The race, week by week

NFL MVP and Awards Tracker

Award forecasts alongside on-field performance. Follow the leaders, see what drives their rankings, and revisit each weekly snapshot.

Updates after completed weekly games

Last updated:

Most Valuable Player

2026 season · Through week 1

Choose a historical snapshot

2026 · W5 2026 · W4 2026 · W3 2026 · W2 2026 · W1 2026 · W0

Forecast leader

Josh Allen

BUF · QB

Historical top-three hit rate

17%

6 retrospective validation seasons at this horizon

Forecast status

Experimental

Win percentages withheld pending validation

Race trajectory

The race chart needs at least two weekly snapshots.

Weekly leaders

Week 1

Josh Allen

BUF

Methodology and validation

Each award has a separate regularized model trained on earlier seasons only. Candidates come from statistics available at the selected cutoff. Missing winners count as misses. The model predicts award winners; it does not estimate ballot share.

Remaining-season player totals shrink toward prior-season rates with a four-game prior. Team records use a beta prior. Coach forecasts compare projected wins with a preseason baseline formed from the prior season record. These projections assume continued availability and do not yet model future injury risk. Full-game production informs the award forecast; competitive-drive EPA is a separate performance measure. Awards do not change team ratings.

Historical results use reconstructed source files and a 24-hour result-availability assumption. Previously inspected years are retrospective validation, not a fresh holdout. CPOY training excludes seasons before the 2024 criteria change.

Winner hit rate: 17%. Winner coverage: 100%. Log loss: 3.82. Brier score: 1.00.

Precise probabilities require at least eight validation seasons, complete winner coverage, better log loss than a uniform baseline, and a leader-confidence gap of at most ten percentage points. Until then, rankings remain experimental.

Sources: nflverse player and schedule data, NFL Record and Fact Book, and NFL Honors results.

