The race, week by week

NFL MVP and Awards Tracker

Award forecasts alongside on-field performance. Follow the leaders, see what drives their rankings, and revisit each weekly snapshot.

Updates after completed weekly games

Last updated:

Most Valuable Player

2026 season · Through week 2

Choose a historical snapshot

2026 · W5 2026 · W4 2026 · W3 2026 · W2 2026 · W1 2026 · W0

Forecast leader

Josh Allen

BUF · QB

Historical top-three hit rate

33%

6 retrospective validation seasons at this horizon

Forecast status

Experimental

Win percentages withheld pending validation

Race trajectory

Predicted rank by weekly snapshot for the current top 8. Each point is what the board said after that week, not a recomputation; weeks ranked below 25 run off the bottom.

Weekly leaders

Week 1

Josh Allen

BUF

Week 2

Josh Allen

BUF

Methodology and validation

Each award has a separate regularized model trained on earlier seasons only. Candidates come from statistics available at the selected cutoff. Missing winners count as misses. The model predicts award winners; it does not estimate ballot share.

Remaining-season player totals shrink toward prior-season rates with a four-game prior. Team records use a beta prior. Coach forecasts compare projected wins with a preseason baseline formed from the prior season record. These projections assume continued availability and do not yet model future injury risk. Full-game production informs the award forecast; competitive-drive EPA is a separate performance measure. Awards do not change team ratings.

Historical results use reconstructed source files and a 24-hour result-availability assumption. Previously inspected years are retrospective validation, not a fresh holdout. CPOY training excludes seasons before the 2024 criteria change.

Winner hit rate: 33%. Winner coverage: 100%. Log loss: 3.28. Brier score: 0.99.

Precise probabilities require at least eight validation seasons, complete winner coverage, better log loss than a uniform baseline, and a leader-confidence gap of at most ten percentage points. Until then, rankings remain experimental.

Sources: nflverse player and schedule data, NFL Record and Fact Book, and NFL Honors results.

