The race, week by week

NFL MVP and Awards Tracker

Award forecasts alongside on-field performance. Follow the leaders, see what drives their rankings, and revisit each weekly snapshot.

Updates after completed weekly games

Last updated:

Coach of the Year

2026 season · Through week 1

Choose a historical snapshot

2026 · W5 2026 · W4 2026 · W3 2026 · W2 2026 · W1 2026 · W0

Forecast leader

Klint Kubliak

LV · HC

Historical top-three hit rate

33%

6 retrospective validation seasons at this horizon

Forecast status

Experimental

Win percentages withheld pending validation

Race trajectory

The race chart needs at least two weekly snapshots.

Weekly leaders

Week 1

Klint Kubliak

Methodology and validation

Each award has a separate regularized model trained on earlier seasons only. Candidates come from statistics available at the selected cutoff. Missing winners count as misses. The model predicts award winners; it does not estimate ballot share.

Remaining-season player totals shrink toward prior-season rates with a four-game prior. Team records use a beta prior. Coach forecasts compare projected wins with a preseason baseline formed from the prior season record. These projections assume continued availability and do not yet model future injury risk. Full-game production informs the award forecast; competitive-drive EPA is a separate performance measure. Awards do not change team ratings.

Historical results use reconstructed source files and a 24-hour result-availability assumption. Previously inspected years are retrospective validation, not a fresh holdout. CPOY training excludes seasons before the 2024 criteria change.

Winner hit rate: 0%. Winner coverage: 100%. Log loss: 3.80. Brier score: 0.97.

Precise probabilities require at least eight validation seasons, complete winner coverage, better log loss than a uniform baseline, and a leader-confidence gap of at most ten percentage points. Until then, rankings remain experimental.

Sources: nflverse player and schedule data, NFL Record and Fact Book, and NFL Honors results.

