The race, week by week

NFL MVP and Awards Tracker

Award forecasts alongside on-field performance. Follow the leaders, see what drives their rankings, and revisit each weekly snapshot.

Updates after completed weekly games

Last updated:

Offensive Player of the Year

2026 season · Through week 3

Choose a historical snapshot

2026 · W5 2026 · W4 2026 · W3 2026 · W2 2026 · W1 2026 · W0

Forecast leader

Josh Allen

BUF · QB

Historical top-three hit rate

33%

6 retrospective validation seasons at this horizon

Forecast status

Experimental

Win percentages withheld pending validation

Race trajectory

Predicted rank by weekly snapshot for the current top 8. Each point is what the board said after that week, not a recomputation; weeks ranked below 25 run off the bottom.

Weekly leaders

Week 1

Josh Allen

BUF

Week 2

Jaxon Smith-Njigba

SEA

Week 3

Josh Allen

BUF

Methodology and validation

Each award has a separate regularized model trained on earlier seasons only. Candidates come from statistics available at the selected cutoff. Missing winners count as misses. The model predicts award winners; it does not estimate ballot share.

Remaining-season player totals shrink toward prior-season rates with a four-game prior. Team records use a beta prior. Coach forecasts compare projected wins with a preseason baseline formed from the prior season record. These projections assume continued availability and do not yet model future injury risk. Full-game production informs the award forecast; competitive-drive EPA is a separate performance measure. Awards do not change team ratings.

Historical results use reconstructed source files and a 24-hour result-availability assumption. Previously inspected years are retrospective validation, not a fresh holdout. CPOY training excludes seasons before the 2024 criteria change.

Winner hit rate: 0%. Winner coverage: 100%. Log loss: 4.48. Brier score: 1.06.

Precise probabilities require at least eight validation seasons, complete winner coverage, better log loss than a uniform baseline, and a leader-confidence gap of at most ten percentage points. Until then, rankings remain experimental.

Sources: nflverse player and schedule data, NFL Record and Fact Book, and NFL Honors results.