Rank	Candidate	Season line	Weekly move	Performance rank	Win probability
1	Josh AllenBUF · QB 2 games played. Projected finish: 4,329.5 passing yards · 33.1 passing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 6.83. Main forecast factors QB position: raises the model score passing yards: raises the model score rushing yards: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	582 pass yds, 5 TD, 0 INT · 92 rush yds, 4 TD	0	#1	Experimental
2	Patrick MahomesKC · QB 2 games played. Projected finish: 4,543.1 passing yards · 33.2 passing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 3.32. Main forecast factors QB position: raises the model score passing yards: raises the model score passing TDs: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	566 pass yds, 5 TD, 1 INT · 40 rush yds, 1 TD	+7	#8	Experimental
3	Brock PurdySF · QB 2 games played. Projected finish: 4,129.8 passing yards · 39.7 passing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 4.16. Main forecast factors QB position: raises the model score passing yards: raises the model score passing TDs: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	492 pass yds, 5 TD, 1 INT · 59 rush yds, 1 TD	+7	#5	Experimental
4	Jalen HurtsPHI · QB 2 games played. Projected finish: 3,649.5 passing yards · 33.1 passing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 2.74. Main forecast factors QB position: raises the model score passing yards: raises the model score passing TDs: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	467 pass yds, 5 TD, 2 INT · 62 rush yds, 0 TD	+1	#11	Experimental
5	Jared GoffDET · QB 2 games played. Projected finish: 4,550.2 passing yards · 41 passing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: -0.11. Main forecast factors QB position: raises the model score passing yards: raises the model score passing TDs: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	533 pass yds, 6 TD, 0 INT · 9 rush yds, 0 TD	+2	#295	Experimental
6	Dak PrescottDAL · QB 2 games played. Projected finish: 4,266.7 passing yards · 38.7 passing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 4.19. Main forecast factors QB position: raises the model score passing yards: raises the model score passing TDs: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	454 pass yds, 6 TD, 1 INT · 40 rush yds, 0 TD	+7	#4	Experimental
7	Caleb WilliamsCHI · QB 2 games played. Projected finish: 3,743.3 passing yards · 22.9 passing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 4.22. Main forecast factors QB position: raises the model score passing yards: raises the model score rushing yards: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	407 pass yds, 2 TD, 1 INT · 107 rush yds, 2 TD	-5	#3	Experimental
8	Joe BurrowCIN · QB 2 games played. Projected finish: 3,874.8 passing yards · 31.8 passing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 0.82. Main forecast factors QB position: raises the model score passing yards: raises the model score passing TDs: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	461 pass yds, 3 TD, 1 INT · 19 rush yds, 0 TD	+7	#33	Experimental
9	Lamar JacksonBAL · QB 2 games played. Projected finish: 3,917.3 passing yards · 23.2 passing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 3.31. Main forecast factors QB position: raises the model score passing yards: raises the model score rushing yards: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	559 pass yds, 2 TD, 1 INT · 74 rush yds, 1 TD	-3	#9	Experimental
10	Jaxson DartNYG · QB 2 games played. Projected finish: 2,497.9 passing yards · 21.2 passing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 3.15. Main forecast factors QB position: raises the model score passing yards: raises the model score rushing yards: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	250 pass yds, 3 TD, 0 INT · 54 rush yds, 0 TD	-6	#10	Experimental
11	Bryce YoungCAR · QB 2 games played. Projected finish: 4,149.9 passing yards · 35.4 passing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 1.56. Main forecast factors QB position: raises the model score passing yards: raises the model score passing TDs: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	648 pass yds, 6 TD, 1 INT · 16 rush yds, 1 TD	0	#18	Experimental
12	Trevor LawrenceJAX · QB 2 games played. Projected finish: 3,876.1 passing yards · 31.1 passing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 1.16. Main forecast factors QB position: raises the model score passing yards: raises the model score passing TDs: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	434 pass yds, 4 TD, 1 INT · 9 rush yds, 0 TD	-9	#23	Experimental
13	Matthew StaffordLA · QB 2 games played. Projected finish: 4,455.8 passing yards · 41.1 passing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 0.50. Main forecast factors QB position: raises the model score passing yards: raises the model score passing TDs: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	482 pass yds, 4 TD, 2 INT	+11	#40	Experimental
14	Carson WentzMIN · QB 2 games played. Projected finish: 3,398 passing yards · 22.5 passing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 0.17. Main forecast factors QB position: raises the model score passing yards: raises the model score interceptions: lowers the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	276 pass yds, 3 TD, 0 INT · 5 rush yds, 0 TD	+4	#61	Experimental
15	Jordan LoveGB · QB 2 games played. Projected finish: 4,116 passing yards · 29.3 passing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: -1.12. Main forecast factors QB position: raises the model score passing yards: raises the model score passing TDs: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	532 pass yds, 4 TD, 1 INT	+1	#345	Experimental
16	Tyler ShoughNO · QB 2 games played. Projected finish: 4,484.3 passing yards · 23.1 passing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 1.11. Main forecast factors QB position: raises the model score passing yards: raises the model score interceptions: lowers the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	662 pass yds, 4 TD, 2 INT · 31 rush yds, 1 TD	+4	#24	Experimental
17	Jayden DanielsWAS · QB 2 games played. Projected finish: 2,712.9 passing yards · 21.9 passing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 1.91. Main forecast factors QB position: raises the model score passing yards: raises the model score rushing yards: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	260 pass yds, 3 TD, 0 INT · 100 rush yds, 0 TD	-5	#15	Experimental
18	Deshaun WatsonCLE · QB 2 games played. Projected finish: 3,285.3 passing yards · 22.4 passing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 0.33. Main forecast factors QB position: raises the model score passing yards: raises the model score interceptions: lowers the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	443 pass yds, 3 TD, 1 INT · 60 rush yds, 0 TD	+8	#48	Experimental
19	Drew LockSEA · QB 2 games played. Projected finish: 1,527 passing yards · 14 passing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 2.39. Main forecast factors QB position: raises the model score passing yards: raises the model score projected team wins: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	422 pass yds, 4 TD, 0 INT · 13 rush yds, 0 TD	+19	#13	Experimental
20	Jacoby BrissettARI · QB 2 games played. Projected finish: 3,706.3 passing yards · 23.4 passing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 1.69. Main forecast factors QB position: raises the model score passing yards: raises the model score interceptions: lowers the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	372 pass yds, 2 TD, 1 INT · 21 rush yds, 0 TD	-12	#17	Experimental
21	C.J. StroudHOU · QB 2 games played. Projected finish: 4,366.6 passing yards · 20.6 passing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 0.43. Main forecast factors QB position: raises the model score passing yards: raises the model score passing TDs: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	627 pass yds, 2 TD, 0 INT · 44 rush yds, 0 TD	-7	#41	Experimental
22	Kenneth Walker IIIKC · RB 2 games played. Projected finish: 1,619.1 rushing yards · 6.4 rushing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 5.88. Main forecast factors rushing yards: raises the model score RB position: raises the model score projected team wins: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	290 rush yds, 1 TD · 79 rec yds, 1 TD	+17	#2	Experimental
23	James CookBUF · RB 2 games played. Projected finish: 1,625.5 rushing yards · 10.6 rushing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 2.72. Main forecast factors rushing yards: raises the model score RB position: raises the model score projected team wins: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	192 rush yds, 1 TD · 16 rec yds, 0 TD	+17	#12	Experimental
24	Kirk CousinsLV · QB 2 games played. Projected finish: 3,166.5 passing yards · 31 passing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 1.06. Main forecast factors QB position: raises the model score passing yards: raises the model score interceptions: lowers the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	413 pass yds, 6 TD, 3 INT	+10	#27	Experimental
25	Drake MayeNE · QB 2 games played. Projected finish: 3,935.7 passing yards · 21.7 passing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 1.41. Main forecast factors QB position: raises the model score passing yards: raises the model score interceptions: lowers the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	386 pass yds, 1 TD, 4 INT · 64 rush yds, 0 TD	-2	#20	Experimental