Rank	Candidate	Season line	Weekly move	Performance rank	Win probability
1	Josh AllenBUF · QB 1 games played. Projected finish: 4,337.2 passing yards · 28.4 passing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 1.28. Main forecast factors QB position: raises the model score passing yards: raises the model score rushing TDs: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	334 pass yds, 2 TD, 0 INT · 23 rush yds, 2 TD	Unavailable	#9	Experimental
2	Caleb WilliamsCHI · QB 1 games played. Projected finish: 4,097.9 passing yards · 28.7 passing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 2.65. Main forecast factors QB position: raises the model score passing yards: raises the model score passing TDs: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	269 pass yds, 2 TD, 0 INT · 65 rush yds, 2 TD	Unavailable	#2	Experimental
3	Trevor LawrenceJAX · QB 1 games played. Projected finish: 4,046 passing yards · 38.6 passing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 0.65. Main forecast factors QB position: raises the model score passing yards: raises the model score passing TDs: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	245 pass yds, 4 TD, 0 INT · 3 rush yds, 0 TD	Unavailable	#22	Experimental
4	Jaxson DartNYG · QB 1 games played. Projected finish: 3,043.3 passing yards · 26.3 passing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 3.44. Main forecast factors QB position: raises the model score passing yards: raises the model score passing TDs: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	230 pass yds, 3 TD, 0 INT · 54 rush yds, 0 TD	Unavailable	#1	Experimental
5	Jalen HurtsPHI · QB 1 games played. Projected finish: 3,431.8 passing yards · 32.6 passing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 1.05. Main forecast factors QB position: raises the model score passing yards: raises the model score passing TDs: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	203 pass yds, 3 TD, 0 INT · 46 rush yds, 0 TD	Unavailable	#12	Experimental
6	Lamar JacksonBAL · QB 1 games played. Projected finish: 3,870.6 passing yards · 24.9 passing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 1.50. Main forecast factors QB position: raises the model score passing yards: raises the model score passing TDs: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	324 pass yds, 1 TD, 0 INT · 40 rush yds, 1 TD	Unavailable	#6	Experimental
7	Jared GoffDET · QB 1 games played. Projected finish: 4,301.6 passing yards · 34 passing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 0.72. Main forecast factors QB position: raises the model score passing yards: raises the model score passing TDs: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	206 pass yds, 2 TD, 0 INT · 2 rush yds, 0 TD	Unavailable	#19	Experimental
8	Jacoby BrissettARI · QB 1 games played. Projected finish: 4,240.9 passing yards · 25.2 passing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 1.86. Main forecast factors QB position: raises the model score passing yards: raises the model score passing TDs: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	277 pass yds, 1 TD, 0 INT · 14 rush yds, 0 TD	Unavailable	#3	Experimental
9	Patrick MahomesKC · QB 1 games played. Projected finish: 4,052.3 passing yards · 28.5 passing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 0.70. Main forecast factors QB position: raises the model score passing yards: raises the model score interceptions: lowers the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	184 pass yds, 2 TD, 1 INT · 23 rush yds, 1 TD	Unavailable	#20	Experimental
10	Brock PurdySF · QB 1 games played. Projected finish: 3,943 passing yards · 41 passing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 1.48. Main forecast factors QB position: raises the model score passing yards: raises the model score interceptions: lowers the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	205 pass yds, 3 TD, 1 INT · 29 rush yds, 0 TD	Unavailable	#7	Experimental
11	Bryce YoungCAR · QB 1 games played. Projected finish: 3,925 passing yards · 31 passing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 0.62. Main forecast factors QB position: raises the model score passing yards: raises the model score interceptions: lowers the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	361 pass yds, 3 TD, 1 INT · 10 rush yds, 1 TD	Unavailable	#23	Experimental
12	Jayden DanielsWAS · QB 1 games played. Projected finish: 2,996.5 passing yards · 23 passing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 1.25. Main forecast factors QB position: raises the model score passing yards: raises the model score passing TDs: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	164 pass yds, 2 TD, 0 INT · 31 rush yds, 0 TD	Unavailable	#10	Experimental
13	Dak PrescottDAL · QB 1 games played. Projected finish: 4,162.4 passing yards · 31 passing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 1.36. Main forecast factors QB position: raises the model score passing yards: raises the model score interceptions: lowers the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	175 pass yds, 2 TD, 1 INT · 14 rush yds, 0 TD	Unavailable	#8	Experimental
14	C.J. StroudHOU · QB 1 games played. Projected finish: 3,931.1 passing yards · 25.8 passing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 0.72. Main forecast factors QB position: raises the model score passing yards: raises the model score passing TDs: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	274 pass yds, 2 TD, 0 INT · 15 rush yds, 0 TD	Unavailable	#18	Experimental
15	Joe BurrowCIN · QB 1 games played. Projected finish: 3,961.2 passing yards · 31.4 passing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 0.94. Main forecast factors QB position: raises the model score passing yards: raises the model score interceptions: lowers the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	254 pass yds, 1 TD, 1 INT · 20 rush yds, 0 TD	Unavailable	#13	Experimental
16	Jordan LoveGB · QB 1 games played. Projected finish: 4,510.5 passing yards · 28 passing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: -0.34. Main forecast factors QB position: raises the model score passing yards: raises the model score passing TDs: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	387 pass yds, 2 TD, 1 INT	Unavailable	#104	Experimental
17	Aaron RodgersPIT · QB 1 games played. Projected finish: 3,585.8 passing yards · 23.4 passing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: -0.18. Main forecast factors QB position: raises the model score passing yards: raises the model score passing TDs: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	221 pass yds, 1 TD, 0 INT	Unavailable	#98	Experimental
18	Carson WentzMIN · QB 1 games played. Projected finish: 3,671.6 passing yards · 28 passing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 0.44. Main forecast factors QB position: raises the model score passing yards: raises the model score interceptions: lowers the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	133 pass yds, 3 TD, 0 INT	Unavailable	#26	Experimental
19	Baker MayfieldTB · QB 1 games played. Projected finish: 3,687.8 passing yards · 19.6 passing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: -0.84. Main forecast factors QB position: raises the model score passing yards: raises the model score interceptions: lowers the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	216 pass yds, 0 TD, 0 INT · 30 rush yds, 1 TD	Unavailable	#107	Experimental
20	Tyler ShoughNO · QB 1 games played. Projected finish: 4,496.1 passing yards · 24.2 passing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 0.00. Main forecast factors QB position: raises the model score passing yards: raises the model score interceptions: lowers the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	410 pass yds, 3 TD, 2 INT · 8 rush yds, 0 TD	Unavailable	#70	Experimental
21	Derrick HenryBAL · RB 1 games played. Projected finish: 1,805.7 rushing yards · 24.7 rushing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 1.09. Main forecast factors rushing yards: raises the model score rushing TDs: raises the model score RB position: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	144 rush yds, 3 TD · 19 rec yds, 0 TD	Unavailable	#11	Experimental
22	Malik WillisMIA · QB 1 games played. Projected finish: 2,274.4 passing yards · 9.6 passing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: -0.04. Main forecast factors QB position: raises the model score passing yards: raises the model score rushing TDs: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	220 pass yds, 0 TD, 1 INT · 39 rush yds, 1 TD	Unavailable	#90	Experimental
23	Drake MayeNE · QB 1 games played. Projected finish: 4,056 passing yards · 27.5 passing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 1.77. Main forecast factors QB position: raises the model score passing yards: raises the model score interceptions: lowers the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	178 pass yds, 1 TD, 3 INT · 47 rush yds, 0 TD	Unavailable	#4	Experimental
24	Matthew StaffordLA · QB 1 games played. Projected finish: 4,195.1 passing yards · 34.6 passing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: -0.13. Main forecast factors QB position: raises the model score passing yards: raises the model score passing TDs: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	155 pass yds, 0 TD, 1 INT	Unavailable	#96	Experimental
25	Justin HerbertLAC · QB 1 games played. Projected finish: 3,859.4 passing yards · 25 passing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: -0.01. Main forecast factors QB position: raises the model score passing yards: raises the model score interceptions: lowers the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	209 pass yds, 1 TD, 1 INT · 29 rush yds, 0 TD	Unavailable	#79	Experimental

