The race, week by week

NFL MVP and Awards Tracker

Award forecasts alongside on-field performance. Follow the leaders, see what drives their rankings, and revisit each weekly snapshot.

Updates after completed weekly games

Last updated:

Defensive Rookie of the Year

2026 season · Through week 1

Choose a historical snapshot

2026 · W5 2026 · W4 2026 · W3 2026 · W2 2026 · W1 2026 · W0

Forecast leader

Josiah Trotter

TB · LB

Historical top-three hit rate

50%

6 retrospective validation seasons at this horizon

Forecast status

Experimental

Win percentages withheld pending validation

Race trajectory

The race chart needs at least two weekly snapshots.

Weekly leaders

Week 1

Josiah Trotter

Methodology and validation

Each award has a separate regularized model trained on earlier seasons only. Candidates come from statistics available at the selected cutoff. Missing winners count as misses. The model predicts award winners; it does not estimate ballot share.

Remaining-season player totals shrink toward prior-season rates with a four-game prior. Team records use a beta prior. Coach forecasts compare projected wins with a preseason baseline formed from the prior season record. These projections assume continued availability and do not yet model future injury risk. Full-game production informs the award forecast; competitive-drive EPA is a separate performance measure. Awards do not change team ratings.

Historical results use reconstructed source files and a 24-hour result-availability assumption. Previously inspected years are retrospective validation, not a fresh holdout. CPOY training excludes seasons before the 2024 criteria change.

Winner hit rate: 50%. Winner coverage: 100%. Log loss: 3.12. Brier score: 0.89.

Precise probabilities require at least eight validation seasons, complete winner coverage, better log loss than a uniform baseline, and a leader-confidence gap of at most ten percentage points. Until then, rankings remain experimental.

Sources: nflverse player and schedule data, NFL Record and Fact Book, and NFL Honors results.