Rank

Candidate

Season line

Weekly move

Performance rank

Win probability

Josh AllenBUF · QB

2 games played. Projected finish: 4,329.5 passing yards · 33.1 passing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 6.83.

Main forecast factors

QB position: raises the model score
passing yards: raises the model score
rushing yards: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

582 pass yds, 5 TD, 0 INT · 92 rush yds, 4 TD

Experimental

Patrick MahomesKC · QB

2 games played. Projected finish: 4,543.1 passing yards · 33.2 passing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 3.32.

Main forecast factors

QB position: raises the model score
passing yards: raises the model score
passing TDs: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

566 pass yds, 5 TD, 1 INT · 40 rush yds, 1 TD

Experimental

Brock PurdySF · QB

2 games played. Projected finish: 4,129.8 passing yards · 39.7 passing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 4.16.

Main forecast factors

QB position: raises the model score
passing yards: raises the model score
passing TDs: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

492 pass yds, 5 TD, 1 INT · 59 rush yds, 1 TD

Experimental

Jalen HurtsPHI · QB

2 games played. Projected finish: 3,649.5 passing yards · 33.1 passing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 2.74.

Main forecast factors

QB position: raises the model score
passing yards: raises the model score
passing TDs: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

467 pass yds, 5 TD, 2 INT · 62 rush yds, 0 TD

#11

Experimental

Jared GoffDET · QB

2 games played. Projected finish: 4,550.2 passing yards · 41 passing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: -0.11.

Main forecast factors

QB position: raises the model score
passing yards: raises the model score
passing TDs: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

533 pass yds, 6 TD, 0 INT · 9 rush yds, 0 TD

#295

Experimental

Dak PrescottDAL · QB

2 games played. Projected finish: 4,266.7 passing yards · 38.7 passing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 4.19.

Main forecast factors

QB position: raises the model score
passing yards: raises the model score
passing TDs: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

454 pass yds, 6 TD, 1 INT · 40 rush yds, 0 TD

Experimental

Caleb WilliamsCHI · QB

2 games played. Projected finish: 3,743.3 passing yards · 22.9 passing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 4.22.

Main forecast factors

QB position: raises the model score
passing yards: raises the model score
rushing yards: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

407 pass yds, 2 TD, 1 INT · 107 rush yds, 2 TD

-5

Experimental

Joe BurrowCIN · QB

2 games played. Projected finish: 3,874.8 passing yards · 31.8 passing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 0.82.

Main forecast factors

QB position: raises the model score
passing yards: raises the model score
passing TDs: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

461 pass yds, 3 TD, 1 INT · 19 rush yds, 0 TD

#33

Experimental

Lamar JacksonBAL · QB

2 games played. Projected finish: 3,917.3 passing yards · 23.2 passing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 3.31.

Main forecast factors

QB position: raises the model score
passing yards: raises the model score
rushing yards: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

559 pass yds, 2 TD, 1 INT · 74 rush yds, 1 TD

-3

Experimental

Jaxson DartNYG · QB

2 games played. Projected finish: 2,497.9 passing yards · 21.2 passing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 3.15.

Main forecast factors

QB position: raises the model score
passing yards: raises the model score
rushing yards: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

250 pass yds, 3 TD, 0 INT · 54 rush yds, 0 TD

-6

#10

Experimental

Bryce YoungCAR · QB

2 games played. Projected finish: 4,149.9 passing yards · 35.4 passing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 1.56.