Rank	Candidate	Season line	Weekly move	Performance rank	Win probability
1	Klint KubliakLV · HC 1 games played. Projected finish: 9.9 projected team wins. Team record improvement: 82.35. Main forecast factors wins above preseason baseline: raises the model score scoring margin: raises the model score games remaining: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	1-0, +14.0 margin	Unavailable	#1	Experimental
2	Aaron GlennNYJ · HC 1 games played. Projected finish: 9.9 projected team wins. Team record improvement: 82.35. Main forecast factors wins above preseason baseline: raises the model score scoring margin: raises the model score games remaining: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	1-0, +13.0 margin	Unavailable	#1	Experimental
3	Jonathan GannonARI · HC 1 games played. Projected finish: 9.9 projected team wins. Team record improvement: 82.35. Main forecast factors wins above preseason baseline: raises the model score scoring margin: raises the model score games remaining: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	1-0, +12.0 margin	Unavailable	#1	Experimental
4	Andy ReidKC · HC 1 games played. Projected finish: 9.9 projected team wins. Team record improvement: 64.71. Main forecast factors scoring margin: raises the model score wins above preseason baseline: raises the model score games remaining: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	1-0, +21.0 margin	Unavailable	#5	Experimental
5	John HarbaughNYG · HC 1 games played. Projected finish: 9.9 projected team wins. Team record improvement: 76.47. Main forecast factors wins above preseason baseline: raises the model score scoring margin: raises the model score games remaining: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	1-0, +8.0 margin	Unavailable	#4	Experimental
6	Jesse MinterBAL · HC 1 games played. Projected finish: 9.9 projected team wins. Team record improvement: 52.94. Main forecast factors scoring margin: raises the model score wins above preseason baseline: raises the model score games remaining: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	1-0, +18.0 margin	Unavailable	#7	Experimental
7	Zac TaylorCIN · HC 1 games played. Projected finish: 9.9 projected team wins. Team record improvement: 64.71. Main forecast factors wins above preseason baseline: raises the model score scoring margin: raises the model score games remaining: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	1-0, +6.0 margin	Unavailable	#5	Experimental
8	Kevin O'ConnellMIN · HC 1 games played. Projected finish: 9.9 projected team wins. Team record improvement: 47.06. Main forecast factors scoring margin: raises the model score wins above preseason baseline: raises the model score games remaining: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	1-0, +17.0 margin	Unavailable	#8	Experimental
9	Ben JohnsonCHI · HC 1 games played. Projected finish: 9.9 projected team wins. Team record improvement: 35.29. Main forecast factors scoring margin: raises the model score wins above preseason baseline: lowers the model score games remaining: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	1-0, +22.0 margin	Unavailable	#11	Experimental
10	Kyle ShanahanSF · HC 1 games played. Projected finish: 9.9 projected team wins. Team record improvement: 29.41. Main forecast factors scoring margin: raises the model score wins above preseason baseline: lowers the model score games remaining: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	1-0, +20.0 margin	Unavailable	#13	Experimental
11	Liam CoenJAX · HC 1 games played. Projected finish: 9.9 projected team wins. Team record improvement: 23.53. Main forecast factors scoring margin: raises the model score wins above preseason baseline: lowers the model score games remaining: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	1-0, +24.0 margin	Unavailable	#15	Experimental
12	Mike McCarthyPIT · HC 1 games played. Projected finish: 9.9 projected team wins. Team record improvement: 41.18. Main forecast factors scoring margin: raises the model score wins above preseason baseline: raises the model score games remaining: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	1-0, +7.0 margin	Unavailable	#10	Experimental
13	Dan CampbellDET · HC 1 games played. Projected finish: 9.9 projected team wins. Team record improvement: 47.06. Main forecast factors wins above preseason baseline: raises the model score scoring margin: raises the model score games remaining: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	1-0, +1.0 margin	Unavailable	#8	Experimental
14	Dan QuinnWAS · HC 1 games played. Projected finish: 7.1 projected team wins. Team record improvement: -29.41. Main forecast factors wins above preseason baseline: raises the model score scoring margin: lowers the model score games remaining: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	0-1, -2.0 margin	Unavailable	#18	Experimental
15	Robert SalehTEN · HC 1 games played. Projected finish: 7.1 projected team wins. Team record improvement: -17.65. Main forecast factors wins above preseason baseline: raises the model score scoring margin: lowers the model score games remaining: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	0-1, -13.0 margin	Unavailable	#17	Experimental
16	Kellen MooreNO · HC 1 games played. Projected finish: 7.1 projected team wins. Team record improvement: -35.29. Main forecast factors wins above preseason baseline: raises the model score scoring margin: lowers the model score games remaining: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	0-1, -1.0 margin	Unavailable	#20	Experimental
17	Nick SirianniPHI · HC 1 games played. Projected finish: 9.9 projected team wins. Team record improvement: 35.29. Main forecast factors wins above preseason baseline: lowers the model score scoring margin: raises the model score games remaining: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	1-0, +2.0 margin	Unavailable	#11	Experimental
18	Sean McDermottBUF · HC 1 games played. Projected finish: 9.9 projected team wins. Team record improvement: 29.41. Main forecast factors wins above preseason baseline: lowers the model score scoring margin: raises the model score games remaining: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	1-0, +5.0 margin	Unavailable	#13	Experimental
19	Brian SchottenheimerDAL · HC 1 games played. Projected finish: 7.1 projected team wins. Team record improvement: -41.18. Main forecast factors scoring margin: lowers the model score wins above preseason baseline: lowers the model score games remaining: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	0-1, -8.0 margin	Unavailable	#21	Experimental
20	Mike MacdonaldSEA · HC 1 games played. Projected finish: 9.9 projected team wins. Team record improvement: 17.65. Main forecast factors wins above preseason baseline: lowers the model score scoring margin: raises the model score games remaining: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	1-0, +3.0 margin	Unavailable	#16	Experimental
21	Todd BowlesTB · HC 1 games played. Projected finish: 7.1 projected team wins. Team record improvement: -47.06. Main forecast factors wins above preseason baseline: lowers the model score scoring margin: lowers the model score games remaining: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	0-1, -6.0 margin	Unavailable	#23	Experimental
22	Raheem MorrisATL · HC 1 games played. Projected finish: 7.1 projected team wins. Team record improvement: -47.06. Main forecast factors wins above preseason baseline: lowers the model score scoring margin: lowers the model score games remaining: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	0-1, -7.0 margin	Unavailable	#23	Experimental
23	Jeff HafleyMIA · HC 1 games played. Projected finish: 7.1 projected team wins. Team record improvement: -41.18. Main forecast factors scoring margin: lowers the model score wins above preseason baseline: lowers the model score games remaining: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	0-1, -14.0 margin	Unavailable	#21	Experimental
24	Todd MonkenCLE · HC 1 games played. Projected finish: 7.1 projected team wins. Team record improvement: -29.41. Main forecast factors scoring margin: lowers the model score wins above preseason baseline: raises the model score games remaining: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	0-1, -24.0 margin	Unavailable	#18	Experimental
25	Shane SteichenIND · HC 1 games played. Projected finish: 7.1 projected team wins. Team record improvement: -47.06. Main forecast factors scoring margin: lowers the model score wins above preseason baseline: lowers the model score games remaining: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	0-1, -18.0 margin	Unavailable	#23	Experimental

