The race, week by week

NFL MVP and Awards Tracker

Award forecasts alongside on-field performance. Follow the leaders, see what drives their rankings, and revisit each weekly snapshot.

Updates after completed weekly games

Last updated:

Defensive Player of the Year

2026 season · Through week 2

Choose a historical snapshot

2026 · W5 2026 · W4 2026 · W3 2026 · W2 2026 · W1 2026 · W0

Forecast leader

Greg Rousseau

BUF · LB

Historical top-three hit rate

33%

6 retrospective validation seasons at this horizon

Forecast status

Experimental

Win percentages withheld pending validation

Race trajectory

Predicted rank by weekly snapshot for the current top 8. Each point is what the board said after that week, not a recomputation; weeks ranked below 25 run off the bottom.

Weekly leaders

Week 1

Aidan Hutchinson

DET

Week 2

Greg Rousseau

BUF

Methodology and validation

Each award has a separate regularized model trained on earlier seasons only. Candidates come from statistics available at the selected cutoff. Missing winners count as misses. The model predicts award winners; it does not estimate ballot share.

Remaining-season player totals shrink toward prior-season rates with a four-game prior. Team records use a beta prior. Coach forecasts compare projected wins with a preseason baseline formed from the prior season record. These projections assume continued availability and do not yet model future injury risk. Full-game production informs the award forecast; competitive-drive EPA is a separate performance measure. Awards do not change team ratings.

Historical results use reconstructed source files and a 24-hour result-availability assumption. Previously inspected years are retrospective validation, not a fresh holdout. CPOY training excludes seasons before the 2024 criteria change.

Winner hit rate: 17%. Winner coverage: 100%. Log loss: 4.47. Brier score: 1.12.

Precise probabilities require at least eight validation seasons, complete winner coverage, better log loss than a uniform baseline, and a leader-confidence gap of at most ten percentage points. Until then, rankings remain experimental.

Sources: nflverse player and schedule data, NFL Record and Fact Book, and NFL Honors results.

