The race, week by week

NFL MVP and Awards Tracker

Award forecasts alongside on-field performance. Follow the leaders, see what drives their rankings, and revisit each weekly snapshot.

Updates after completed weekly games

Last updated:

Most Valuable Player

2026 season · Through week 4

Choose a historical snapshot

2026 · W5 2026 · W4 2026 · W3 2026 · W2 2026 · W1 2026 · W0

Forecast leader

Brock Purdy

SF · QB

Historical top-three hit rate

50%

6 retrospective validation seasons at this horizon

Forecast status

Experimental

Win percentages withheld pending validation

Race trajectory

Predicted rank by weekly snapshot for the current top 8. Each point is what the board said after that week, not a recomputation; weeks ranked below 25 run off the bottom.

Weekly leaders

Week 1

Josh Allen

BUF

Week 2

Josh Allen

BUF

Week 3

Brock Purdy

Week 4

Brock Purdy

Methodology and validation

Each award has a separate regularized model trained on earlier seasons only. Candidates come from statistics available at the selected cutoff. Missing winners count as misses. The model predicts award winners; it does not estimate ballot share.

Remaining-season player totals shrink toward prior-season rates with a four-game prior. Team records use a beta prior. Coach forecasts compare projected wins with a preseason baseline formed from the prior season record. These projections assume continued availability and do not yet model future injury risk. Full-game production informs the award forecast; competitive-drive EPA is a separate performance measure. Awards do not change team ratings.

Historical results use reconstructed source files and a 24-hour result-availability assumption. Previously inspected years are retrospective validation, not a fresh holdout. CPOY training excludes seasons before the 2024 criteria change.

Winner hit rate: 17%. Winner coverage: 100%. Log loss: 2.82. Brier score: 0.95.

Precise probabilities require at least eight validation seasons, complete winner coverage, better log loss than a uniform baseline, and a leader-confidence gap of at most ten percentage points. Until then, rankings remain experimental.

Sources: nflverse player and schedule data, NFL Record and Fact Book, and NFL Honors results.