Rank	Candidate	Season line	Weekly move	Performance rank	Win probability
1	Josh AllenBUF · QB 3 games played. Projected finish: 4,192 passing yards · 27.5 passing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 9.61. Main forecast factors passing yards: raises the model score passing TDs: raises the model score rushing TDs: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	786 pass yds, 5 TD, 2 INT · 114 rush yds, 6 TD · 1 rec yds, 0 TD	+1	#1	Experimental
2	Jahmyr GibbsDET · RB 3 games played. Projected finish: 1,496.5 rushing yards · 18.1 rushing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 5.99. Main forecast factors rushing yards: raises the model score receiving yards: raises the model score rushing TDs: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	307 rush yds, 4 TD · 156 rec yds, 2 TD	+1	#6	Experimental
3	Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSEA · WR 3 games played. Projected finish: 2,058.8 receiving yards · 22.7 receiving TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 1.54. Main forecast factors receiving yards: raises the model score receiving TDs: raises the model score games played: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	14 pass yds, 0 TD, 0 INT · 405 rec yds, 6 TD	-2	#28	Experimental
4	Brock PurdySF · QB 3 games played. Projected finish: 4,293.2 passing yards · 44.8 passing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 9.42. Main forecast factors passing TDs: raises the model score passing yards: raises the model score receiving yards: lowers the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	789 pass yds, 9 TD, 1 INT · 93 rush yds, 1 TD	+2	#2	Experimental
5	Kenneth Walker IIIKC · RB 3 games played. Projected finish: 1,563.3 rushing yards · 8.4 rushing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 5.90. Main forecast factors rushing yards: raises the model score projected team wins: raises the model score team win rate: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	360 rush yds, 2 TD · 82 rec yds, 2 TD	-1	#7	Experimental
6	James CookBUF · RB 3 games played. Projected finish: 1,800.8 rushing yards · 11.7 rushing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 4.55. Main forecast factors rushing yards: raises the model score projected team wins: raises the model score team win rate: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	346 rush yds, 2 TD · 16 rec yds, 0 TD	+4	#9	Experimental
7	Christian McCaffreySF · RB 3 games played. Projected finish: 1,063.7 rushing yards · 13.7 rushing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 2.08. Main forecast factors rushing yards: raises the model score receiving yards: raises the model score projected team wins: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	166 rush yds, 3 TD · 104 rec yds, 0 TD	+1	#21	Experimental
8	Patrick MahomesKC · QB 3 games played. Projected finish: 4,485.7 passing yards · 33.6 passing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 6.26. Main forecast factors passing yards: raises the model score passing TDs: raises the model score receiving yards: lowers the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	812 pass yds, 7 TD, 2 INT · 41 rush yds, 1 TD	-3	#5	Experimental
9	Bijan RobinsonATL · RB 3 games played. Projected finish: 1,742.5 rushing yards · 9.3 rushing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 4.28. Main forecast factors rushing yards: raises the model score receiving yards: raises the model score rushing TDs: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	349 rush yds, 2 TD · 118 rec yds, 1 TD	-2	#10	Experimental
10	Derrick HenryBAL · RB 3 games played. Projected finish: 1,653.6 rushing yards · 25.5 rushing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 3.00. Main forecast factors rushing yards: raises the model score rushing TDs: raises the model score games played: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	301 rush yds, 6 TD · 38 rec yds, 0 TD	+1	#15	Experimental
11	Ashton JeantyLV · RB 3 games played. Projected finish: 1,076.8 rushing yards · 2.4 rushing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: -2.33. Main forecast factors rushing yards: raises the model score projected team wins: raises the model score team win rate: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	206 rush yds, 0 TD · 97 rec yds, 2 TD	+7	#388	Experimental
12	Amon-Ra St. BrownDET · WR 3 games played. Projected finish: 1,343.3 receiving yards · 20.2 receiving TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 0.01. Main forecast factors receiving yards: raises the model score receiving TDs: raises the model score games played: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	228 rec yds, 5 TD	+2	#190	Experimental
13	Jonathan TaylorIND · RB 3 games played. Projected finish: 1,519.9 rushing yards · 20.5 rushing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 2.53. Main forecast factors rushing yards: raises the model score rushing TDs: raises the model score games played: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	258 rush yds, 4 TD · 67 rec yds, 0 TD	-4	#19	Experimental
14	Jared GoffDET · QB 3 games played. Projected finish: 4,553.8 passing yards · 40 passing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 1.53. Main forecast factors passing TDs: raises the model score passing yards: raises the model score receiving yards: lowers the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	802 pass yds, 8 TD, 0 INT · 15 rush yds, 0 TD	+3	#29	Experimental
15	D'Andre SwiftCHI · RB 3 games played. Projected finish: 1,302.5 rushing yards · 13.5 rushing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 1.05. Main forecast factors rushing yards: raises the model score rushing TDs: raises the model score games played: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	253 rush yds, 3 TD · 68 rec yds, 0 TD	+1	#42	Experimental
16	Lamar JacksonBAL · QB 3 games played. Projected finish: 3,803.6 passing yards · 24.9 passing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 7.25. Main forecast factors passing yards: raises the model score passing TDs: raises the model score rushing yards: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	745 pass yds, 4 TD, 1 INT · 124 rush yds, 1 TD	+7	#4	Experimental
17	Trevor LawrenceJAX · QB 3 games played. Projected finish: 3,733.7 passing yards · 34.7 passing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 3.05. Main forecast factors passing TDs: raises the model score passing yards: raises the model score receiving yards: lowers the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	616 pass yds, 7 TD, 2 INT · 34 rush yds, 0 TD	+11	#14	Experimental
18	Jalen HurtsPHI · QB 3 games played. Projected finish: 3,472 passing yards · 27.5 passing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 2.86. Main forecast factors passing yards: raises the model score passing TDs: raises the model score receiving yards: lowers the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	620 pass yds, 5 TD, 3 INT · 87 rush yds, 1 TD	-6	#17	Experimental
19	Kirk CousinsLV · QB 3 games played. Projected finish: 3,359.8 passing yards · 35 passing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 2.97. Main forecast factors passing TDs: raises the model score passing yards: raises the model score receiving yards: lowers the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	661 pass yds, 9 TD, 3 INT	+33	#16	Experimental
20	Rashee RiceKC · WR 3 games played. Projected finish: 1,141 receiving yards · 8 receiving TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 0.10. Main forecast factors receiving yards: raises the model score projected team wins: raises the model score team win rate: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	190 rec yds, 1 TD	+22	#121	Experimental
21	Joe BurrowCIN · QB 3 games played. Projected finish: 4,038 passing yards · 35 passing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 3.93. Main forecast factors passing TDs: raises the model score passing yards: raises the model score receiving yards: lowers the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	743 pass yds, 6 TD, 1 INT · 32 rush yds, 0 TD	+6	#12	Experimental
22	Tyler ShoughNO · QB 3 games played. Projected finish: 4,484.8 passing yards · 31.3 passing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 0.04. Main forecast factors passing yards: raises the model score passing TDs: raises the model score receiving yards: lowers the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	917 pass yds, 8 TD, 3 INT · 67 rush yds, 1 TD	+4	#152	Experimental
23	Ja'Marr ChaseCIN · WR 3 games played. Projected finish: 1,261 receiving yards · 13 receiving TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 0.40. Main forecast factors receiving yards: raises the model score receiving TDs: raises the model score games played: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	185 rec yds, 3 TD	+10	#67	Experimental
24	Jaylen WarrenPIT · RB 3 games played. Projected finish: 1,127 rushing yards · 3 rushing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 0.93. Main forecast factors rushing yards: raises the model score games played: raises the model score RB position: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	216 rush yds, 0 TD · 110 rec yds, 0 TD	+19	#45	Experimental
25	Aaron JonesMIN · RB 3 games played. Projected finish: 974.3 rushing yards · 4.3 rushing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 1.09. Main forecast factors rushing yards: raises the model score projected team wins: raises the model score team win rate: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	203 rush yds, 1 TD · 34 rec yds, 0 TD	+25	#40	Experimental