Rank

Candidate

Season line

Weekly move

Performance rank

Win probability

Klint KubliakLV · HC

1 games played. Projected finish: 9.9 projected team wins.

Team record improvement: 82.35.

Main forecast factors

wins above preseason baseline: raises the model score
scoring margin: raises the model score
games remaining: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

1-0, +14.0 margin

Unavailable

Experimental

Aaron GlennNYJ · HC

1 games played. Projected finish: 9.9 projected team wins.

Team record improvement: 82.35.

Main forecast factors

wins above preseason baseline: raises the model score
scoring margin: raises the model score
games remaining: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

1-0, +13.0 margin

Unavailable

Experimental

Jonathan GannonARI · HC

1 games played. Projected finish: 9.9 projected team wins.

Team record improvement: 82.35.

Main forecast factors

wins above preseason baseline: raises the model score
scoring margin: raises the model score
games remaining: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

1-0, +12.0 margin

Unavailable

Experimental

Andy ReidKC · HC

1 games played. Projected finish: 9.9 projected team wins.

Team record improvement: 64.71.

Main forecast factors

scoring margin: raises the model score
wins above preseason baseline: raises the model score
games remaining: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

1-0, +21.0 margin

Unavailable

Experimental

John HarbaughNYG · HC

1 games played. Projected finish: 9.9 projected team wins.

Team record improvement: 76.47.

Main forecast factors

wins above preseason baseline: raises the model score
scoring margin: raises the model score
games remaining: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

1-0, +8.0 margin

Unavailable

Experimental

Jesse MinterBAL · HC

1 games played. Projected finish: 9.9 projected team wins.

Team record improvement: 52.94.

Main forecast factors

scoring margin: raises the model score
wins above preseason baseline: raises the model score
games remaining: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

1-0, +18.0 margin

Unavailable

Experimental

Zac TaylorCIN · HC

1 games played. Projected finish: 9.9 projected team wins.

Team record improvement: 64.71.

Main forecast factors

wins above preseason baseline: raises the model score
scoring margin: raises the model score
games remaining: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

1-0, +6.0 margin

Unavailable

Experimental

Kevin O'ConnellMIN · HC

1 games played. Projected finish: 9.9 projected team wins.

Team record improvement: 47.06.

Main forecast factors

scoring margin: raises the model score
wins above preseason baseline: raises the model score
games remaining: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

1-0, +17.0 margin

Unavailable

Experimental

Ben JohnsonCHI · HC

1 games played. Projected finish: 9.9 projected team wins.

Team record improvement: 35.29.

Main forecast factors

scoring margin: raises the model score
wins above preseason baseline: lowers the model score
games remaining: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

1-0, +22.0 margin

Unavailable

#11

Experimental

Kyle ShanahanSF · HC

1 games played. Projected finish: 9.9 projected team wins.

Team record improvement: 29.41.

Main forecast factors

scoring margin: raises the model score
wins above preseason baseline: lowers the model score
games remaining: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

1-0, +20.0 margin

Unavailable

#13

Experimental

Liam CoenJAX · HC

1 games played. Projected finish: 9.9 projected team wins.

Team record improvement: 23.53.

Main forecast factors

scoring margin: raises the model score
wins above preseason baseline: lowers the model score
games remaining: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

1-0, +24.0 margin

Unavailable

#15

Experimental

Mike McCarthyPIT · HC

1 games played. Projected finish: 9.9 projected team wins.