Rank	Candidate	Season line	Weekly move	Performance rank	Win probability
1	Brock PurdySF · QB 4 games played. Projected finish: 4,208.4 passing yards · 43.3 passing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 14.15. Main forecast factors passing TDs: raises the model score QB position: raises the model score interceptions: lowers the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	1,007 pass yds, 11 TD, 1 INT · 122 rush yds, 1 TD	0	#1	Experimental
2	Jared GoffDET · QB 4 games played. Projected finish: 4,931.8 passing yards · 36.6 passing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 5.01. Main forecast factors passing TDs: raises the model score QB position: raises the model score games remaining: lowers the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	1,214 pass yds, 9 TD, 0 INT · 15 rush yds, 0 TD	0	#16	Experimental
3	Patrick MahomesKC · QB 4 games played. Projected finish: 4,387.5 passing yards · 33.8 passing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 7.60. Main forecast factors passing TDs: raises the model score QB position: raises the model score interceptions: lowers the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	1,037 pass yds, 9 TD, 2 INT · 41 rush yds, 1 TD	+1	#9	Experimental
4	Lamar JacksonBAL · QB 4 games played. Projected finish: 3,812.9 passing yards · 26.3 passing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 10.24. Main forecast factors QB position: raises the model score passing TDs: raises the model score interceptions: lowers the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	967 pass yds, 6 TD, 1 INT · 144 rush yds, 1 TD	+1	#5	Experimental
5	Josh AllenBUF · QB 4 games played. Projected finish: 4,217.5 passing yards · 25.9 passing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 12.09. Main forecast factors QB position: raises the model score passing TDs: raises the model score interceptions: lowers the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	1,039 pass yds, 6 TD, 3 INT · 118 rush yds, 7 TD · 1 rec yds, 0 TD	-2	#2	Experimental
6	Dak PrescottDAL · QB 4 games played. Projected finish: 4,536.1 passing yards · 32.5 passing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 11.26. Main forecast factors passing TDs: raises the model score QB position: raises the model score interceptions: lowers the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	1,065 pass yds, 8 TD, 1 INT · 66 rush yds, 0 TD	+1	#3	Experimental
7	Trevor LawrenceJAX · QB 4 games played. Projected finish: 3,745 passing yards · 32.1 passing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 5.12. Main forecast factors passing TDs: raises the model score QB position: raises the model score interceptions: lowers the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	843 pass yds, 8 TD, 2 INT · 34 rush yds, 0 TD	+2	#15	Experimental
8	Bryce YoungCAR · QB 4 games played. Projected finish: 4,551.7 passing yards · 33 passing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 6.01. Main forecast factors passing TDs: raises the model score QB position: raises the model score interceptions: lowers the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	1,268 pass yds, 9 TD, 2 INT · 19 rush yds, 1 TD	+10	#13	Experimental
9	Kenneth Walker IIIKC · RB 4 games played. Projected finish: 1,802.3 rushing yards · 12.4 rushing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 10.63. Main forecast factors rushing yards: raises the model score RB position: raises the model score games remaining: lowers the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	537 rush yds, 4 TD · 84 rec yds, 2 TD	+12	#4	Experimental
10	Jalen HurtsPHI · QB 4 games played. Projected finish: 3,181.4 passing yards · 28.5 passing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 0.00. Main forecast factors QB position: raises the model score passing TDs: raises the model score interceptions: lowers the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	713 pass yds, 7 TD, 3 INT · 105 rush yds, 1 TD	+2	#248	Experimental
11	Jaxson DartNYG · QB 2 games played. Projected finish: 2,198.1 passing yards · 18.8 passing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 3.08. Main forecast factors QB position: raises the model score passing TDs: raises the model score rushing yards: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	250 pass yds, 3 TD, 0 INT · 54 rush yds, 0 TD	0	#30	Experimental
12	Deshaun WatsonCLE · QB 4 games played. Projected finish: 3,372.1 passing yards · 23.2 passing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 2.22. Main forecast factors QB position: raises the model score passing TDs: raises the model score interceptions: lowers the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	855 pass yds, 6 TD, 2 INT · 127 rush yds, 0 TD	-4	#36	Experimental
13	Derrick HenryBAL · RB 4 games played. Projected finish: 1,591.6 rushing yards · 24.5 rushing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 4.91. Main forecast factors rushing yards: raises the model score rushing TDs: raises the model score RB position: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	374 rush yds, 7 TD · 44 rec yds, 0 TD	+13	#17	Experimental
14	Caleb WilliamsCHI · QB 2 games played. Projected finish: 3,298.5 passing yards · 20.1 passing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 4.00. Main forecast factors QB position: raises the model score passing TDs: raises the model score interceptions: lowers the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	407 pass yds, 2 TD, 1 INT · 107 rush yds, 2 TD	-4	#21	Experimental
15	Kirk CousinsLV · QB 4 games played. Projected finish: 3,811.9 passing yards · 35.4 passing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 6.35. Main forecast factors passing TDs: raises the model score QB position: raises the model score interceptions: lowers the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	1,026 pass yds, 11 TD, 4 INT	-1	#11	Experimental
16	Joe BurrowCIN · QB 4 games played. Projected finish: 4,543.7 passing yards · 32.2 passing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 7.45. Main forecast factors passing TDs: raises the model score QB position: raises the model score interceptions: lowers the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	1,171 pass yds, 7 TD, 3 INT · 38 rush yds, 1 TD	-10	#10	Experimental
17	James CookBUF · RB 4 games played. Projected finish: 1,724.9 rushing yards · 12.5 rushing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 7.70. Main forecast factors rushing yards: raises the model score RB position: raises the model score games remaining: lowers the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	421 rush yds, 3 TD · 24 rec yds, 0 TD	-4	#8	Experimental
18	Jordan LoveGB · QB 4 games played. Projected finish: 4,197.7 passing yards · 31 passing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 0.36. Main forecast factors passing TDs: raises the model score QB position: raises the model score interceptions: lowers the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	1,041 pass yds, 8 TD, 3 INT	+1	#86	Experimental
19	Bijan RobinsonATL · RB 4 games played. Projected finish: 1,861.9 rushing yards · 13.2 rushing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 9.39. Main forecast factors rushing yards: raises the model score RB position: raises the model score games remaining: lowers the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	494 rush yds, 4 TD · 120 rec yds, 1 TD	+13	#6	Experimental
20	Tyler ShoughNO · QB 4 games played. Projected finish: 4,566.6 passing yards · 29.5 passing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: -0.32. Main forecast factors passing TDs: raises the model score QB position: raises the model score interceptions: lowers the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	1,203 pass yds, 9 TD, 3 INT · 72 rush yds, 1 TD	-4	#392	Experimental
21	C.J. StroudHOU · QB 4 games played. Projected finish: 4,407 passing yards · 22 passing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 3.58. Main forecast factors QB position: raises the model score passing TDs: raises the model score games remaining: lowers the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	1,141 pass yds, 5 TD, 0 INT · 66 rush yds, 0 TD	-1	#24	Experimental
22	Jonathan TaylorIND · RB 4 games played. Projected finish: 1,532.7 rushing yards · 22.6 rushing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 6.16. Main forecast factors rushing yards: raises the model score rushing TDs: raises the model score RB position: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	353 rush yds, 6 TD · 69 rec yds, 0 TD	+20	#12	Experimental
23	Jayden DanielsWAS · QB 2 games played. Projected finish: 2,385.8 passing yards · 19.4 passing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 1.75. Main forecast factors QB position: raises the model score passing TDs: raises the model score rushing yards: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	260 pass yds, 3 TD, 0 INT · 100 rush yds, 0 TD	-8	#39	Experimental
24	Drew LockSEA · QB 2 games played. Projected finish: 1,379.7 passing yards · 12.7 passing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 2.32. Main forecast factors QB position: raises the model score passing TDs: raises the model score games remaining: lowers the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	422 pass yds, 4 TD, 0 INT · 13 rush yds, 0 TD	+4	#35	Experimental
25	Christian McCaffreySF · RB 4 games played. Projected finish: 1,031.8 rushing yards · 14.3 rushing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 3.23. Main forecast factors rushing yards: raises the model score RB position: raises the model score rushing TDs: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	218 rush yds, 4 TD · 122 rec yds, 0 TD	+8	#29	Experimental

