmond | 21–24 | -15.6 | -15.5 | -3.0 | 12.6 |
| 2026 | 3 | Temple @ Toledo | 48–49 | -7.5 | -4.5 | -1.0 | 6.5 |
| 2026 | 3 | Eastern Illinois @ Illinois State | 13–49 | -27.3 | -29.5 | -36.0 | 8.7 |
| 2026 | 3 | Central Connecticut @ Montana State | 30–35 | -34.6 | -41.5 | -5.0 | 29.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 3 | Pennsylvania @ Bucknell | 20–7 | +5.6 | +3.5 | +13.0 | 7.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 3 | Rhode Island @ Stony Brook | 24–56 | +9.1 | +9.5 | -32.0 | 41.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 3 | Presbyterian @ Western Carolina | 14–58 | -14.9 | -33.5 | -44.0 | 29.1 |
| 2026 | 3 | Maine @ Boston College | 16–22 | -36.5 | -37.5 | -6.0 | 30.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 3 | Southern Illinois @ Illinois | 10–48 | -33.6 | -34.5 | -38.0 | 4.4 |
| 2026 | 3 | Yale @ Holy Cross | 38–28 | +12.1 | +21.0 | +10.0 | 2.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 3 | Southern Utah @ St. Thomas (MN) | 26–28 | +8.2 | +12.5 | -2.0 | 10.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 3 | Wyoming @ Central Michigan | 10–24 | -0.1 | +1.5 | -14.0 | 13.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 3 | Princeton @ Bryant | 14–21 | -0.2 | +2.5 | -7.0 | 6.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 3 | Harvard @ New Hampshire | 31–7 | +13.3 | +14.5 | +24.0 | 10.7 |
| 2026 | 3 | Chicago State @ Butler | 20–47 | -13.7 | -20.5 | -27.0 | 13.3 |
| 2026 | 3 | Cornell @ Colgate | 7–20 | -9.3 | -12.5 | -13.0 | 3.7 |
| 2026 | 3 | Valparaiso @ Indiana State | 16–39 | -23.5 | -22.5 | -23.0 | 0.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 3 | VMI @ Davidson | 24–27 | +7.8 | +4.0 | -3.0 | 10.8 |
| 2026 | 3 | NC State @ Vanderbilt | 31–35 | -3.9 | -3.0 | -4.0 | 0.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 3 | Eastern Michigan @ Wisconsin | 10–54 | -21.9 | -23.5 | -44.0 | 22.1 |
| 2026 | 3 | Georgia @ Arkansas | 45–17 | +19.3 | +24.5 | +28.0 | 8.7 |
| 2026 | 3 | Tulane @ Kansas State | 20–31 | -18.3 | -20.5 | -11.0 | 7.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 3 | Bowling Green @ Iowa State | 7–55 | -23.7 | -23.0 | -48.0 | 24.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 3 | Arizona State vs Kansas | 24–17 | +4.9 | +5.5 | +7.0 | 2.1 |
| 2026 | 3 | Mercer @ Georgia Tech | 11–44 | -32.1 | -38.5 | -33.0 | 0.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 3 | North Carolina @ Clemson | 20–28 | -6.4 | -3.0 | -8.0 | 1.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 3 | Akron @ Minnesota | 7–41 | -23.8 | -22.5 | -34.0 | 10.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 3 | Kent State @ Ohio State | 3–59 | -52.9 | -52.5 | -56.0 | 3.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 3 | Buffalo @ Penn State | 13–55 | -40.1 | -39.5 | -42.0 | 1.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 3 | North Texas @ Texas State | 35–49 | -2.4 | -3.0 | -14.0 | 11.6 |
| 2026 | 3 | Brown @ New Haven | 17–10 | +9.4 | +10.0 | +7.0 | 2.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 3 | Lafayette @ Columbia | 34–40 | -0.3 | -3.0 | -6.0 | 5.7 |
| 2026 | 3 | Dartmouth @ Lehigh | 20–24 | -13.4 | -17.5 | -4.0 | 9.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line. Model is the published market-informed line, not the pure projection.