Main forecast factors

QB position: raises the model score
passing yards: raises the model score
passing TDs: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

648 pass yds, 6 TD, 1 INT · 16 rush yds, 1 TD

#18

Experimental

Trevor LawrenceJAX · QB

2 games played. Projected finish: 3,876.1 passing yards · 31.1 passing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 1.16.

Main forecast factors

QB position: raises the model score
passing yards: raises the model score
passing TDs: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

434 pass yds, 4 TD, 1 INT · 9 rush yds, 0 TD

-9

#23

Experimental

Matthew StaffordLA · QB

2 games played. Projected finish: 4,455.8 passing yards · 41.1 passing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 0.50.

Main forecast factors

QB position: raises the model score
passing yards: raises the model score
passing TDs: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

482 pass yds, 4 TD, 2 INT

+11

#40

Experimental

Carson WentzMIN · QB

2 games played. Projected finish: 3,398 passing yards · 22.5 passing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 0.17.

Main forecast factors

QB position: raises the model score
passing yards: raises the model score
interceptions: lowers the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

276 pass yds, 3 TD, 0 INT · 5 rush yds, 0 TD

#61

Experimental

Jordan LoveGB · QB

2 games played. Projected finish: 4,116 passing yards · 29.3 passing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: -1.12.

Main forecast factors

QB position: raises the model score
passing yards: raises the model score
passing TDs: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

532 pass yds, 4 TD, 1 INT

#345

Experimental

Tyler ShoughNO · QB

2 games played. Projected finish: 4,484.3 passing yards · 23.1 passing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 1.11.

Main forecast factors

QB position: raises the model score
passing yards: raises the model score
interceptions: lowers the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

662 pass yds, 4 TD, 2 INT · 31 rush yds, 1 TD

#24

Experimental

Jayden DanielsWAS · QB

2 games played. Projected finish: 2,712.9 passing yards · 21.9 passing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 1.91.

Main forecast factors

QB position: raises the model score
passing yards: raises the model score
rushing yards: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

260 pass yds, 3 TD, 0 INT · 100 rush yds, 0 TD

-5

#15

Experimental

Deshaun WatsonCLE · QB

2 games played. Projected finish: 3,285.3 passing yards · 22.4 passing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 0.33.

Main forecast factors

QB position: raises the model score
passing yards: raises the model score
interceptions: lowers the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

443 pass yds, 3 TD, 1 INT · 60 rush yds, 0 TD

#48

Experimental

Drew LockSEA · QB

2 games played. Projected finish: 1,527 passing yards · 14 passing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 2.39.

Main forecast factors

QB position: raises the model score
passing yards: raises the model score
projected team wins: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

422 pass yds, 4 TD, 0 INT · 13 rush yds, 0 TD

+19

#13

Experimental

Jacoby BrissettARI · QB

2 games played. Projected finish: 3,706.3 passing yards · 23.4 passing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 1.69.

Main forecast factors

QB position: raises the model score
passing yards: raises the model score
interceptions: lowers the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

372 pass yds, 2 TD, 1 INT · 21 rush yds, 0 TD

-12

#17

Experimental

C.J. StroudHOU · QB

2 games played. Projected finish: 4,366.6 passing yards · 20.6 passing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 0.43.

Main forecast factors

QB position: raises the model score
passing yards: raises the model score
passing TDs: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

627 pass yds, 2 TD, 0 INT · 44 rush yds, 0 TD

-7

#41

Experimental

Kenneth Walker IIIKC · RB

2 games played. Projected finish: 1,619.1 rushing yards · 6.4 rushing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 5.88.

Main forecast factors

rushing yards: raises the model score
RB position: raises the model score
projected team wins: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

290 rush yds, 1 TD · 79 rec yds, 1 TD

+17

Experimental

James CookBUF · RB

2 games played. Projected finish: 1,625.5 rushing yards · 10.6 rushing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 2.72.

Main forecast factors

rushing yards: raises the model score
RB position: raises the model score
projected team wins: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

192 rush yds, 1 TD · 16 rec yds, 0 TD

+17

#12

Experimental

Kirk CousinsLV · QB

2 games played. Projected finish: 3,166.5 passing yards · 31 passing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 1.06.

Main forecast factors

QB position: raises the model score
passing yards: raises the model score
interceptions: lowers the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

413 pass yds, 6 TD, 3 INT

+10

#27

Experimental

Drake MayeNE · QB

2 games played. Projected finish: 3,935.7 passing yards · 21.7 passing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 1.41.

Main forecast factors

QB position: raises the model score
passing yards: raises the model score
interceptions: lowers the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

386 pass yds, 1 TD, 4 INT · 64 rush yds, 0 TD

-2

#20

Experimental