Rank	Candidate	Season line	Weekly move	Performance rank	Win probability
1	Josiah TrotterTB · LB 1 games played. Projected finish: 6.2 sacks · 4.4 defensive interceptions. Defensive production index: 2.93. Main forecast factors defensive TDs: raises the model score tackles for loss: raises the model score QB hits: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	4 tkl, 1 sacks, 1 INT	Unavailable	#1	Experimental
2	Sonny StylesWAS · LB 1 games played. Projected finish: 6.2 sacks · 0.2 defensive interceptions. Defensive production index: 1.16. Main forecast factors tackles for loss: raises the model score QB hits: raises the model score sacks: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	3 tkl, 1 sacks, 0 INT	Unavailable	#2	Experimental
3	Gabe JacasNE · LB 1 games played. Projected finish: 6.2 sacks · 0.2 defensive interceptions. Defensive production index: 1.16. Main forecast factors tackles for loss: raises the model score QB hits: raises the model score sacks: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	3 tkl, 1 sacks, 0 INT	Unavailable	#2	Experimental
4	R Mason ThomasKC · DE 1 games played. Projected finish: 8.3 sacks · 0 defensive interceptions. Defensive production index: 0.77. Main forecast factors QB hits: raises the model score tackles for loss: raises the model score solo tackles: lowers the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	1 tkl, 1 sacks, 0 INT	Unavailable	#6	Experimental
5	David BaileyNYJ · LB 1 games played. Projected finish: 6.2 sacks · 0.2 defensive interceptions. Defensive production index: 1.02. Main forecast factors QB hits: raises the model score tackles for loss: raises the model score sacks: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	4 tkl, 1 sacks, 0 INT	Unavailable	#4	Experimental
6	Arvell ReeseNYG · LB 1 games played. Projected finish: 2 sacks · 0.2 defensive interceptions. Defensive production index: 0.59. Main forecast factors QB hits: raises the model score tackles for loss: raises the model score solo tackles: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	4 tkl, 0 sacks, 0 INT	Unavailable	#8	Experimental
7	Chris JohnsonMIA · CB 1 games played. Projected finish: 0.2 sacks · 0.7 defensive interceptions. Defensive production index: 0.73. Main forecast factors solo tackles: raises the model score passes defended: raises the model score QB hits: lowers the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	5 tkl, 0 sacks, 0 INT	Unavailable	#7	Experimental
8	Jaishawn BarhamDAL · LB 1 games played. Projected finish: 2 sacks · 0.2 defensive interceptions. Defensive production index: 0.11. Main forecast factors tackles for loss: raises the model score solo tackles: raises the model score passes defended: lowers the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	3 tkl, 0 sacks, 0 INT	Unavailable	#12	Experimental
9	Eric O'NeillDET · DE 1 games played. Projected finish: 4.1 sacks · 0 defensive interceptions. Defensive production index: -0.20. Main forecast factors QB hits: raises the model score solo tackles: lowers the model score DL position: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	2 tkl, 0 sacks, 0 INT	Unavailable	#23	Experimental
10	Jacob RodriguezMIA · LB 1 games played. Projected finish: 2 sacks · 0.2 defensive interceptions. Defensive production index: 0.05. Main forecast factors solo tackles: raises the model score passes defended: lowers the model score LB position: lowers the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	5 tkl, 0 sacks, 0 INT	Unavailable	#13	Experimental
11	Anthony Hill Jr.TEN · LB 1 games played. Projected finish: 2 sacks · 0.2 defensive interceptions. Defensive production index: 0.25. Main forecast factors passes defended: raises the model score LB position: lowers the model score tackles for loss: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	2 tkl, 0 sacks, 0 INT	Unavailable	#11	Experimental
12	Will Lee IIICAR · CB 1 games played. Projected finish: 0.2 sacks · 0.7 defensive interceptions. Defensive production index: 0.27. Main forecast factors solo tackles: raises the model score QB hits: lowers the model score passes defended: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	5 tkl, 0 sacks, 0 INT	Unavailable	#10	Experimental
13	Caden CurryIND · DE 1 games played. Projected finish: 4.1 sacks · 0 defensive interceptions. Defensive production index: -0.36. Main forecast factors solo tackles: lowers the model score QB hits: raises the model score DL position: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	–	Unavailable	#39	Experimental
14	Sabastian HarshHOU · DE 1 games played. Projected finish: 4.1 sacks · 0 defensive interceptions. Defensive production index: -0.36. Main forecast factors solo tackles: lowers the model score QB hits: raises the model score DL position: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	–	Unavailable	#39	Experimental
15	Keldric FaulkTEN · DE 1 games played. Projected finish: 4.1 sacks · 0 defensive interceptions. Defensive production index: -0.36. Main forecast factors solo tackles: lowers the model score QB hits: raises the model score DL position: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	–	Unavailable	#39	Experimental
16	Keith Abney IIDET · CB 1 games played. Projected finish: 0.2 sacks · 0.7 defensive interceptions. Defensive production index: 0.03. Main forecast factors QB hits: lowers the model score tackles for loss: raises the model score solo tackles: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	2 tkl, 0 sacks, 0 INT	Unavailable	#14	Experimental
17	Malik MuhammadCHI · CB 1 games played. Projected finish: 0.2 sacks · 4.9 defensive interceptions. Defensive production index: 0.79. Main forecast factors passes defended: raises the model score QB hits: lowers the model score solo tackles: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	2 tkl, 0 sacks, 1 INT	Unavailable	#5	Experimental
18	Domonique OrangeMIN · DT 1 games played. Projected finish: 1.1 sacks · 0 defensive interceptions. Defensive production index: 0.03. Main forecast factors solo tackles: lowers the model score tackles for loss: raises the model score DL position: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	2 tkl, 0 sacks, 0 INT	Unavailable	#14	Experimental
19	Karson ShararARI · LB 1 games played. Projected finish: 2 sacks · 0.2 defensive interceptions. Defensive production index: -0.20. Main forecast factors passes defended: lowers the model score LB position: lowers the model score tackles for loss: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	2 tkl, 0 sacks, 0 INT	Unavailable	#23	Experimental
20	Namdi ObiazorNE · LB 1 games played. Projected finish: 2 sacks · 0.2 defensive interceptions. Defensive production index: -0.20. Main forecast factors passes defended: lowers the model score LB position: lowers the model score tackles for loss: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	2 tkl, 0 sacks, 0 INT	Unavailable	#23	Experimental
21	Bryce BoettcherIND · LB 1 games played. Projected finish: 2 sacks · 0.2 defensive interceptions. Defensive production index: -0.20. Main forecast factors passes defended: lowers the model score LB position: lowers the model score tackles for loss: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	2 tkl, 0 sacks, 0 INT	Unavailable	#23	Experimental
22	Malachi LawrenceDAL · LB 1 games played. Projected finish: 2 sacks · 0.2 defensive interceptions. Defensive production index: -0.20. Main forecast factors passes defended: lowers the model score LB position: lowers the model score tackles for loss: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	2 tkl, 0 sacks, 0 INT	Unavailable	#23	Experimental
23	Keionte ScottTB · CB 1 games played. Projected finish: 0.2 sacks · 0.7 defensive interceptions. Defensive production index: -0.03. Main forecast factors solo tackles: raises the model score QB hits: lowers the model score sacks: lowers the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	4 tkl, 0 sacks, 0 INT	Unavailable	#16	Experimental
24	Lee HunterCAR · DT 1 games played. Projected finish: 1.1 sacks · 0 defensive interceptions. Defensive production index: -0.03. Main forecast factors DL position: raises the model score passes defended: lowers the model score solo tackles: lowers the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	4 tkl, 0 sacks, 0 INT	Unavailable	#16	Experimental
25	Rueben Bain Jr.TB · LB 1 games played. Projected finish: 2 sacks · 0.2 defensive interceptions. Defensive production index: -0.28. Main forecast factors solo tackles: lowers the model score passes defended: lowers the model score LB position: lowers the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	1 tkl, 0 sacks, 0 INT	Unavailable	#28	Experimental