Rank	Candidate	Season line	Weekly move	Performance rank	Win probability
1	Greg RousseauBUF · LB 2 games played. Projected finish: 18.4 sacks · 0 defensive interceptions. Defensive production index: 3.56. Main forecast factors QB hits: raises the model score tackles for loss: raises the model score forced fumbles: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	7 tkl, 4 sacks, 0 INT · 3 FF	+4	#3	Experimental
2	T.J. WattPIT · OLB 2 games played. Projected finish: 17.3 sacks · 4.9 defensive interceptions. Defensive production index: 4.06. Main forecast factors QB hits: raises the model score tackles for loss: raises the model score defensive interceptions: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	6 tkl, 3.5 sacks, 1 INT	+2	#2	Experimental
3	Aidan HutchinsonDET · DE 2 games played. Projected finish: 19 sacks · 0.6 defensive interceptions. Defensive production index: 1.91. Main forecast factors QB hits: raises the model score tackles for loss: raises the model score forced fumbles: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	6 tkl, 3 sacks, 0 INT · 1 FF	-2	#6	Experimental
4	Devin LloydCAR · LB 2 games played. Projected finish: 4.5 sacks · 10.3 defensive interceptions. Defensive production index: 4.20. Main forecast factors defensive interceptions: raises the model score defensive TDs: raises the model score passes defended: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	15 tkl, 1 sacks, 2 INT	+116	#1	Experimental
5	Dallas TurnerMIN · LB 2 games played. Projected finish: 15.2 sacks · 0 defensive interceptions. Defensive production index: 2.24. Main forecast factors QB hits: raises the model score tackles for loss: raises the model score forced fumbles: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	5 tkl, 3 sacks, 0 INT · 1 FF	+6	#5	Experimental
6	Zach AllenDEN · DE 2 games played. Projected finish: 11.1 sacks · 0 defensive interceptions. Defensive production index: 0.87. Main forecast factors QB hits: raises the model score tackles for loss: raises the model score DL position: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	4 tkl, 2 sacks, 0 INT	0	#38	Experimental
7	Alex HighsmithPIT · LB 2 games played. Projected finish: 17.8 sacks · 0 defensive interceptions. Defensive production index: 1.65. Main forecast factors QB hits: raises the model score tackles for loss: raises the model score LB position: lowers the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	4 tkl, 3 sacks, 0 INT	0	#9	Experimental
8	Maxx CrosbyLV · DE 2 games played. Projected finish: 11.9 sacks · 0.7 defensive interceptions. Defensive production index: 0.52. Main forecast factors QB hits: raises the model score tackles for loss: raises the model score DL position: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	2 tkl, 1.5 sacks, 0 INT	-6	#80	Experimental
9	Andrew Van GinkelMIN · OLB 2 games played. Projected finish: 14.6 sacks · 0.8 defensive interceptions. Defensive production index: 1.51. Main forecast factors QB hits: raises the model score tackles for loss: raises the model score passes defended: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	5 tkl, 2.5 sacks, 0 INT · 1 FF	+1	#11	Experimental
10	Ed OliverBUF · DT 1 games played. Projected finish: 12 sacks · 0 defensive interceptions. Defensive production index: 0.23. Main forecast factors QB hits: raises the model score tackles for loss: raises the model score passes defended: lowers the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	2 tkl, 0 sacks, 0 INT	-7	#146	Experimental
11	Will Anderson Jr.HOU · DE 2 games played. Projected finish: 12.3 sacks · 0 defensive interceptions. Defensive production index: 0.97. Main forecast factors QB hits: raises the model score tackles for loss: raises the model score DL position: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	4 tkl, 1.5 sacks, 0 INT	+8	#26	Experimental
12	Jeffery SimmonsTEN · DT 2 games played. Projected finish: 10.8 sacks · 0 defensive interceptions. Defensive production index: 0.45. Main forecast factors QB hits: raises the model score tackles for loss: raises the model score DL position: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	5 tkl, 1 sacks, 0 INT	+9	#88	Experimental
13	Chase YoungNO · DE 2 games played. Projected finish: 13.6 sacks · 0 defensive interceptions. Defensive production index: 0.53. Main forecast factors QB hits: raises the model score tackles for loss: raises the model score passes defended: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	1 tkl, 1.5 sacks, 0 INT	+9	#78	Experimental
14	Lukas Van NessGB · LB 2 games played. Projected finish: 11.3 sacks · 0 defensive interceptions. Defensive production index: 1.61. Main forecast factors QB hits: raises the model score tackles for loss: raises the model score passes defended: lowers the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	9 tkl, 2.5 sacks, 0 INT	+69	#10	Experimental
15	Josh Hines-AllenJAX · DE 2 games played. Projected finish: 10 sacks · 0 defensive interceptions. Defensive production index: 0.69. Main forecast factors QB hits: raises the model score tackles for loss: raises the model score DL position: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	2 tkl, 1.5 sacks, 0 INT · 1 FF	-6	#52	Experimental
16	Tuli TuipulotuLAC · LB 2 games played. Projected finish: 8.7 sacks · 0 defensive interceptions. Defensive production index: 0.16. Main forecast factors QB hits: raises the model score tackles for loss: raises the model score LB position: lowers the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	3 tkl, 0 sacks, 0 INT	-4	#171	Experimental
17	Deone WalkerBUF · DT 2 games played. Projected finish: 4.2 sacks · 0 defensive interceptions. Defensive production index: 1.10. Main forecast factors QB hits: raises the model score passes defended: raises the model score tackles for loss: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	3 tkl, 1 sacks, 0 INT	+56	#21	Experimental
18	Osa OdighizuwaSF · DT 2 games played. Projected finish: 2.1 sacks · 0 defensive interceptions. Defensive production index: 0.11. Main forecast factors QB hits: raises the model score passes defended: lowers the model score DL position: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	1 tkl, 0 sacks, 0 INT	+21	#185	Experimental
19	Dre'Mont JonesNE · DE 2 games played. Projected finish: 7.6 sacks · 0 defensive interceptions. Defensive production index: 0.37. Main forecast factors QB hits: raises the model score tackles for loss: raises the model score passes defended: lowers the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	1 tkl, 1 sacks, 0 INT	+1	#106	Experimental
20	Danielle HunterHOU · DE 2 games played. Projected finish: 12.9 sacks · 0 defensive interceptions. Defensive production index: 0.38. Main forecast factors QB hits: raises the model score tackles for loss: raises the model score passes defended: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	1 tkl, 1 sacks, 0 INT	+5	#101	Experimental
21	Leonard WilliamsSEA · DE 2 games played. Projected finish: 11.4 sacks · 0 defensive interceptions. Defensive production index: 0.90. Main forecast factors QB hits: raises the model score tackles for loss: raises the model score passes defended: lowers the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	6 tkl, 2 sacks, 0 INT	-3	#33	Experimental
22	Za'Darius SmithATL · DE 2 games played. Projected finish: 12.5 sacks · 0 defensive interceptions. Defensive production index: 1.28. Main forecast factors QB hits: raises the model score tackles for loss: raises the model score DL position: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	3 tkl, 2.5 sacks, 0 INT	+7	#16	Experimental
23	Kaden EllissNO · LB 2 games played. Projected finish: 2.1 sacks · 0.6 defensive interceptions. Defensive production index: 0.70. Main forecast factors QB hits: raises the model score tackles for loss: raises the model score passes defended: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	7 tkl, 0 sacks, 0 INT	+15	#51	Experimental
24	Trent McDuffieLA · CB 2 games played. Projected finish: 0.8 sacks · 4.3 defensive interceptions. Defensive production index: 1.49. Main forecast factors passes defended: raises the model score defensive interceptions: raises the model score QB hits: lowers the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	6 tkl, 0 sacks, 1 INT	+26	#12	Experimental
25	Nick BosaSF · DE 2 games played. Projected finish: 6.7 sacks · 0 defensive interceptions. Defensive production index: 0.08. Main forecast factors tackles for loss: raises the model score QB hits: raises the model score forced fumbles: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	3 tkl, 0 sacks, 0 INT	-17	#194	Experimental

