The race, week by week

NFL MVP and Awards Tracker

Award forecasts alongside on-field performance. Follow the leaders, see what drives their rankings, and revisit each weekly snapshot.

Updates after completed weekly games

Last updated:

Offensive Player of the Year

2026 season · Through week 1

Choose a historical snapshot

2026 · W5 2026 · W4 2026 · W3 2026 · W2 2026 · W1 2026 · W0

Forecast leader

Josh Allen

BUF · QB

Historical top-three hit rate

6 retrospective validation seasons at this horizon

Forecast status

Experimental

Win percentages withheld pending validation

Race trajectory

The race chart needs at least two weekly snapshots.

Weekly leaders

Week 1

Josh Allen

BUF

Methodology and validation

Each award has a separate regularized model trained on earlier seasons only. Candidates come from statistics available at the selected cutoff. Missing winners count as misses. The model predicts award winners; it does not estimate ballot share.

Remaining-season player totals shrink toward prior-season rates with a four-game prior. Team records use a beta prior. Coach forecasts compare projected wins with a preseason baseline formed from the prior season record. These projections assume continued availability and do not yet model future injury risk. Full-game production informs the award forecast; competitive-drive EPA is a separate performance measure. Awards do not change team ratings.

Historical results use reconstructed source files and a 24-hour result-availability assumption. Previously inspected years are retrospective validation, not a fresh holdout. CPOY training excludes seasons before the 2024 criteria change.

Winner hit rate: 0%. Winner coverage: 100%. Log loss: 4.82. Brier score: 1.02.

Precise probabilities require at least eight validation seasons, complete winner coverage, better log loss than a uniform baseline, and a leader-confidence gap of at most ten percentage points. Until then, rankings remain experimental.

Sources: nflverse player and schedule data, NFL Record and Fact Book, and NFL Honors results.