Rank

Candidate

Season line

Weekly move

Performance rank

Win probability

Josiah TrotterTB · LB

1 games played. Projected finish: 6.2 sacks · 4.4 defensive interceptions.

Defensive production index: 2.93.

Main forecast factors

defensive TDs: raises the model score
tackles for loss: raises the model score
QB hits: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

4 tkl, 1 sacks, 1 INT

Unavailable

Experimental

Sonny StylesWAS · LB

1 games played. Projected finish: 6.2 sacks · 0.2 defensive interceptions.

Defensive production index: 1.16.

Main forecast factors

tackles for loss: raises the model score
QB hits: raises the model score
sacks: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

3 tkl, 1 sacks, 0 INT

Unavailable

Experimental

Gabe JacasNE · LB

1 games played. Projected finish: 6.2 sacks · 0.2 defensive interceptions.

Defensive production index: 1.16.

Main forecast factors

tackles for loss: raises the model score
QB hits: raises the model score
sacks: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

3 tkl, 1 sacks, 0 INT

Unavailable

Experimental

R Mason ThomasKC · DE

1 games played. Projected finish: 8.3 sacks · 0 defensive interceptions.

Defensive production index: 0.77.

Main forecast factors

QB hits: raises the model score
tackles for loss: raises the model score
solo tackles: lowers the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

1 tkl, 1 sacks, 0 INT

Unavailable

Experimental

David BaileyNYJ · LB

1 games played. Projected finish: 6.2 sacks · 0.2 defensive interceptions.

Defensive production index: 1.02.

Main forecast factors

QB hits: raises the model score
tackles for loss: raises the model score
sacks: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

4 tkl, 1 sacks, 0 INT

Unavailable

Experimental

Arvell ReeseNYG · LB

1 games played. Projected finish: 2 sacks · 0.2 defensive interceptions.

Defensive production index: 0.59.

Main forecast factors

QB hits: raises the model score
tackles for loss: raises the model score
solo tackles: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

4 tkl, 0 sacks, 0 INT

Unavailable

Experimental

Chris JohnsonMIA · CB

1 games played. Projected finish: 0.2 sacks · 0.7 defensive interceptions.

Defensive production index: 0.73.

Main forecast factors

solo tackles: raises the model score
passes defended: raises the model score
QB hits: lowers the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

5 tkl, 0 sacks, 0 INT

Unavailable

Experimental

Jaishawn BarhamDAL · LB

1 games played. Projected finish: 2 sacks · 0.2 defensive interceptions.

Defensive production index: 0.11.

Main forecast factors

tackles for loss: raises the model score
solo tackles: raises the model score
passes defended: lowers the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

3 tkl, 0 sacks, 0 INT

Unavailable

#12

Experimental

Eric O'NeillDET · DE

1 games played. Projected finish: 4.1 sacks · 0 defensive interceptions.

Defensive production index: -0.20.

Main forecast factors

QB hits: raises the model score
solo tackles: lowers the model score
DL position: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

2 tkl, 0 sacks, 0 INT

Unavailable

#23

Experimental

Jacob RodriguezMIA · LB

1 games played. Projected finish: 2 sacks · 0.2 defensive interceptions.

Defensive production index: 0.05.

Main forecast factors

solo tackles: raises the model score
passes defended: lowers the model score
LB position: lowers the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

5 tkl, 0 sacks, 0 INT

Unavailable

#13

Experimental

Anthony Hill Jr.TEN · LB

1 games played. Projected finish: 2 sacks · 0.2 defensive interceptions.

Defensive production index: 0.25.

Main forecast factors

passes defended: raises the model score
LB position: lowers the model score
tackles for loss: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

2 tkl, 0 sacks, 0 INT

Unavailable

#11

Experimental

Will Lee IIICAR · CB

1 games played. Projected finish: 0.2 sacks · 0.7 defensive interceptions.

