The race, week by week

NFL MVP and Awards Tracker

Award forecasts alongside on-field performance. Follow the leaders, see what drives their rankings, and revisit each weekly snapshot.

Updates after completed weekly games

Last updated:

Defensive Rookie of the Year

2026 season · Through week 2

Choose a historical snapshot

2026 · W5 2026 · W4 2026 · W3 2026 · W2 2026 · W1 2026 · W0

Forecast leader

Josiah Trotter

TB · LB

Historical top-three hit rate

67%

6 retrospective validation seasons at this horizon

Forecast status

Experimental

Win percentages withheld pending validation

Race trajectory

Predicted rank by weekly snapshot for the current top 8. Each point is what the board said after that week, not a recomputation; weeks ranked below 25 run off the bottom.

Weekly leaders

Week 1

Josiah Trotter

Week 2

Josiah Trotter

Methodology and validation

Each award has a separate regularized model trained on earlier seasons only. Candidates come from statistics available at the selected cutoff. Missing winners count as misses. The model predicts award winners; it does not estimate ballot share.

Remaining-season player totals shrink toward prior-season rates with a four-game prior. Team records use a beta prior. Coach forecasts compare projected wins with a preseason baseline formed from the prior season record. These projections assume continued availability and do not yet model future injury risk. Full-game production informs the award forecast; competitive-drive EPA is a separate performance measure. Awards do not change team ratings.

Historical results use reconstructed source files and a 24-hour result-availability assumption. Previously inspected years are retrospective validation, not a fresh holdout. CPOY training excludes seasons before the 2024 criteria change.

Winner hit rate: 33%. Winner coverage: 100%. Log loss: 2.63. Brier score: 0.79.

Precise probabilities require at least eight validation seasons, complete winner coverage, better log loss than a uniform baseline, and a leader-confidence gap of at most ten percentage points. Until then, rankings remain experimental.

Sources: nflverse player and schedule data, NFL Record and Fact Book, and NFL Honors results.

