The race, week by week

NFL MVP and Awards Tracker

Award forecasts alongside on-field performance. Follow the leaders, see what drives their rankings, and revisit each weekly snapshot.

Updates after completed weekly games

Last updated:

Defensive Player of the Year

2026 season · Through week 1

Choose a historical snapshot

2026 · W5 2026 · W4 2026 · W3 2026 · W2 2026 · W1 2026 · W0

Forecast leader

Aidan Hutchinson

DET · DE

Historical top-three hit rate

33%

6 retrospective validation seasons at this horizon

Forecast status

Experimental

Win percentages withheld pending validation

Race trajectory

The race chart needs at least two weekly snapshots.

Weekly leaders

Week 1

Aidan Hutchinson

DET

Methodology and validation

Each award has a separate regularized model trained on earlier seasons only. Candidates come from statistics available at the selected cutoff. Missing winners count as misses. The model predicts award winners; it does not estimate ballot share.

Remaining-season player totals shrink toward prior-season rates with a four-game prior. Team records use a beta prior. Coach forecasts compare projected wins with a preseason baseline formed from the prior season record. These projections assume continued availability and do not yet model future injury risk. Full-game production informs the award forecast; competitive-drive EPA is a separate performance measure. Awards do not change team ratings.

Historical results use reconstructed source files and a 24-hour result-availability assumption. Previously inspected years are retrospective validation, not a fresh holdout. CPOY training excludes seasons before the 2024 criteria change.

Winner hit rate: 33%. Winner coverage: 100%. Log loss: 3.75. Brier score: 0.90.

Precise probabilities require at least eight validation seasons, complete winner coverage, better log loss than a uniform baseline, and a leader-confidence gap of at most ten percentage points. Until then, rankings remain experimental.

Sources: nflverse player and schedule data, NFL Record and Fact Book, and NFL Honors results.