Defensive production index: 0.27.

Main forecast factors

solo tackles: raises the model score
QB hits: lowers the model score
passes defended: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

5 tkl, 0 sacks, 0 INT

Unavailable

#10

Experimental

Caden CurryIND · DE

1 games played. Projected finish: 4.1 sacks · 0 defensive interceptions.

Defensive production index: -0.36.

Main forecast factors

solo tackles: lowers the model score
QB hits: raises the model score
DL position: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

–

Unavailable

#39

Experimental

Sabastian HarshHOU · DE

1 games played. Projected finish: 4.1 sacks · 0 defensive interceptions.

Defensive production index: -0.36.

Main forecast factors

solo tackles: lowers the model score
QB hits: raises the model score
DL position: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

–

Unavailable

#39

Experimental

Keldric FaulkTEN · DE

1 games played. Projected finish: 4.1 sacks · 0 defensive interceptions.

Defensive production index: -0.36.

Main forecast factors

solo tackles: lowers the model score
QB hits: raises the model score
DL position: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

–

Unavailable

#39

Experimental

Keith Abney IIDET · CB

1 games played. Projected finish: 0.2 sacks · 0.7 defensive interceptions.

Defensive production index: 0.03.

Main forecast factors

QB hits: lowers the model score
tackles for loss: raises the model score
solo tackles: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

2 tkl, 0 sacks, 0 INT

Unavailable

#14

Experimental

Malik MuhammadCHI · CB

1 games played. Projected finish: 0.2 sacks · 4.9 defensive interceptions.

Defensive production index: 0.79.

Main forecast factors

passes defended: raises the model score
QB hits: lowers the model score
solo tackles: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

2 tkl, 0 sacks, 1 INT

Unavailable

Experimental

Domonique OrangeMIN · DT

1 games played. Projected finish: 1.1 sacks · 0 defensive interceptions.

Defensive production index: 0.03.

Main forecast factors

solo tackles: lowers the model score
tackles for loss: raises the model score
DL position: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

2 tkl, 0 sacks, 0 INT

Unavailable

#14

Experimental

Karson ShararARI · LB

1 games played. Projected finish: 2 sacks · 0.2 defensive interceptions.

Defensive production index: -0.20.

Main forecast factors

passes defended: lowers the model score
LB position: lowers the model score
tackles for loss: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

2 tkl, 0 sacks, 0 INT

Unavailable

#23

Experimental

Namdi ObiazorNE · LB

1 games played. Projected finish: 2 sacks · 0.2 defensive interceptions.

Defensive production index: -0.20.

Main forecast factors

passes defended: lowers the model score
LB position: lowers the model score
tackles for loss: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

2 tkl, 0 sacks, 0 INT

Unavailable

#23

Experimental

Bryce BoettcherIND · LB

1 games played. Projected finish: 2 sacks · 0.2 defensive interceptions.

Defensive production index: -0.20.

Main forecast factors

passes defended: lowers the model score
LB position: lowers the model score
tackles for loss: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

2 tkl, 0 sacks, 0 INT

Unavailable

#23

Experimental

Malachi LawrenceDAL · LB

1 games played. Projected finish: 2 sacks · 0.2 defensive interceptions.

Defensive production index: -0.20.

Main forecast factors

passes defended: lowers the model score
LB position: lowers the model score
tackles for loss: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

2 tkl, 0 sacks, 0 INT

Unavailable

#23

Experimental

Keionte ScottTB · CB

1 games played. Projected finish: 0.2 sacks · 0.7 defensive interceptions.

Defensive production index: -0.03.

Main forecast factors

solo tackles: raises the model score
QB hits: lowers the model score
sacks: lowers the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

4 tkl, 0 sacks, 0 INT

Unavailable

#16

Experimental

Lee HunterCAR · DT

1 games played. Projected finish: 1.1 sacks · 0 defensive interceptions.

Defensive production index: -0.03.

Main forecast factors

DL position: raises the model score
passes defended: lowers the model score
solo tackles: lowers the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

4 tkl, 0 sacks, 0 INT

Unavailable

#16

Experimental

Rueben Bain Jr.TB · LB

1 games played. Projected finish: 2 sacks · 0.2 defensive interceptions.

Defensive production index: -0.28.

Main forecast factors

solo tackles: lowers the model score
passes defended: lowers the model score
LB position: lowers the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

1 tkl, 0 sacks, 0 INT

Unavailable

#28

Experimental