Rank	Candidate	Season line	Weekly move	Performance rank	Win probability
1	Josiah TrotterTB · LB 2 games played. Projected finish: 4.9 sacks · 3.7 defensive interceptions. Defensive production index: 2.46. Main forecast factors solo tackles: raises the model score defensive TDs: raises the model score games played: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	10 tkl, 1 sacks, 1 INT	0	#1	Experimental
2	David BaileyNYJ · LB 2 games played. Projected finish: 8.4 sacks · 0.2 defensive interceptions. Defensive production index: 1.90. Main forecast factors sacks: raises the model score games played: raises the model score QB hits: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	6 tkl, 2 sacks, 0 INT · 1 FF	+3	#2	Experimental
3	Gabe JacasNE · LB 2 games played. Projected finish: 4.9 sacks · 3.7 defensive interceptions. Defensive production index: 1.27. Main forecast factors games played: raises the model score QB hits: raises the model score sacks: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	4 tkl, 1 sacks, 1 INT	0	#3	Experimental
4	R Mason ThomasKC · DE 2 games played. Projected finish: 6.4 sacks · 0 defensive interceptions. Defensive production index: 0.43. Main forecast factors QB hits: raises the model score games played: raises the model score solo tackles: lowers the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	1 tkl, 1 sacks, 0 INT	0	#10	Experimental
5	Anthony Hill Jr.TEN · LB 2 games played. Projected finish: 1.4 sacks · 0.2 defensive interceptions. Defensive production index: 0.32. Main forecast factors solo tackles: raises the model score games played: raises the model score passes defended: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	8 tkl, 0 sacks, 0 INT	+6	#14	Experimental
6	Malik MuhammadCHI · CB 2 games played. Projected finish: 3.7 sacks · 4.1 defensive interceptions. Defensive production index: 1.08. Main forecast factors games played: raises the model score passes defended: raises the model score solo tackles: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	4 tkl, 1 sacks, 1 INT	+11	#5	Experimental
7	Jacob RodriguezMIA · LB 2 games played. Projected finish: 1.4 sacks · 0.2 defensive interceptions. Defensive production index: 0.16. Main forecast factors solo tackles: raises the model score games played: raises the model score QB hits: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	8 tkl, 0 sacks, 0 INT	+3	#21	Experimental
8	Will Lee IIICAR · CB 2 games played. Projected finish: 0.2 sacks · 0.6 defensive interceptions. Defensive production index: 0.40. Main forecast factors passes defended: raises the model score games played: raises the model score solo tackles: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	6 tkl, 0 sacks, 0 INT	+4	#12	Experimental
9	Arvell ReeseNYG · LB 2 games played. Projected finish: 1.4 sacks · 0.2 defensive interceptions. Defensive production index: 0.28. Main forecast factors games played: raises the model score solo tackles: raises the model score QB hits: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	7 tkl, 0 sacks, 0 INT	-3	#16	Experimental
10	Sabastian HarshHOU · DE 2 games played. Projected finish: 4.6 sacks · 0 defensive interceptions. Defensive production index: -0.06. Main forecast factors games played: raises the model score solo tackles: lowers the model score QB hits: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	1 tkl, 0.5 sacks, 0 INT	+4	#30	Experimental
11	Brandon CisseGB · CB 2 games played. Projected finish: 1.9 sacks · 0.6 defensive interceptions. Defensive production index: 0.32. Main forecast factors games played: raises the model score solo tackles: raises the model score passes defended: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	5 tkl, 0.5 sacks, 0 INT	+22	#15	Experimental
12	Sonny StylesWAS · LB 2 games played. Projected finish: 4.9 sacks · 0.2 defensive interceptions. Defensive production index: 0.53. Main forecast factors games played: raises the model score sacks: raises the model score QB hits: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	3 tkl, 1 sacks, 0 INT	-10	#9	Experimental
13	Dani Dennis-SuttonGB · LB 2 games played. Projected finish: 3.2 sacks · 0.2 defensive interceptions. Defensive production index: 0.18. Main forecast factors games played: raises the model score QB hits: raises the model score passes defended: lowers the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	2 tkl, 0.5 sacks, 0 INT	+21	#20	Experimental
14	Hezekiah MassesLV · CB 2 games played. Projected finish: 0.2 sacks · 7.6 defensive interceptions. Defensive production index: 1.13. Main forecast factors passes defended: raises the model score games played: raises the model score QB hits: lowers the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	4 tkl, 0 sacks, 2 INT	+26	#4	Experimental
15	Chris JohnsonMIA · CB 2 games played. Projected finish: 0.2 sacks · 0.6 defensive interceptions. Defensive production index: 0.40. Main forecast factors games played: raises the model score passes defended: raises the model score solo tackles: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	6 tkl, 0 sacks, 0 INT	-8	#11	Experimental
16	Jaishawn BarhamDAL · LB 2 games played. Projected finish: 1.4 sacks · 0.2 defensive interceptions. Defensive production index: 1.04. Main forecast factors games played: raises the model score solo tackles: raises the model score passes defended: lowers the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	7 tkl, 0 sacks, 0 INT · 1 FF	-8	#6	Experimental
17	Akheem MesidorLAC · LB 2 games played. Projected finish: 3.2 sacks · 0.2 defensive interceptions. Defensive production index: 0.12. Main forecast factors games played: raises the model score QB hits: raises the model score solo tackles: lowers the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	1 tkl, 0.5 sacks, 0 INT	+14	#22	Experimental
18	Eric O'NeillDET · DE 2 games played. Projected finish: 2.9 sacks · 0 defensive interceptions. Defensive production index: -0.28. Main forecast factors games played: raises the model score DL position: raises the model score solo tackles: lowers the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	3 tkl, 0 sacks, 0 INT	-9	#42	Experimental
19	Keionte ScottTB · CB 2 games played. Projected finish: 0.2 sacks · 0.6 defensive interceptions. Defensive production index: 0.03. Main forecast factors solo tackles: raises the model score games played: raises the model score QB hits: lowers the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	9 tkl, 0 sacks, 0 INT	+4	#26	Experimental
20	Malachi LawrenceDAL · LB 2 games played. Projected finish: 1.4 sacks · 0.2 defensive interceptions. Defensive production index: -0.09. Main forecast factors games played: raises the model score QB hits: raises the model score passes defended: lowers the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	3 tkl, 0 sacks, 0 INT	+2	#31	Experimental
21	Caden CurryIND · DE 2 games played. Projected finish: 2.9 sacks · 0 defensive interceptions. Defensive production index: -0.38. Main forecast factors games played: raises the model score solo tackles: lowers the model score DL position: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	1 tkl, 0 sacks, 0 INT	-8	#57	Experimental
22	Davison IgbinosunBUF · CB 2 games played. Projected finish: 0.2 sacks · 0.6 defensive interceptions. Defensive production index: -0.00. Main forecast factors games played: raises the model score solo tackles: raises the model score passes defended: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	5 tkl, 0 sacks, 0 INT	+10	#27	Experimental
23	Aaron HallCAR · DT 2 games played. Projected finish: 1.1 sacks · 0 defensive interceptions. Defensive production index: -0.20. Main forecast factors games played: raises the model score solo tackles: lowers the model score DL position: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	1 tkl, 0 sacks, 0 INT	+28	#34	Experimental
24	Skyler Gill-HowardDET · DT 2 games played. Projected finish: 1.1 sacks · 0 defensive interceptions. Defensive production index: -0.20. Main forecast factors games played: raises the model score solo tackles: lowers the model score DL position: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	1 tkl, 0 sacks, 0 INT	+22	#34	Experimental
25	Keldric FaulkTEN · DE 2 games played. Projected finish: 2.9 sacks · 0 defensive interceptions. Defensive production index: -0.43. Main forecast factors solo tackles: lowers the model score games played: raises the model score DL position: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	–	-10	#64	Experimental