Rank	Candidate	Season line	Weekly move	Performance rank	Win probability
1	Josh AllenBUF · QB 1 games played. Projected finish: 4,337.2 passing yards · 28.4 passing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 1.28. Main forecast factors passing yards: raises the model score receiving yards: lowers the model score rushing TDs: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	334 pass yds, 2 TD, 0 INT · 23 rush yds, 2 TD	Unavailable	#9	Experimental
2	Jahmyr GibbsDET · RB 1 games played. Projected finish: 1,576.1 rushing yards · 18.2 rushing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 0.92. Main forecast factors rushing yards: raises the model score rushing TDs: raises the model score RB position: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	156 rush yds, 2 TD · 30 rec yds, 0 TD	Unavailable	#14	Experimental
3	Derrick HenryBAL · RB 1 games played. Projected finish: 1,805.7 rushing yards · 24.7 rushing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 1.09. Main forecast factors rushing yards: raises the model score rushing TDs: raises the model score receiving yards: lowers the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	144 rush yds, 3 TD · 19 rec yds, 0 TD	Unavailable	#11	Experimental
4	Caleb WilliamsCHI · QB 1 games played. Projected finish: 4,097.9 passing yards · 28.7 passing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 2.65. Main forecast factors passing yards: raises the model score receiving yards: lowers the model score rushing yards: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	269 pass yds, 2 TD, 0 INT · 65 rush yds, 2 TD	Unavailable	#2	Experimental
5	Bijan RobinsonATL · RB 1 games played. Projected finish: 1,461.5 rushing yards · 5.3 rushing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 0.18. Main forecast factors rushing yards: raises the model score receiving yards: raises the model score RB position: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	83 rush yds, 0 TD · 90 rec yds, 1 TD	Unavailable	#38	Experimental
6	Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSEA · WR 1 games played. Projected finish: 1,862.4 receiving yards · 11.7 receiving TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: unavailable. Main forecast factors receiving yards: raises the model score passing yards: lowers the model score projected team wins: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	122 rec yds, 1 TD	Unavailable	Unavailable	Experimental
7	Christian McCaffreySF · RB 1 games played. Projected finish: 1,190.6 rushing yards · 7.5 rushing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 0.21. Main forecast factors rushing yards: raises the model score receiving yards: raises the model score RB position: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	68 rush yds, 0 TD · 20 rec yds, 0 TD	Unavailable	#36	Experimental
8	D'Andre SwiftCHI · RB 1 games played. Projected finish: 1,390.4 rushing yards · 19.8 rushing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 0.84. Main forecast factors rushing yards: raises the model score rushing TDs: raises the model score RB position: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	124 rush yds, 3 TD · 10 rec yds, 0 TD	Unavailable	#15	Experimental
9	Patrick MahomesKC · QB 1 games played. Projected finish: 4,052.3 passing yards · 28.5 passing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 0.70. Main forecast factors passing yards: raises the model score receiving yards: lowers the model score passing TDs: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	184 pass yds, 2 TD, 1 INT · 23 rush yds, 1 TD	Unavailable	#20	Experimental
10	Trevor LawrenceJAX · QB 1 games played. Projected finish: 4,046 passing yards · 38.6 passing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 0.65. Main forecast factors passing yards: raises the model score receiving yards: lowers the model score passing TDs: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	245 pass yds, 4 TD, 0 INT · 3 rush yds, 0 TD	Unavailable	#22	Experimental
11	Jonathan TaylorIND · RB 1 games played. Projected finish: 1,605 rushing yards · 22 rushing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: -0.09. Main forecast factors rushing yards: raises the model score rushing TDs: raises the model score RB position: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	98 rush yds, 2 TD · 23 rec yds, 0 TD	Unavailable	#93	Experimental
12	Zay FlowersBAL · WR 1 games played. Projected finish: 1,541.8 receiving yards · 8 receiving TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: unavailable. Main forecast factors receiving yards: raises the model score offensive efficiency: raises the model score passing yards: lowers the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	150 rec yds, 1 TD	Unavailable	Unavailable	Experimental
13	Lamar JacksonBAL · QB 1 games played. Projected finish: 3,870.6 passing yards · 24.9 passing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 1.50. Main forecast factors passing yards: raises the model score receiving yards: lowers the model score rushing yards: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	324 pass yds, 1 TD, 0 INT · 40 rush yds, 1 TD	Unavailable	#6	Experimental
14	Brock PurdySF · QB 1 games played. Projected finish: 3,943 passing yards · 41 passing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 1.48. Main forecast factors passing yards: raises the model score receiving yards: lowers the model score passing TDs: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	205 pass yds, 3 TD, 1 INT · 29 rush yds, 0 TD	Unavailable	#7	Experimental
15	Kenneth Walker IIIKC · RB 1 games played. Projected finish: 1,499.9 rushing yards · 8 rushing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 1.72. Main forecast factors rushing yards: raises the model score RB position: raises the model score rushing TDs: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	173 rush yds, 1 TD · 18 rec yds, 1 TD	Unavailable	#5	Experimental
16	Jalen HurtsPHI · QB 1 games played. Projected finish: 3,431.8 passing yards · 32.6 passing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 1.05. Main forecast factors passing yards: raises the model score receiving yards: lowers the model score passing TDs: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	203 pass yds, 3 TD, 0 INT · 46 rush yds, 0 TD	Unavailable	#12	Experimental
17	Jaxson DartNYG · QB 1 games played. Projected finish: 3,043.3 passing yards · 26.3 passing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 3.44. Main forecast factors passing yards: raises the model score receiving yards: lowers the model score rushing yards: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	230 pass yds, 3 TD, 0 INT · 54 rush yds, 0 TD	Unavailable	#1	Experimental
18	James CookBUF · RB 1 games played. Projected finish: 1,459.9 rushing yards · 9 rushing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 0.20. Main forecast factors rushing yards: raises the model score RB position: raises the model score rushing TDs: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	57 rush yds, 0 TD · 12 rec yds, 0 TD	Unavailable	#37	Experimental
19	Breece HallNYJ · RB 1 games played. Projected finish: 1,280.4 rushing yards · 7.4 rushing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 0.77. Main forecast factors rushing yards: raises the model score RB position: raises the model score rushing TDs: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	102 rush yds, 1 TD · 16 rec yds, 0 TD	Unavailable	#16	Experimental
20	Jacoby BrissettARI · QB 1 games played. Projected finish: 4,240.9 passing yards · 25.2 passing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 1.86. Main forecast factors passing yards: raises the model score receiving yards: lowers the model score passing TDs: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	277 pass yds, 1 TD, 0 INT · 14 rush yds, 0 TD	Unavailable	#3	Experimental
21	Ashton JeantyLV · RB 1 games played. Projected finish: 1,162.5 rushing yards · 3.8 rushing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 0.74. Main forecast factors rushing yards: raises the model score RB position: raises the model score passing yards: lowers the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	102 rush yds, 0 TD · 45 rec yds, 2 TD	Unavailable	#17	Experimental
22	Chris OlaveNO · WR 1 games played. Projected finish: 1,694.8 receiving yards · 7.2 receiving TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: unavailable. Main forecast factors receiving yards: raises the model score passing yards: lowers the model score rushing yards: lowers the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	182 rec yds, 0 TD	Unavailable	Unavailable	Experimental
23	Jared GoffDET · QB 1 games played. Projected finish: 4,301.6 passing yards · 34 passing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 0.72. Main forecast factors passing yards: raises the model score receiving yards: lowers the model score passing TDs: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	206 pass yds, 2 TD, 0 INT · 2 rush yds, 0 TD	Unavailable	#19	Experimental
24	Puka NacuaLA · WR 1 games played. Projected finish: 1,682.8 receiving yards · 8 receiving TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: unavailable. Main forecast factors receiving yards: raises the model score passing yards: lowers the model score RB position: lowers the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	74 rec yds, 0 TD	Unavailable	Unavailable	Experimental
25	Chase BrownCIN · RB 1 games played. Projected finish: 1,002.5 rushing yards · 8.7 rushing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 0.18. Main forecast factors rushing yards: raises the model score RB position: raises the model score rushing TDs: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	56 rush yds, 1 TD · 22 rec yds, 0 TD	Unavailable	#39	Experimental