Rank	Candidate	Season line	Weekly move	Performance rank	Win probability
1	Aidan HutchinsonDET · DE 1 games played. Projected finish: 19.3 sacks · 0.8 defensive interceptions. Defensive production index: 1.72. Main forecast factors QB hits: raises the model score sacks: raises the model score tackles for loss: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	4 tkl, 2 sacks, 0 INT	Unavailable	#6	Experimental
2	Maxx CrosbyLV · DE 1 games played. Projected finish: 14.8 sacks · 0.9 defensive interceptions. Defensive production index: 0.93. Main forecast factors QB hits: raises the model score tackles for loss: raises the model score sacks: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	1 tkl, 1.5 sacks, 0 INT	Unavailable	#28	Experimental
3	Ed OliverBUF · DT 1 games played. Projected finish: 12.8 sacks · 0 defensive interceptions. Defensive production index: 0.16. Main forecast factors tackles for loss: raises the model score QB hits: raises the model score sacks: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	2 tkl, 0 sacks, 0 INT	Unavailable	#126	Experimental
4	T.J. WattPIT · OLB 1 games played. Projected finish: 14.8 sacks · 6 defensive interceptions. Defensive production index: 4.76. Main forecast factors QB hits: raises the model score tackles for loss: raises the model score sacks: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	4 tkl, 2 sacks, 1 INT	Unavailable	#1	Experimental
5	Greg RousseauBUF · LB 1 games played. Projected finish: 14 sacks · 0 defensive interceptions. Defensive production index: 3.22. Main forecast factors QB hits: raises the model score sacks: raises the model score tackles for loss: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	4 tkl, 2 sacks, 0 INT · 2 FF	Unavailable	#3	Experimental
6	Zach AllenDEN · DE 1 games played. Projected finish: 13.7 sacks · 0 defensive interceptions. Defensive production index: 1.48. Main forecast factors QB hits: raises the model score sacks: raises the model score tackles for loss: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	3 tkl, 2 sacks, 0 INT	Unavailable	#10	Experimental
7	Alex HighsmithPIT · LB 1 games played. Projected finish: 17.8 sacks · 0 defensive interceptions. Defensive production index: 1.24. Main forecast factors QB hits: raises the model score tackles for loss: raises the model score sacks: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	2 tkl, 2 sacks, 0 INT	Unavailable	#19	Experimental
8	Nick BosaSF · DE 1 games played. Projected finish: 8.5 sacks · 0 defensive interceptions. Defensive production index: 0.47. Main forecast factors tackles for loss: raises the model score QB hits: raises the model score sacks: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	3 tkl, 0 sacks, 0 INT	Unavailable	#69	Experimental
9	Josh Hines-AllenJAX · DE 1 games played. Projected finish: 12.3 sacks · 0 defensive interceptions. Defensive production index: 1.37. Main forecast factors QB hits: raises the model score sacks: raises the model score tackles for loss: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	2 tkl, 1.5 sacks, 0 INT · 1 FF	Unavailable	#13	Experimental
10	Andrew Van GinkelMIN · OLB 1 games played. Projected finish: 13.8 sacks · 1.1 defensive interceptions. Defensive production index: 1.37. Main forecast factors QB hits: raises the model score sacks: raises the model score tackles for loss: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	2 tkl, 1.5 sacks, 0 INT · 1 FF	Unavailable	#13	Experimental
11	Dallas TurnerMIN · LB 1 games played. Projected finish: 10.2 sacks · 0 defensive interceptions. Defensive production index: 1.80. Main forecast factors QB hits: raises the model score sacks: raises the model score forced fumbles: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	2 tkl, 1 sacks, 0 INT · 1 FF	Unavailable	#5	Experimental
12	Tuli TuipulotuLAC · LB 1 games played. Projected finish: 11.1 sacks · 0 defensive interceptions. Defensive production index: 0.44. Main forecast factors QB hits: raises the model score tackles for loss: raises the model score sacks: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	3 tkl, 0 sacks, 0 INT	Unavailable	#74	Experimental
13	Brian BurnsNYG · LB 1 games played. Projected finish: 12.4 sacks · 0 defensive interceptions. Defensive production index: -0.24. Main forecast factors QB hits: raises the model score tackles for loss: raises the model score sacks: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	2 tkl, 0 sacks, 0 INT	Unavailable	#282	Experimental
14	Nakobe DeanLV · LB 1 games played. Projected finish: 9.9 sacks · 0 defensive interceptions. Defensive production index: 1.42. Main forecast factors tackles for loss: raises the model score solo tackles: raises the model score sacks: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	4 tkl, 1 sacks, 0 INT · 1 FF	Unavailable	#12	Experimental
15	Will McDonald IVNYJ · DE 1 games played. Projected finish: 12.7 sacks · 0 defensive interceptions. Defensive production index: 0.43. Main forecast factors QB hits: raises the model score sacks: raises the model score tackles for loss: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	1 tkl, 1 sacks, 0 INT	Unavailable	#75	Experimental
16	Jadeveon ClowneyHOU · DE 1 games played. Projected finish: 13.3 sacks · 0 defensive interceptions. Defensive production index: 0.59. Main forecast factors QB hits: raises the model score tackles for loss: raises the model score sacks: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	1 tkl, 1 sacks, 0 INT	Unavailable	#56	Experimental
17	Montez SweatCHI · DE 1 games played. Projected finish: 11.7 sacks · 0 defensive interceptions. Defensive production index: 0.43. Main forecast factors QB hits: raises the model score sacks: raises the model score tackles for loss: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	1 tkl, 1 sacks, 0 INT	Unavailable	#75	Experimental
18	Leonard WilliamsSEA · DE 1 games played. Projected finish: 9.8 sacks · 0 defensive interceptions. Defensive production index: 0.58. Main forecast factors QB hits: raises the model score sacks: raises the model score tackles for loss: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	3 tkl, 1 sacks, 0 INT	Unavailable	#57	Experimental
19	Will Anderson Jr.HOU · DE 1 games played. Projected finish: 11.1 sacks · 0 defensive interceptions. Defensive production index: 0.02. Main forecast factors QB hits: raises the model score tackles for loss: raises the model score sacks: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	1 tkl, 0.5 sacks, 0 INT	Unavailable	#162	Experimental
20	Dre'Mont JonesNE · DE 1 games played. Projected finish: 9.5 sacks · 0 defensive interceptions. Defensive production index: 0.93. Main forecast factors QB hits: raises the model score sacks: raises the model score solo tackles: lowers the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	1 tkl, 1 sacks, 0 INT	Unavailable	#29	Experimental
21	Jeffery SimmonsTEN · DT 1 games played. Projected finish: 9.4 sacks · 0 defensive interceptions. Defensive production index: -0.24. Main forecast factors QB hits: raises the model score tackles for loss: raises the model score sacks: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	2 tkl, 0 sacks, 0 INT	Unavailable	#282	Experimental
22	Chase YoungNO · DE 1 games played. Projected finish: 10.7 sacks · 0 defensive interceptions. Defensive production index: 0.05. Main forecast factors QB hits: raises the model score sacks: raises the model score tackles for loss: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	–	Unavailable	#155	Experimental
23	Kwity PayeLV · DE 1 games played. Projected finish: 11.6 sacks · 0 defensive interceptions. Defensive production index: 1.57. Main forecast factors QB hits: raises the model score sacks: raises the model score tackles for loss: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	2 tkl, 2 sacks, 0 INT	Unavailable	#9	Experimental
24	Keisean NixonGB · DB 1 games played. Projected finish: 2.1 sacks · 5 defensive interceptions. Defensive production index: 1.68. Main forecast factors passes defended: raises the model score solo tackles: raises the model score defensive interceptions: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	3 tkl, 0.5 sacks, 1 INT	Unavailable	#7	Experimental
25	Danielle HunterHOU · DE 1 games played. Projected finish: 12 sacks · 0 defensive interceptions. Defensive production index: -0.12. Main forecast factors QB hits: raises the model score sacks: raises the model score tackles for loss: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	–	Unavailable	#217	Experimental