Rank

Candidate

Season line

Weekly move

Performance rank

Win probability

Josh AllenBUF · QB

1 games played. Projected finish: 4,337.2 passing yards · 28.4 passing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 1.28.

Main forecast factors

QB position: raises the model score
passing yards: raises the model score
rushing TDs: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

334 pass yds, 2 TD, 0 INT · 23 rush yds, 2 TD

Unavailable

Experimental

Caleb WilliamsCHI · QB

1 games played. Projected finish: 4,097.9 passing yards · 28.7 passing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 2.65.

Main forecast factors

QB position: raises the model score
passing yards: raises the model score
passing TDs: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

269 pass yds, 2 TD, 0 INT · 65 rush yds, 2 TD

Unavailable

Experimental

Trevor LawrenceJAX · QB

1 games played. Projected finish: 4,046 passing yards · 38.6 passing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 0.65.

Main forecast factors

QB position: raises the model score
passing yards: raises the model score
passing TDs: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

245 pass yds, 4 TD, 0 INT · 3 rush yds, 0 TD

Unavailable

#22

Experimental

Jaxson DartNYG · QB

1 games played. Projected finish: 3,043.3 passing yards · 26.3 passing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 3.44.

Main forecast factors

QB position: raises the model score
passing yards: raises the model score
passing TDs: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

230 pass yds, 3 TD, 0 INT · 54 rush yds, 0 TD

Unavailable

Experimental

Jalen HurtsPHI · QB

1 games played. Projected finish: 3,431.8 passing yards · 32.6 passing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 1.05.

Main forecast factors

QB position: raises the model score
passing yards: raises the model score
passing TDs: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

203 pass yds, 3 TD, 0 INT · 46 rush yds, 0 TD

Unavailable

#12

Experimental

Lamar JacksonBAL · QB

1 games played. Projected finish: 3,870.6 passing yards · 24.9 passing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 1.50.

Main forecast factors

QB position: raises the model score
passing yards: raises the model score
passing TDs: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

324 pass yds, 1 TD, 0 INT · 40 rush yds, 1 TD

Unavailable

Experimental

Jared GoffDET · QB

1 games played. Projected finish: 4,301.6 passing yards · 34 passing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 0.72.

Main forecast factors

QB position: raises the model score
passing yards: raises the model score
passing TDs: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

206 pass yds, 2 TD, 0 INT · 2 rush yds, 0 TD

Unavailable

#19

Experimental

Jacoby BrissettARI · QB

1 games played. Projected finish: 4,240.9 passing yards · 25.2 passing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 1.86.

Main forecast factors

QB position: raises the model score
passing yards: raises the model score
passing TDs: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

277 pass yds, 1 TD, 0 INT · 14 rush yds, 0 TD

Unavailable

Experimental

Patrick MahomesKC · QB

1 games played. Projected finish: 4,052.3 passing yards · 28.5 passing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 0.70.

Main forecast factors

QB position: raises the model score
passing yards: raises the model score
interceptions: lowers the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

184 pass yds, 2 TD, 1 INT · 23 rush yds, 1 TD

Unavailable

#20

Experimental

Brock PurdySF · QB

1 games played. Projected finish: 3,943 passing yards · 41 passing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 1.48.

Main forecast factors

QB position: raises the model score
passing yards: raises the model score
interceptions: lowers the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

205 pass yds, 3 TD, 1 INT · 29 rush yds, 0 TD

Unavailable

Experimental

Bryce YoungCAR · QB

1 games played. Projected finish: 3,925 passing yards · 31 passing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 0.62.