Rank

Candidate

Season line

Weekly move

Performance rank

Win probability

Brock PurdySF · QB

4 games played. Projected finish: 4,208.4 passing yards · 43.3 passing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 14.15.

Main forecast factors

passing TDs: raises the model score
QB position: raises the model score
interceptions: lowers the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

1,007 pass yds, 11 TD, 1 INT · 122 rush yds, 1 TD

Experimental

Jared GoffDET · QB

4 games played. Projected finish: 4,931.8 passing yards · 36.6 passing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 5.01.

Main forecast factors

passing TDs: raises the model score
QB position: raises the model score
games remaining: lowers the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

1,214 pass yds, 9 TD, 0 INT · 15 rush yds, 0 TD

#16

Experimental

Patrick MahomesKC · QB

4 games played. Projected finish: 4,387.5 passing yards · 33.8 passing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 7.60.

Main forecast factors

passing TDs: raises the model score
QB position: raises the model score
interceptions: lowers the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

1,037 pass yds, 9 TD, 2 INT · 41 rush yds, 1 TD

Experimental

Lamar JacksonBAL · QB

4 games played. Projected finish: 3,812.9 passing yards · 26.3 passing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 10.24.

Main forecast factors

QB position: raises the model score
passing TDs: raises the model score
interceptions: lowers the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

967 pass yds, 6 TD, 1 INT · 144 rush yds, 1 TD

Experimental

Josh AllenBUF · QB

4 games played. Projected finish: 4,217.5 passing yards · 25.9 passing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 12.09.

Main forecast factors

QB position: raises the model score
passing TDs: raises the model score
interceptions: lowers the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

1,039 pass yds, 6 TD, 3 INT · 118 rush yds, 7 TD · 1 rec yds, 0 TD

-2

Experimental

Dak PrescottDAL · QB

4 games played. Projected finish: 4,536.1 passing yards · 32.5 passing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 11.26.

Main forecast factors

passing TDs: raises the model score
QB position: raises the model score
interceptions: lowers the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

1,065 pass yds, 8 TD, 1 INT · 66 rush yds, 0 TD

Experimental

Trevor LawrenceJAX · QB

4 games played. Projected finish: 3,745 passing yards · 32.1 passing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 5.12.

Main forecast factors

passing TDs: raises the model score
QB position: raises the model score
interceptions: lowers the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

843 pass yds, 8 TD, 2 INT · 34 rush yds, 0 TD

#15

Experimental

Bryce YoungCAR · QB

4 games played. Projected finish: 4,551.7 passing yards · 33 passing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 6.01.

Main forecast factors

passing TDs: raises the model score
QB position: raises the model score
interceptions: lowers the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

1,268 pass yds, 9 TD, 2 INT · 19 rush yds, 1 TD

+10

#13

Experimental

Kenneth Walker IIIKC · RB

4 games played. Projected finish: 1,802.3 rushing yards · 12.4 rushing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 10.63.

Main forecast factors

rushing yards: raises the model score
RB position: raises the model score
games remaining: lowers the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

537 rush yds, 4 TD · 84 rec yds, 2 TD

+12

Experimental

Jalen HurtsPHI · QB

4 games played. Projected finish: 3,181.4 passing yards · 28.5 passing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 0.00.

Main forecast factors

QB position: raises the model score
passing TDs: raises the model score
interceptions: lowers the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

713 pass yds, 7 TD, 3 INT · 105 rush yds, 1 TD

#248

Experimental

Jaxson DartNYG · QB

2 games played. Projected finish: 2,198.1 passing yards · 18.8 passing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 3.08.