Rank

Candidate

Season line

Weekly move

Performance rank

Win probability

Greg RousseauBUF · LB

2 games played. Projected finish: 18.4 sacks · 0 defensive interceptions.

Defensive production index: 3.56.

Main forecast factors

QB hits: raises the model score
tackles for loss: raises the model score
forced fumbles: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

7 tkl, 4 sacks, 0 INT · 3 FF

Experimental

T.J. WattPIT · OLB

2 games played. Projected finish: 17.3 sacks · 4.9 defensive interceptions.

Defensive production index: 4.06.

Main forecast factors

QB hits: raises the model score
tackles for loss: raises the model score
defensive interceptions: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

6 tkl, 3.5 sacks, 1 INT

Experimental

Aidan HutchinsonDET · DE

2 games played. Projected finish: 19 sacks · 0.6 defensive interceptions.

Defensive production index: 1.91.

Main forecast factors

QB hits: raises the model score
tackles for loss: raises the model score
forced fumbles: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

6 tkl, 3 sacks, 0 INT · 1 FF

-2

Experimental

Devin LloydCAR · LB

2 games played. Projected finish: 4.5 sacks · 10.3 defensive interceptions.

Defensive production index: 4.20.

Main forecast factors

defensive interceptions: raises the model score
defensive TDs: raises the model score
passes defended: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

15 tkl, 1 sacks, 2 INT

+116

Experimental

Dallas TurnerMIN · LB

2 games played. Projected finish: 15.2 sacks · 0 defensive interceptions.

Defensive production index: 2.24.

Main forecast factors

QB hits: raises the model score
tackles for loss: raises the model score
forced fumbles: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

5 tkl, 3 sacks, 0 INT · 1 FF

Experimental

Zach AllenDEN · DE

2 games played. Projected finish: 11.1 sacks · 0 defensive interceptions.

Defensive production index: 0.87.

Main forecast factors

QB hits: raises the model score
tackles for loss: raises the model score
DL position: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

4 tkl, 2 sacks, 0 INT

#38

Experimental

Alex HighsmithPIT · LB

2 games played. Projected finish: 17.8 sacks · 0 defensive interceptions.

Defensive production index: 1.65.

Main forecast factors

QB hits: raises the model score
tackles for loss: raises the model score
LB position: lowers the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

4 tkl, 3 sacks, 0 INT

Experimental

Maxx CrosbyLV · DE

2 games played. Projected finish: 11.9 sacks · 0.7 defensive interceptions.

Defensive production index: 0.52.

Main forecast factors

QB hits: raises the model score
tackles for loss: raises the model score
DL position: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

2 tkl, 1.5 sacks, 0 INT

-6

#80

Experimental

Andrew Van GinkelMIN · OLB

2 games played. Projected finish: 14.6 sacks · 0.8 defensive interceptions.

Defensive production index: 1.51.

Main forecast factors

QB hits: raises the model score
tackles for loss: raises the model score
passes defended: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

5 tkl, 2.5 sacks, 0 INT · 1 FF

#11

Experimental

Ed OliverBUF · DT

1 games played. Projected finish: 12 sacks · 0 defensive interceptions.

Defensive production index: 0.23.

Main forecast factors

QB hits: raises the model score
tackles for loss: raises the model score
passes defended: lowers the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

2 tkl, 0 sacks, 0 INT

-7

#146

Experimental

Will Anderson Jr.HOU · DE

2 games played. Projected finish: 12.3 sacks · 0 defensive interceptions.

Defensive production index: 0.97.