Rank

Candidate

Season line

Weekly move

Performance rank

Win probability

Josiah TrotterTB · LB

2 games played. Projected finish: 4.9 sacks · 3.7 defensive interceptions.

Defensive production index: 2.46.

Main forecast factors

solo tackles: raises the model score
defensive TDs: raises the model score
games played: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

10 tkl, 1 sacks, 1 INT

Experimental

David BaileyNYJ · LB

2 games played. Projected finish: 8.4 sacks · 0.2 defensive interceptions.

Defensive production index: 1.90.

Main forecast factors

sacks: raises the model score
games played: raises the model score
QB hits: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

6 tkl, 2 sacks, 0 INT · 1 FF

Experimental

Gabe JacasNE · LB

2 games played. Projected finish: 4.9 sacks · 3.7 defensive interceptions.

Defensive production index: 1.27.

Main forecast factors

games played: raises the model score
QB hits: raises the model score
sacks: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

4 tkl, 1 sacks, 1 INT

Experimental

R Mason ThomasKC · DE

2 games played. Projected finish: 6.4 sacks · 0 defensive interceptions.

Defensive production index: 0.43.

Main forecast factors

QB hits: raises the model score
games played: raises the model score
solo tackles: lowers the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

1 tkl, 1 sacks, 0 INT

#10

Experimental

Anthony Hill Jr.TEN · LB

2 games played. Projected finish: 1.4 sacks · 0.2 defensive interceptions.

Defensive production index: 0.32.

Main forecast factors

solo tackles: raises the model score
games played: raises the model score
passes defended: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

8 tkl, 0 sacks, 0 INT

#14

Experimental

Malik MuhammadCHI · CB

2 games played. Projected finish: 3.7 sacks · 4.1 defensive interceptions.

Defensive production index: 1.08.

Main forecast factors

games played: raises the model score
passes defended: raises the model score
solo tackles: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

4 tkl, 1 sacks, 1 INT

+11

Experimental

Jacob RodriguezMIA · LB

2 games played. Projected finish: 1.4 sacks · 0.2 defensive interceptions.

Defensive production index: 0.16.

Main forecast factors

solo tackles: raises the model score
games played: raises the model score
QB hits: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

8 tkl, 0 sacks, 0 INT

#21

Experimental

Will Lee IIICAR · CB

2 games played. Projected finish: 0.2 sacks · 0.6 defensive interceptions.

Defensive production index: 0.40.

Main forecast factors

passes defended: raises the model score
games played: raises the model score
solo tackles: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

6 tkl, 0 sacks, 0 INT

#12

Experimental

Arvell ReeseNYG · LB

2 games played. Projected finish: 1.4 sacks · 0.2 defensive interceptions.

Defensive production index: 0.28.

Main forecast factors

games played: raises the model score
solo tackles: raises the model score
QB hits: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

7 tkl, 0 sacks, 0 INT

-3

#16

Experimental

Sabastian HarshHOU · DE

2 games played. Projected finish: 4.6 sacks · 0 defensive interceptions.

Defensive production index: -0.06.

Main forecast factors

games played: raises the model score
solo tackles: lowers the model score
QB hits: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

1 tkl, 0.5 sacks, 0 INT

#30

Experimental

Brandon CisseGB · CB

2 games played. Projected finish: 1.9 sacks · 0.6 defensive interceptions.

Defensive production index: 0.32.

Main forecast factors

games played: raises the model score
solo tackles: raises the model score
passes defended: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

5 tkl, 0.5 sacks, 0 INT

+22

#15

Experimental

Sonny StylesWAS · LB

2 games played. Projected finish: 4.9 sacks · 0.2 defensive interceptions.