Rank

Candidate

Season line

Weekly move

Performance rank

Win probability

Josh AllenBUF · QB

3 games played. Projected finish: 4,192 passing yards · 27.5 passing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 9.61.

Main forecast factors

passing yards: raises the model score
passing TDs: raises the model score
rushing TDs: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

786 pass yds, 5 TD, 2 INT · 114 rush yds, 6 TD · 1 rec yds, 0 TD

Experimental

Jahmyr GibbsDET · RB

3 games played. Projected finish: 1,496.5 rushing yards · 18.1 rushing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 5.99.

Main forecast factors

rushing yards: raises the model score
receiving yards: raises the model score
rushing TDs: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

307 rush yds, 4 TD · 156 rec yds, 2 TD

Experimental

Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSEA · WR

3 games played. Projected finish: 2,058.8 receiving yards · 22.7 receiving TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 1.54.

Main forecast factors

receiving yards: raises the model score
receiving TDs: raises the model score
games played: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

14 pass yds, 0 TD, 0 INT · 405 rec yds, 6 TD

-2

#28

Experimental

Brock PurdySF · QB

3 games played. Projected finish: 4,293.2 passing yards · 44.8 passing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 9.42.

Main forecast factors

passing TDs: raises the model score
passing yards: raises the model score
receiving yards: lowers the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

789 pass yds, 9 TD, 1 INT · 93 rush yds, 1 TD

Experimental

Kenneth Walker IIIKC · RB

3 games played. Projected finish: 1,563.3 rushing yards · 8.4 rushing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 5.90.

Main forecast factors

rushing yards: raises the model score
projected team wins: raises the model score
team win rate: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

360 rush yds, 2 TD · 82 rec yds, 2 TD

-1

Experimental

James CookBUF · RB

3 games played. Projected finish: 1,800.8 rushing yards · 11.7 rushing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 4.55.

Main forecast factors

rushing yards: raises the model score
projected team wins: raises the model score
team win rate: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

346 rush yds, 2 TD · 16 rec yds, 0 TD

Experimental

Christian McCaffreySF · RB

3 games played. Projected finish: 1,063.7 rushing yards · 13.7 rushing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 2.08.

Main forecast factors

rushing yards: raises the model score
receiving yards: raises the model score
projected team wins: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

166 rush yds, 3 TD · 104 rec yds, 0 TD

#21

Experimental

Patrick MahomesKC · QB

3 games played. Projected finish: 4,485.7 passing yards · 33.6 passing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 6.26.

Main forecast factors

passing yards: raises the model score
passing TDs: raises the model score
receiving yards: lowers the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

812 pass yds, 7 TD, 2 INT · 41 rush yds, 1 TD

-3

Experimental

Bijan RobinsonATL · RB

3 games played. Projected finish: 1,742.5 rushing yards · 9.3 rushing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 4.28.

Main forecast factors

rushing yards: raises the model score
receiving yards: raises the model score
rushing TDs: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

349 rush yds, 2 TD · 118 rec yds, 1 TD

-2

#10

Experimental

Derrick HenryBAL · RB

3 games played. Projected finish: 1,653.6 rushing yards · 25.5 rushing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 3.00.

Main forecast factors

rushing yards: raises the model score
rushing TDs: raises the model score
games played: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

301 rush yds, 6 TD · 38 rec yds, 0 TD

#15

Experimental

Ashton JeantyLV · RB

3 games played. Projected finish: 1,076.8 rushing yards · 2.4 rushing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: -2.33.