Rank

Candidate

Season line

Weekly move

Performance rank

Win probability

Aidan HutchinsonDET · DE

1 games played. Projected finish: 19.3 sacks · 0.8 defensive interceptions.

Defensive production index: 1.72.

Main forecast factors

QB hits: raises the model score
sacks: raises the model score
tackles for loss: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

4 tkl, 2 sacks, 0 INT

Unavailable

Experimental

Maxx CrosbyLV · DE

1 games played. Projected finish: 14.8 sacks · 0.9 defensive interceptions.

Defensive production index: 0.93.

Main forecast factors

QB hits: raises the model score
tackles for loss: raises the model score
sacks: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

1 tkl, 1.5 sacks, 0 INT

Unavailable

#28

Experimental

Ed OliverBUF · DT

1 games played. Projected finish: 12.8 sacks · 0 defensive interceptions.

Defensive production index: 0.16.

Main forecast factors

tackles for loss: raises the model score
QB hits: raises the model score
sacks: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

2 tkl, 0 sacks, 0 INT

Unavailable

#126

Experimental

T.J. WattPIT · OLB

1 games played. Projected finish: 14.8 sacks · 6 defensive interceptions.

Defensive production index: 4.76.

Main forecast factors

QB hits: raises the model score
tackles for loss: raises the model score
sacks: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

4 tkl, 2 sacks, 1 INT

Unavailable

Experimental

Greg RousseauBUF · LB

1 games played. Projected finish: 14 sacks · 0 defensive interceptions.

Defensive production index: 3.22.

Main forecast factors

QB hits: raises the model score
sacks: raises the model score
tackles for loss: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

4 tkl, 2 sacks, 0 INT · 2 FF

Unavailable

Experimental

Zach AllenDEN · DE

1 games played. Projected finish: 13.7 sacks · 0 defensive interceptions.

Defensive production index: 1.48.

Main forecast factors

QB hits: raises the model score
sacks: raises the model score
tackles for loss: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

3 tkl, 2 sacks, 0 INT

Unavailable

#10

Experimental

Alex HighsmithPIT · LB

1 games played. Projected finish: 17.8 sacks · 0 defensive interceptions.

Defensive production index: 1.24.

Main forecast factors

QB hits: raises the model score
tackles for loss: raises the model score
sacks: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

2 tkl, 2 sacks, 0 INT

Unavailable

#19

Experimental

Nick BosaSF · DE

1 games played. Projected finish: 8.5 sacks · 0 defensive interceptions.

Defensive production index: 0.47.

Main forecast factors

tackles for loss: raises the model score
QB hits: raises the model score
sacks: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

3 tkl, 0 sacks, 0 INT

Unavailable

#69

Experimental

Josh Hines-AllenJAX · DE

1 games played. Projected finish: 12.3 sacks · 0 defensive interceptions.

Defensive production index: 1.37.

Main forecast factors

QB hits: raises the model score
sacks: raises the model score
tackles for loss: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

2 tkl, 1.5 sacks, 0 INT · 1 FF

Unavailable

#13

Experimental

Andrew Van GinkelMIN · OLB

1 games played. Projected finish: 13.8 sacks · 1.1 defensive interceptions.

Defensive production index: 1.37.

Main forecast factors

QB hits: raises the model score
sacks: raises the model score
tackles for loss: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

2 tkl, 1.5 sacks, 0 INT · 1 FF

Unavailable

#13

Experimental

Dallas TurnerMIN · LB

1 games played. Projected finish: 10.2 sacks · 0 defensive interceptions.

Defensive production index: 1.80.

Main forecast factors

QB hits: raises the model score
sacks: raises the model score
forced fumbles: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

2 tkl, 1 sacks, 0 INT · 1 FF

Unavailable

Experimental

Tuli TuipulotuLAC · LB

1 games played. Projected finish: 11.1 sacks · 0 defensive interceptions.