Rank

Candidate

Season line

Weekly move

Performance rank

Win probability

Josh AllenBUF · QB

1 games played. Projected finish: 4,337.2 passing yards · 28.4 passing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 1.28.

Main forecast factors

passing yards: raises the model score
receiving yards: lowers the model score
rushing TDs: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

334 pass yds, 2 TD, 0 INT · 23 rush yds, 2 TD

Unavailable

Experimental

Jahmyr GibbsDET · RB

1 games played. Projected finish: 1,576.1 rushing yards · 18.2 rushing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 0.92.

Main forecast factors

rushing yards: raises the model score
rushing TDs: raises the model score
RB position: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

156 rush yds, 2 TD · 30 rec yds, 0 TD

Unavailable

#14

Experimental

Derrick HenryBAL · RB

1 games played. Projected finish: 1,805.7 rushing yards · 24.7 rushing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 1.09.

Main forecast factors

rushing yards: raises the model score
rushing TDs: raises the model score
receiving yards: lowers the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

144 rush yds, 3 TD · 19 rec yds, 0 TD

Unavailable

#11

Experimental

Caleb WilliamsCHI · QB

1 games played. Projected finish: 4,097.9 passing yards · 28.7 passing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 2.65.

Main forecast factors

passing yards: raises the model score
receiving yards: lowers the model score
rushing yards: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

269 pass yds, 2 TD, 0 INT · 65 rush yds, 2 TD

Unavailable

Experimental

Bijan RobinsonATL · RB

1 games played. Projected finish: 1,461.5 rushing yards · 5.3 rushing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 0.18.

Main forecast factors

rushing yards: raises the model score
receiving yards: raises the model score
RB position: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

83 rush yds, 0 TD · 90 rec yds, 1 TD

Unavailable

#38

Experimental

Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSEA · WR

1 games played. Projected finish: 1,862.4 receiving yards · 11.7 receiving TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: unavailable.

Main forecast factors

receiving yards: raises the model score
passing yards: lowers the model score
projected team wins: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

122 rec yds, 1 TD

Unavailable

Experimental

Christian McCaffreySF · RB

1 games played. Projected finish: 1,190.6 rushing yards · 7.5 rushing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 0.21.

Main forecast factors

rushing yards: raises the model score
receiving yards: raises the model score
RB position: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

68 rush yds, 0 TD · 20 rec yds, 0 TD

Unavailable

#36

Experimental

D'Andre SwiftCHI · RB

1 games played. Projected finish: 1,390.4 rushing yards · 19.8 rushing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 0.84.

Main forecast factors

rushing yards: raises the model score
rushing TDs: raises the model score
RB position: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

124 rush yds, 3 TD · 10 rec yds, 0 TD

Unavailable

#15

Experimental

Patrick MahomesKC · QB

1 games played. Projected finish: 4,052.3 passing yards · 28.5 passing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 0.70.

Main forecast factors

passing yards: raises the model score
receiving yards: lowers the model score
passing TDs: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

184 pass yds, 2 TD, 1 INT · 23 rush yds, 1 TD

Unavailable

#20

Experimental

Trevor LawrenceJAX · QB

1 games played. Projected finish: 4,046 passing yards · 38.6 passing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 0.65.

Main forecast factors

passing yards: raises the model score
receiving yards: lowers the model score
passing TDs: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

245 pass yds, 4 TD, 0 INT · 3 rush yds, 0 TD

Unavailable

#22

Experimental

Jonathan TaylorIND · RB

1 games played. Projected finish: 1,605 rushing yards · 22 rushing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: -0.09.