Main forecast factors

QB position: raises the model score
passing TDs: raises the model score
rushing yards: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

250 pass yds, 3 TD, 0 INT · 54 rush yds, 0 TD

#30

Experimental

Deshaun WatsonCLE · QB

4 games played. Projected finish: 3,372.1 passing yards · 23.2 passing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 2.22.

Main forecast factors

QB position: raises the model score
passing TDs: raises the model score
interceptions: lowers the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

855 pass yds, 6 TD, 2 INT · 127 rush yds, 0 TD

-4

#36

Experimental

Derrick HenryBAL · RB

4 games played. Projected finish: 1,591.6 rushing yards · 24.5 rushing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 4.91.

Main forecast factors

rushing yards: raises the model score
rushing TDs: raises the model score
RB position: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

374 rush yds, 7 TD · 44 rec yds, 0 TD

+13

#17

Experimental

Caleb WilliamsCHI · QB

2 games played. Projected finish: 3,298.5 passing yards · 20.1 passing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 4.00.

Main forecast factors

QB position: raises the model score
passing TDs: raises the model score
interceptions: lowers the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

407 pass yds, 2 TD, 1 INT · 107 rush yds, 2 TD

-4

#21

Experimental

Kirk CousinsLV · QB

4 games played. Projected finish: 3,811.9 passing yards · 35.4 passing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 6.35.

Main forecast factors

passing TDs: raises the model score
QB position: raises the model score
interceptions: lowers the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

1,026 pass yds, 11 TD, 4 INT

-1

#11

Experimental

Joe BurrowCIN · QB

4 games played. Projected finish: 4,543.7 passing yards · 32.2 passing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 7.45.

Main forecast factors

passing TDs: raises the model score
QB position: raises the model score
interceptions: lowers the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

1,171 pass yds, 7 TD, 3 INT · 38 rush yds, 1 TD

-10

#10

Experimental

James CookBUF · RB

4 games played. Projected finish: 1,724.9 rushing yards · 12.5 rushing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 7.70.

Main forecast factors

rushing yards: raises the model score
RB position: raises the model score
games remaining: lowers the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

421 rush yds, 3 TD · 24 rec yds, 0 TD

-4

Experimental

Jordan LoveGB · QB

4 games played. Projected finish: 4,197.7 passing yards · 31 passing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 0.36.

Main forecast factors

passing TDs: raises the model score
QB position: raises the model score
interceptions: lowers the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

1,041 pass yds, 8 TD, 3 INT

#86

Experimental

Bijan RobinsonATL · RB

4 games played. Projected finish: 1,861.9 rushing yards · 13.2 rushing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 9.39.

Main forecast factors

rushing yards: raises the model score
RB position: raises the model score
games remaining: lowers the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

494 rush yds, 4 TD · 120 rec yds, 1 TD

+13

Experimental

Tyler ShoughNO · QB

4 games played. Projected finish: 4,566.6 passing yards · 29.5 passing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: -0.32.

Main forecast factors

passing TDs: raises the model score
QB position: raises the model score
interceptions: lowers the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

1,203 pass yds, 9 TD, 3 INT · 72 rush yds, 1 TD

-4

#392

Experimental

C.J. StroudHOU · QB

4 games played. Projected finish: 4,407 passing yards · 22 passing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 3.58.

Main forecast factors

QB position: raises the model score
passing TDs: raises the model score
games remaining: lowers the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

1,141 pass yds, 5 TD, 0 INT · 66 rush yds, 0 TD

-1

#24

Experimental

Jonathan TaylorIND · RB

4 games played. Projected finish: 1,532.7 rushing yards · 22.6 rushing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 6.16.

Main forecast factors

rushing yards: raises the model score
rushing TDs: raises the model score
RB position: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

353 rush yds, 6 TD · 69 rec yds, 0 TD

+20

#12

Experimental

Jayden DanielsWAS · QB

2 games played. Projected finish: 2,385.8 passing yards · 19.4 passing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 1.75.

Main forecast factors

QB position: raises the model score
passing TDs: raises the model score
rushing yards: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

260 pass yds, 3 TD, 0 INT · 100 rush yds, 0 TD

-8

#39

Experimental

Drew LockSEA · QB

2 games played. Projected finish: 1,379.7 passing yards · 12.7 passing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 2.32.

Main forecast factors

QB position: raises the model score
passing TDs: raises the model score
games remaining: lowers the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

422 pass yds, 4 TD, 0 INT · 13 rush yds, 0 TD

#35

Experimental

Christian McCaffreySF · RB

4 games played. Projected finish: 1,031.8 rushing yards · 14.3 rushing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 3.23.

Main forecast factors

rushing yards: raises the model score
RB position: raises the model score
rushing TDs: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

218 rush yds, 4 TD · 122 rec yds, 0 TD

#29

Experimental