Defensive production index: 0.44.

Main forecast factors

QB hits: raises the model score
tackles for loss: raises the model score
sacks: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

3 tkl, 0 sacks, 0 INT

Unavailable

#74

Experimental

Brian BurnsNYG · LB

1 games played. Projected finish: 12.4 sacks · 0 defensive interceptions.

Defensive production index: -0.24.

Main forecast factors

QB hits: raises the model score
tackles for loss: raises the model score
sacks: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

2 tkl, 0 sacks, 0 INT

Unavailable

#282

Experimental

Nakobe DeanLV · LB

1 games played. Projected finish: 9.9 sacks · 0 defensive interceptions.

Defensive production index: 1.42.

Main forecast factors

tackles for loss: raises the model score
solo tackles: raises the model score
sacks: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

4 tkl, 1 sacks, 0 INT · 1 FF

Unavailable

#12

Experimental

Will McDonald IVNYJ · DE

1 games played. Projected finish: 12.7 sacks · 0 defensive interceptions.

Defensive production index: 0.43.

Main forecast factors

QB hits: raises the model score
sacks: raises the model score
tackles for loss: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

1 tkl, 1 sacks, 0 INT

Unavailable

#75

Experimental

Jadeveon ClowneyHOU · DE

1 games played. Projected finish: 13.3 sacks · 0 defensive interceptions.

Defensive production index: 0.59.

Main forecast factors

QB hits: raises the model score
tackles for loss: raises the model score
sacks: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

1 tkl, 1 sacks, 0 INT

Unavailable

#56

Experimental

Montez SweatCHI · DE

1 games played. Projected finish: 11.7 sacks · 0 defensive interceptions.

Defensive production index: 0.43.

Main forecast factors

QB hits: raises the model score
sacks: raises the model score
tackles for loss: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

1 tkl, 1 sacks, 0 INT

Unavailable

#75

Experimental

Leonard WilliamsSEA · DE

1 games played. Projected finish: 9.8 sacks · 0 defensive interceptions.

Defensive production index: 0.58.

Main forecast factors

QB hits: raises the model score
sacks: raises the model score
tackles for loss: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

3 tkl, 1 sacks, 0 INT

Unavailable

#57

Experimental

Will Anderson Jr.HOU · DE

1 games played. Projected finish: 11.1 sacks · 0 defensive interceptions.

Defensive production index: 0.02.

Main forecast factors

QB hits: raises the model score
tackles for loss: raises the model score
sacks: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

1 tkl, 0.5 sacks, 0 INT

Unavailable

#162

Experimental

Dre'Mont JonesNE · DE

1 games played. Projected finish: 9.5 sacks · 0 defensive interceptions.

Defensive production index: 0.93.

Main forecast factors

QB hits: raises the model score
sacks: raises the model score
solo tackles: lowers the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

1 tkl, 1 sacks, 0 INT

Unavailable

#29

Experimental

Jeffery SimmonsTEN · DT

1 games played. Projected finish: 9.4 sacks · 0 defensive interceptions.

Defensive production index: -0.24.

Main forecast factors

QB hits: raises the model score
tackles for loss: raises the model score
sacks: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

2 tkl, 0 sacks, 0 INT

Unavailable

#282

Experimental

Chase YoungNO · DE

1 games played. Projected finish: 10.7 sacks · 0 defensive interceptions.

Defensive production index: 0.05.

Main forecast factors

QB hits: raises the model score
sacks: raises the model score
tackles for loss: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

–

Unavailable

#155

Experimental

Kwity PayeLV · DE

1 games played. Projected finish: 11.6 sacks · 0 defensive interceptions.

Defensive production index: 1.57.

Main forecast factors

QB hits: raises the model score
sacks: raises the model score
tackles for loss: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

2 tkl, 2 sacks, 0 INT

Unavailable

Experimental

Keisean NixonGB · DB

1 games played. Projected finish: 2.1 sacks · 5 defensive interceptions.

Defensive production index: 1.68.

Main forecast factors

passes defended: raises the model score
solo tackles: raises the model score
defensive interceptions: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

3 tkl, 0.5 sacks, 1 INT

Unavailable

Experimental

Danielle HunterHOU · DE

1 games played. Projected finish: 12 sacks · 0 defensive interceptions.

Defensive production index: -0.12.

Main forecast factors

QB hits: raises the model score
sacks: raises the model score
tackles for loss: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

–

Unavailable

#217

Experimental