Main forecast factors

rushing yards: raises the model score
rushing TDs: raises the model score
RB position: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

98 rush yds, 2 TD · 23 rec yds, 0 TD

Unavailable

#93

Experimental

Zay FlowersBAL · WR

1 games played. Projected finish: 1,541.8 receiving yards · 8 receiving TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: unavailable.

Main forecast factors

receiving yards: raises the model score
offensive efficiency: raises the model score
passing yards: lowers the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

150 rec yds, 1 TD

Unavailable

Experimental

Lamar JacksonBAL · QB

1 games played. Projected finish: 3,870.6 passing yards · 24.9 passing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 1.50.

Main forecast factors

passing yards: raises the model score
receiving yards: lowers the model score
rushing yards: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

324 pass yds, 1 TD, 0 INT · 40 rush yds, 1 TD

Unavailable

Experimental

Brock PurdySF · QB

1 games played. Projected finish: 3,943 passing yards · 41 passing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 1.48.

Main forecast factors

passing yards: raises the model score
receiving yards: lowers the model score
passing TDs: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

205 pass yds, 3 TD, 1 INT · 29 rush yds, 0 TD

Unavailable

Experimental

Kenneth Walker IIIKC · RB

1 games played. Projected finish: 1,499.9 rushing yards · 8 rushing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 1.72.

Main forecast factors

rushing yards: raises the model score
RB position: raises the model score
rushing TDs: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

173 rush yds, 1 TD · 18 rec yds, 1 TD

Unavailable

Experimental

Jalen HurtsPHI · QB

1 games played. Projected finish: 3,431.8 passing yards · 32.6 passing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 1.05.

Main forecast factors

passing yards: raises the model score
receiving yards: lowers the model score
passing TDs: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

203 pass yds, 3 TD, 0 INT · 46 rush yds, 0 TD

Unavailable

#12

Experimental

Jaxson DartNYG · QB

1 games played. Projected finish: 3,043.3 passing yards · 26.3 passing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 3.44.

Main forecast factors

passing yards: raises the model score
receiving yards: lowers the model score
rushing yards: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

230 pass yds, 3 TD, 0 INT · 54 rush yds, 0 TD

Unavailable

Experimental

James CookBUF · RB

1 games played. Projected finish: 1,459.9 rushing yards · 9 rushing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 0.20.

Main forecast factors

rushing yards: raises the model score
RB position: raises the model score
rushing TDs: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

57 rush yds, 0 TD · 12 rec yds, 0 TD

Unavailable

#37

Experimental

Breece HallNYJ · RB

1 games played. Projected finish: 1,280.4 rushing yards · 7.4 rushing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 0.77.

Main forecast factors

rushing yards: raises the model score
RB position: raises the model score
rushing TDs: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

102 rush yds, 1 TD · 16 rec yds, 0 TD

Unavailable

#16

Experimental

Jacoby BrissettARI · QB

1 games played. Projected finish: 4,240.9 passing yards · 25.2 passing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 1.86.

Main forecast factors

passing yards: raises the model score
receiving yards: lowers the model score
passing TDs: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

277 pass yds, 1 TD, 0 INT · 14 rush yds, 0 TD

Unavailable

Experimental

Ashton JeantyLV · RB

1 games played. Projected finish: 1,162.5 rushing yards · 3.8 rushing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 0.74.

Main forecast factors

rushing yards: raises the model score
RB position: raises the model score
passing yards: lowers the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

102 rush yds, 0 TD · 45 rec yds, 2 TD

Unavailable

#17

Experimental

Chris OlaveNO · WR

1 games played. Projected finish: 1,694.8 receiving yards · 7.2 receiving TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: unavailable.

Main forecast factors

receiving yards: raises the model score
passing yards: lowers the model score
rushing yards: lowers the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

182 rec yds, 0 TD

Unavailable

Experimental

Jared GoffDET · QB

1 games played. Projected finish: 4,301.6 passing yards · 34 passing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 0.72.

Main forecast factors

passing yards: raises the model score
receiving yards: lowers the model score
passing TDs: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

206 pass yds, 2 TD, 0 INT · 2 rush yds, 0 TD

Unavailable

#19

Experimental

Puka NacuaLA · WR

1 games played. Projected finish: 1,682.8 receiving yards · 8 receiving TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: unavailable.

Main forecast factors

receiving yards: raises the model score
passing yards: lowers the model score
RB position: lowers the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

74 rec yds, 0 TD

Unavailable

Experimental

Chase BrownCIN · RB

1 games played. Projected finish: 1,002.5 rushing yards · 8.7 rushing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 0.18.

Main forecast factors

rushing yards: raises the model score
RB position: raises the model score
rushing TDs: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

56 rush yds, 1 TD · 22 rec yds, 0 TD

Unavailable

#39

Experimental