Main forecast factors

QB position: raises the model score
passing yards: raises the model score
interceptions: lowers the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

361 pass yds, 3 TD, 1 INT · 10 rush yds, 1 TD

Unavailable

#23

Experimental

Jayden DanielsWAS · QB

1 games played. Projected finish: 2,996.5 passing yards · 23 passing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 1.25.

Main forecast factors

QB position: raises the model score
passing yards: raises the model score
passing TDs: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

164 pass yds, 2 TD, 0 INT · 31 rush yds, 0 TD

Unavailable

#10

Experimental

Dak PrescottDAL · QB

1 games played. Projected finish: 4,162.4 passing yards · 31 passing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 1.36.

Main forecast factors

QB position: raises the model score
passing yards: raises the model score
interceptions: lowers the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

175 pass yds, 2 TD, 1 INT · 14 rush yds, 0 TD

Unavailable

Experimental

C.J. StroudHOU · QB

1 games played. Projected finish: 3,931.1 passing yards · 25.8 passing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 0.72.

Main forecast factors

QB position: raises the model score
passing yards: raises the model score
passing TDs: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

274 pass yds, 2 TD, 0 INT · 15 rush yds, 0 TD

Unavailable

#18

Experimental

Joe BurrowCIN · QB

1 games played. Projected finish: 3,961.2 passing yards · 31.4 passing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 0.94.

Main forecast factors

QB position: raises the model score
passing yards: raises the model score
interceptions: lowers the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

254 pass yds, 1 TD, 1 INT · 20 rush yds, 0 TD

Unavailable

#13

Experimental

Jordan LoveGB · QB

1 games played. Projected finish: 4,510.5 passing yards · 28 passing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: -0.34.

Main forecast factors

QB position: raises the model score
passing yards: raises the model score
passing TDs: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

387 pass yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

Unavailable

#104

Experimental

Aaron RodgersPIT · QB

1 games played. Projected finish: 3,585.8 passing yards · 23.4 passing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: -0.18.

Main forecast factors

QB position: raises the model score
passing yards: raises the model score
passing TDs: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

221 pass yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

Unavailable

#98

Experimental

Carson WentzMIN · QB

1 games played. Projected finish: 3,671.6 passing yards · 28 passing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 0.44.

Main forecast factors

QB position: raises the model score
passing yards: raises the model score
interceptions: lowers the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

133 pass yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

Unavailable

#26

Experimental

Baker MayfieldTB · QB

1 games played. Projected finish: 3,687.8 passing yards · 19.6 passing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: -0.84.

Main forecast factors

QB position: raises the model score
passing yards: raises the model score
interceptions: lowers the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

216 pass yds, 0 TD, 0 INT · 30 rush yds, 1 TD

Unavailable

#107

Experimental

Tyler ShoughNO · QB

1 games played. Projected finish: 4,496.1 passing yards · 24.2 passing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 0.00.

Main forecast factors

QB position: raises the model score
passing yards: raises the model score
interceptions: lowers the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

410 pass yds, 3 TD, 2 INT · 8 rush yds, 0 TD

Unavailable

#70

Experimental

Derrick HenryBAL · RB

1 games played. Projected finish: 1,805.7 rushing yards · 24.7 rushing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 1.09.

Main forecast factors

rushing yards: raises the model score
rushing TDs: raises the model score
RB position: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

144 rush yds, 3 TD · 19 rec yds, 0 TD

Unavailable

#11

Experimental

Malik WillisMIA · QB

1 games played. Projected finish: 2,274.4 passing yards · 9.6 passing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: -0.04.

Main forecast factors

QB position: raises the model score
passing yards: raises the model score
rushing TDs: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

220 pass yds, 0 TD, 1 INT · 39 rush yds, 1 TD

Unavailable

#90

Experimental

Drake MayeNE · QB

1 games played. Projected finish: 4,056 passing yards · 27.5 passing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 1.77.

Main forecast factors

QB position: raises the model score
passing yards: raises the model score
interceptions: lowers the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

178 pass yds, 1 TD, 3 INT · 47 rush yds, 0 TD

Unavailable

Experimental

Matthew StaffordLA · QB

1 games played. Projected finish: 4,195.1 passing yards · 34.6 passing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: -0.13.

Main forecast factors

QB position: raises the model score
passing yards: raises the model score
passing TDs: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

155 pass yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

Unavailable

#96

Experimental

Justin HerbertLAC · QB

1 games played. Projected finish: 3,859.4 passing yards · 25 passing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: -0.01.

Main forecast factors

QB position: raises the model score
passing yards: raises the model score
interceptions: lowers the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

209 pass yds, 1 TD, 1 INT · 29 rush yds, 0 TD

Unavailable

#79

Experimental