Main forecast factors

QB hits: raises the model score
tackles for loss: raises the model score
DL position: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

4 tkl, 1.5 sacks, 0 INT

#26

Experimental

Jeffery SimmonsTEN · DT

2 games played. Projected finish: 10.8 sacks · 0 defensive interceptions.

Defensive production index: 0.45.

Main forecast factors

QB hits: raises the model score
tackles for loss: raises the model score
DL position: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

5 tkl, 1 sacks, 0 INT

#88

Experimental

Chase YoungNO · DE

2 games played. Projected finish: 13.6 sacks · 0 defensive interceptions.

Defensive production index: 0.53.

Main forecast factors

QB hits: raises the model score
tackles for loss: raises the model score
passes defended: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

1 tkl, 1.5 sacks, 0 INT

#78

Experimental

Lukas Van NessGB · LB

2 games played. Projected finish: 11.3 sacks · 0 defensive interceptions.

Defensive production index: 1.61.

Main forecast factors

QB hits: raises the model score
tackles for loss: raises the model score
passes defended: lowers the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

9 tkl, 2.5 sacks, 0 INT

+69

#10

Experimental

Josh Hines-AllenJAX · DE

2 games played. Projected finish: 10 sacks · 0 defensive interceptions.

Defensive production index: 0.69.

Main forecast factors

QB hits: raises the model score
tackles for loss: raises the model score
DL position: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

2 tkl, 1.5 sacks, 0 INT · 1 FF

-6

#52

Experimental

Tuli TuipulotuLAC · LB

2 games played. Projected finish: 8.7 sacks · 0 defensive interceptions.

Defensive production index: 0.16.

Main forecast factors

QB hits: raises the model score
tackles for loss: raises the model score
LB position: lowers the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

3 tkl, 0 sacks, 0 INT

-4

#171

Experimental

Deone WalkerBUF · DT

2 games played. Projected finish: 4.2 sacks · 0 defensive interceptions.

Defensive production index: 1.10.

Main forecast factors

QB hits: raises the model score
passes defended: raises the model score
tackles for loss: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

3 tkl, 1 sacks, 0 INT

+56

#21

Experimental

Osa OdighizuwaSF · DT

2 games played. Projected finish: 2.1 sacks · 0 defensive interceptions.

Defensive production index: 0.11.

Main forecast factors

QB hits: raises the model score
passes defended: lowers the model score
DL position: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

1 tkl, 0 sacks, 0 INT

+21

#185

Experimental

Dre'Mont JonesNE · DE

2 games played. Projected finish: 7.6 sacks · 0 defensive interceptions.

Defensive production index: 0.37.

Main forecast factors

QB hits: raises the model score
tackles for loss: raises the model score
passes defended: lowers the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

1 tkl, 1 sacks, 0 INT

#106

Experimental

Danielle HunterHOU · DE

2 games played. Projected finish: 12.9 sacks · 0 defensive interceptions.

Defensive production index: 0.38.

Main forecast factors

QB hits: raises the model score
tackles for loss: raises the model score
passes defended: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

1 tkl, 1 sacks, 0 INT

#101

Experimental

Leonard WilliamsSEA · DE

2 games played. Projected finish: 11.4 sacks · 0 defensive interceptions.

Defensive production index: 0.90.

Main forecast factors

QB hits: raises the model score
tackles for loss: raises the model score
passes defended: lowers the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

6 tkl, 2 sacks, 0 INT

-3

#33

Experimental

Za'Darius SmithATL · DE

2 games played. Projected finish: 12.5 sacks · 0 defensive interceptions.

Defensive production index: 1.28.

Main forecast factors

QB hits: raises the model score
tackles for loss: raises the model score
DL position: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

3 tkl, 2.5 sacks, 0 INT

#16

Experimental

Kaden EllissNO · LB

2 games played. Projected finish: 2.1 sacks · 0.6 defensive interceptions.

Defensive production index: 0.70.

Main forecast factors

QB hits: raises the model score
tackles for loss: raises the model score
passes defended: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

7 tkl, 0 sacks, 0 INT

+15

#51

Experimental

Trent McDuffieLA · CB

2 games played. Projected finish: 0.8 sacks · 4.3 defensive interceptions.

Defensive production index: 1.49.

Main forecast factors

passes defended: raises the model score
defensive interceptions: raises the model score
QB hits: lowers the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

6 tkl, 0 sacks, 1 INT

+26

#12

Experimental

Nick BosaSF · DE

2 games played. Projected finish: 6.7 sacks · 0 defensive interceptions.

Defensive production index: 0.08.

Main forecast factors

tackles for loss: raises the model score
QB hits: raises the model score
forced fumbles: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

3 tkl, 0 sacks, 0 INT

-17

#194

Experimental