Main forecast factors

rushing yards: raises the model score
projected team wins: raises the model score
team win rate: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

206 rush yds, 0 TD · 97 rec yds, 2 TD

#388

Experimental

Amon-Ra St. BrownDET · WR

3 games played. Projected finish: 1,343.3 receiving yards · 20.2 receiving TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 0.01.

Main forecast factors

receiving yards: raises the model score
receiving TDs: raises the model score
games played: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

228 rec yds, 5 TD

#190

Experimental

Jonathan TaylorIND · RB

3 games played. Projected finish: 1,519.9 rushing yards · 20.5 rushing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 2.53.

Main forecast factors

rushing yards: raises the model score
rushing TDs: raises the model score
games played: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

258 rush yds, 4 TD · 67 rec yds, 0 TD

-4

#19

Experimental

Jared GoffDET · QB

3 games played. Projected finish: 4,553.8 passing yards · 40 passing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 1.53.

Main forecast factors

passing TDs: raises the model score
passing yards: raises the model score
receiving yards: lowers the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

802 pass yds, 8 TD, 0 INT · 15 rush yds, 0 TD

#29

Experimental

D'Andre SwiftCHI · RB

3 games played. Projected finish: 1,302.5 rushing yards · 13.5 rushing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 1.05.

Main forecast factors

rushing yards: raises the model score
rushing TDs: raises the model score
games played: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

253 rush yds, 3 TD · 68 rec yds, 0 TD

#42

Experimental

Lamar JacksonBAL · QB

3 games played. Projected finish: 3,803.6 passing yards · 24.9 passing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 7.25.

Main forecast factors

passing yards: raises the model score
passing TDs: raises the model score
rushing yards: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

745 pass yds, 4 TD, 1 INT · 124 rush yds, 1 TD

Experimental

Trevor LawrenceJAX · QB

3 games played. Projected finish: 3,733.7 passing yards · 34.7 passing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 3.05.

Main forecast factors

passing TDs: raises the model score
passing yards: raises the model score
receiving yards: lowers the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

616 pass yds, 7 TD, 2 INT · 34 rush yds, 0 TD

+11

#14

Experimental

Jalen HurtsPHI · QB

3 games played. Projected finish: 3,472 passing yards · 27.5 passing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 2.86.

Main forecast factors

passing yards: raises the model score
passing TDs: raises the model score
receiving yards: lowers the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

620 pass yds, 5 TD, 3 INT · 87 rush yds, 1 TD

-6

#17

Experimental

Kirk CousinsLV · QB

3 games played. Projected finish: 3,359.8 passing yards · 35 passing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 2.97.

Main forecast factors

passing TDs: raises the model score
passing yards: raises the model score
receiving yards: lowers the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

661 pass yds, 9 TD, 3 INT

+33

#16

Experimental

Rashee RiceKC · WR

3 games played. Projected finish: 1,141 receiving yards · 8 receiving TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 0.10.

Main forecast factors

receiving yards: raises the model score
projected team wins: raises the model score
team win rate: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

190 rec yds, 1 TD

+22

#121

Experimental

Joe BurrowCIN · QB

3 games played. Projected finish: 4,038 passing yards · 35 passing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 3.93.

Main forecast factors

passing TDs: raises the model score
passing yards: raises the model score
receiving yards: lowers the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

743 pass yds, 6 TD, 1 INT · 32 rush yds, 0 TD

#12

Experimental

Tyler ShoughNO · QB

3 games played. Projected finish: 4,484.8 passing yards · 31.3 passing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 0.04.

Main forecast factors

passing yards: raises the model score
passing TDs: raises the model score
receiving yards: lowers the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

917 pass yds, 8 TD, 3 INT · 67 rush yds, 1 TD

#152

Experimental

Ja'Marr ChaseCIN · WR

3 games played. Projected finish: 1,261 receiving yards · 13 receiving TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 0.40.

Main forecast factors

receiving yards: raises the model score
receiving TDs: raises the model score
games played: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

185 rec yds, 3 TD

+10

#67

Experimental

Jaylen WarrenPIT · RB

3 games played. Projected finish: 1,127 rushing yards · 3 rushing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 0.93.

Main forecast factors

rushing yards: raises the model score
games played: raises the model score
RB position: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

216 rush yds, 0 TD · 110 rec yds, 0 TD

+19

#45

Experimental

Aaron JonesMIN · RB

3 games played. Projected finish: 974.3 rushing yards · 4.3 rushing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 1.09.

Main forecast factors

rushing yards: raises the model score
projected team wins: raises the model score
team win rate: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

203 rush yds, 1 TD · 34 rec yds, 0 TD

+25

#40

Experimental