Defensive production index: 0.53.

Main forecast factors

games played: raises the model score
sacks: raises the model score
QB hits: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

3 tkl, 1 sacks, 0 INT

-10

Experimental

Dani Dennis-SuttonGB · LB

2 games played. Projected finish: 3.2 sacks · 0.2 defensive interceptions.

Defensive production index: 0.18.

Main forecast factors

games played: raises the model score
QB hits: raises the model score
passes defended: lowers the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

2 tkl, 0.5 sacks, 0 INT

+21

#20

Experimental

Hezekiah MassesLV · CB

2 games played. Projected finish: 0.2 sacks · 7.6 defensive interceptions.

Defensive production index: 1.13.

Main forecast factors

passes defended: raises the model score
games played: raises the model score
QB hits: lowers the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

4 tkl, 0 sacks, 2 INT

+26

Experimental

Chris JohnsonMIA · CB

2 games played. Projected finish: 0.2 sacks · 0.6 defensive interceptions.

Defensive production index: 0.40.

Main forecast factors

games played: raises the model score
passes defended: raises the model score
solo tackles: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

6 tkl, 0 sacks, 0 INT

-8

#11

Experimental

Jaishawn BarhamDAL · LB

2 games played. Projected finish: 1.4 sacks · 0.2 defensive interceptions.

Defensive production index: 1.04.

Main forecast factors

games played: raises the model score
solo tackles: raises the model score
passes defended: lowers the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

7 tkl, 0 sacks, 0 INT · 1 FF

-8

Experimental

Akheem MesidorLAC · LB

2 games played. Projected finish: 3.2 sacks · 0.2 defensive interceptions.

Defensive production index: 0.12.

Main forecast factors

games played: raises the model score
QB hits: raises the model score
solo tackles: lowers the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

1 tkl, 0.5 sacks, 0 INT

+14

#22

Experimental

Eric O'NeillDET · DE

2 games played. Projected finish: 2.9 sacks · 0 defensive interceptions.

Defensive production index: -0.28.

Main forecast factors

games played: raises the model score
DL position: raises the model score
solo tackles: lowers the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

3 tkl, 0 sacks, 0 INT

-9

#42

Experimental

Keionte ScottTB · CB

2 games played. Projected finish: 0.2 sacks · 0.6 defensive interceptions.

Defensive production index: 0.03.

Main forecast factors

solo tackles: raises the model score
games played: raises the model score
QB hits: lowers the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

9 tkl, 0 sacks, 0 INT

#26

Experimental

Malachi LawrenceDAL · LB

2 games played. Projected finish: 1.4 sacks · 0.2 defensive interceptions.

Defensive production index: -0.09.

Main forecast factors

games played: raises the model score
QB hits: raises the model score
passes defended: lowers the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

3 tkl, 0 sacks, 0 INT

#31

Experimental

Caden CurryIND · DE

2 games played. Projected finish: 2.9 sacks · 0 defensive interceptions.

Defensive production index: -0.38.

Main forecast factors

games played: raises the model score
solo tackles: lowers the model score
DL position: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

1 tkl, 0 sacks, 0 INT

-8

#57

Experimental

Davison IgbinosunBUF · CB

2 games played. Projected finish: 0.2 sacks · 0.6 defensive interceptions.

Defensive production index: -0.00.

Main forecast factors

games played: raises the model score
solo tackles: raises the model score
passes defended: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

5 tkl, 0 sacks, 0 INT

+10

#27

Experimental

Aaron HallCAR · DT

2 games played. Projected finish: 1.1 sacks · 0 defensive interceptions.

Defensive production index: -0.20.

Main forecast factors

games played: raises the model score
solo tackles: lowers the model score
DL position: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

1 tkl, 0 sacks, 0 INT

+28

#34

Experimental

Skyler Gill-HowardDET · DT

2 games played. Projected finish: 1.1 sacks · 0 defensive interceptions.

Defensive production index: -0.20.

Main forecast factors

games played: raises the model score
solo tackles: lowers the model score
DL position: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

1 tkl, 0 sacks, 0 INT

+22

#34

Experimental

Keldric FaulkTEN · DE

2 games played. Projected finish: 2.9 sacks · 0 defensive interceptions.

Defensive production index: -0.43.

Main forecast factors

solo tackles: lowers the model score
games played: raises the model score
DL position: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

–

-10

#64

Experimental