Team record improvement: 41.18.

Main forecast factors

scoring margin: raises the model score
wins above preseason baseline: raises the model score
games remaining: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

1-0, +7.0 margin

Unavailable

#10

Experimental

Dan CampbellDET · HC

1 games played. Projected finish: 9.9 projected team wins.

Team record improvement: 47.06.

Main forecast factors

wins above preseason baseline: raises the model score
scoring margin: raises the model score
games remaining: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

1-0, +1.0 margin

Unavailable

Experimental

Dan QuinnWAS · HC

1 games played. Projected finish: 7.1 projected team wins.

Team record improvement: -29.41.

Main forecast factors

wins above preseason baseline: raises the model score
scoring margin: lowers the model score
games remaining: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

0-1, -2.0 margin

Unavailable

#18

Experimental

Robert SalehTEN · HC

1 games played. Projected finish: 7.1 projected team wins.

Team record improvement: -17.65.

Main forecast factors

wins above preseason baseline: raises the model score
scoring margin: lowers the model score
games remaining: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

0-1, -13.0 margin

Unavailable

#17

Experimental

Kellen MooreNO · HC

1 games played. Projected finish: 7.1 projected team wins.

Team record improvement: -35.29.

Main forecast factors

wins above preseason baseline: raises the model score
scoring margin: lowers the model score
games remaining: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

0-1, -1.0 margin

Unavailable

#20

Experimental

Nick SirianniPHI · HC

1 games played. Projected finish: 9.9 projected team wins.

Team record improvement: 35.29.

Main forecast factors

wins above preseason baseline: lowers the model score
scoring margin: raises the model score
games remaining: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

1-0, +2.0 margin

Unavailable

#11

Experimental

Sean McDermottBUF · HC

1 games played. Projected finish: 9.9 projected team wins.

Team record improvement: 29.41.

Main forecast factors

wins above preseason baseline: lowers the model score
scoring margin: raises the model score
games remaining: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

1-0, +5.0 margin

Unavailable

#13

Experimental

Brian SchottenheimerDAL · HC

1 games played. Projected finish: 7.1 projected team wins.

Team record improvement: -41.18.

Main forecast factors

scoring margin: lowers the model score
wins above preseason baseline: lowers the model score
games remaining: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

0-1, -8.0 margin

Unavailable

#21

Experimental

Mike MacdonaldSEA · HC

1 games played. Projected finish: 9.9 projected team wins.

Team record improvement: 17.65.

Main forecast factors

wins above preseason baseline: lowers the model score
scoring margin: raises the model score
games remaining: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

1-0, +3.0 margin

Unavailable

#16

Experimental

Todd BowlesTB · HC

1 games played. Projected finish: 7.1 projected team wins.

Team record improvement: -47.06.

Main forecast factors

wins above preseason baseline: lowers the model score
scoring margin: lowers the model score
games remaining: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

0-1, -6.0 margin

Unavailable

#23

Experimental

Raheem MorrisATL · HC

1 games played. Projected finish: 7.1 projected team wins.

Team record improvement: -47.06.

Main forecast factors

wins above preseason baseline: lowers the model score
scoring margin: lowers the model score
games remaining: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

0-1, -7.0 margin

Unavailable

#23

Experimental

Jeff HafleyMIA · HC

1 games played. Projected finish: 7.1 projected team wins.

Team record improvement: -41.18.

Main forecast factors

scoring margin: lowers the model score
wins above preseason baseline: lowers the model score
games remaining: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

0-1, -14.0 margin

Unavailable

#21

Experimental

Todd MonkenCLE · HC

1 games played. Projected finish: 7.1 projected team wins.

Team record improvement: -29.41.

Main forecast factors

scoring margin: lowers the model score
wins above preseason baseline: raises the model score
games remaining: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

0-1, -24.0 margin

Unavailable

#18

Experimental

Shane SteichenIND · HC

1 games played. Projected finish: 7.1 projected team wins.

Team record improvement: -47.06.

Main forecast factors

scoring margin: lowers the model score
wins above preseason baseline: lowers the model score
games remaining: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

0-1, -18.0 margin

Unavailable

#23

Experimental