The race, week by week

NFL MVP and Awards Tracker

Award forecasts alongside on-field performance. Follow the leaders, see what drives their rankings, and revisit each weekly snapshot.

Updates after completed weekly games

Last updated:

Offensive Player of the Year

2026 season · Through week 4

Choose a historical snapshot

2026 · W5 2026 · W4 2026 · W3 2026 · W2 2026 · W1 2026 · W0

Forecast leader

Kenneth Walker III

KC · RB

Historical top-three hit rate

17%

6 retrospective validation seasons at this horizon

Forecast status

Experimental

Win percentages withheld pending validation

Race trajectory

Predicted rank by weekly snapshot for the current top 8. Each point is what the board said after that week, not a recomputation; weeks ranked below 25 run off the bottom.

Weekly leaders

Week 1

Josh Allen

BUF

Week 2

Jaxon Smith-Njigba

SEA

Week 3

Josh Allen

BUF

Week 4

Kenneth Walker III

Methodology and validation

Each award has a separate regularized model trained on earlier seasons only. Candidates come from statistics available at the selected cutoff. Missing winners count as misses. The model predicts award winners; it does not estimate ballot share.

Remaining-season player totals shrink toward prior-season rates with a four-game prior. Team records use a beta prior. Coach forecasts compare projected wins with a preseason baseline formed from the prior season record. These projections assume continued availability and do not yet model future injury risk. Full-game production informs the award forecast; competitive-drive EPA is a separate performance measure. Awards do not change team ratings.

Historical results use reconstructed source files and a 24-hour result-availability assumption. Previously inspected years are retrospective validation, not a fresh holdout. CPOY training excludes seasons before the 2024 criteria change.

Winner hit rate: 17%. Winner coverage: 100%. Log loss: 4.56. Brier score: 1.00.

Precise probabilities require at least eight validation seasons, complete winner coverage, better log loss than a uniform baseline, and a leader-confidence gap of at most ten percentage points. Until then, rankings remain experimental.

Sources: nflverse player and schedule data, NFL Record and Fact Book, and NFL Honors results.

Rank	Candidate	Season line	Weekly move	Performance rank	Win probability
1	Kenneth Walker IIIKC · RB 4 games played. Projected finish: 1,802.3 rushing yards · 12.4 rushing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 10.63. Main forecast factors rushing yards: raises the model score team win rate: raises the model score projected team wins: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	537 rush yds, 4 TD · 84 rec yds, 2 TD	+4	#4	Experimental
2	Brock PurdySF · QB 4 games played. Projected finish: 4,208.4 passing yards · 43.3 passing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 14.15. Main forecast factors passing TDs: raises the model score passing yards: raises the model score team win rate: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	1,007 pass yds, 11 TD, 1 INT · 122 rush yds, 1 TD	+2	#1	Experimental
3	Bijan RobinsonATL · RB 4 games played. Projected finish: 1,861.9 rushing yards · 13.2 rushing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 9.39. Main forecast factors rushing yards: raises the model score receiving yards: raises the model score rushing TDs: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	494 rush yds, 4 TD · 120 rec yds, 1 TD	+6	#6	Experimental
4	Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSEA · WR 4 games played. Projected finish: 1,948.2 receiving yards · 19.6 receiving TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 1.91. Main forecast factors receiving yards: raises the model score receiving TDs: raises the model score team win rate: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	14 pass yds, 0 TD, 0 INT · 481 rec yds, 6 TD	-1	#38	Experimental
5	Christian McCaffreySF · RB 4 games played. Projected finish: 1,031.8 rushing yards · 14.3 rushing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 3.23. Main forecast factors rushing yards: raises the model score team win rate: raises the model score receiving yards: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	218 rush yds, 4 TD · 122 rec yds, 0 TD	+2	#29	Experimental
6	Josh AllenBUF · QB 4 games played. Projected finish: 4,217.5 passing yards · 25.9 passing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 12.09. Main forecast factors passing yards: raises the model score passing TDs: raises the model score rushing TDs: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	1,039 pass yds, 6 TD, 3 INT · 118 rush yds, 7 TD · 1 rec yds, 0 TD	-5	#2	Experimental
7	Patrick MahomesKC · QB 4 games played. Projected finish: 4,387.5 passing yards · 33.8 passing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 7.60. Main forecast factors passing TDs: raises the model score passing yards: raises the model score team win rate: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	1,037 pass yds, 9 TD, 2 INT · 41 rush yds, 1 TD	+1	#9	Experimental
8	Jahmyr GibbsDET · RB 4 games played. Projected finish: 1,394.2 rushing yards · 18.1 rushing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 8.37. Main forecast factors rushing yards: raises the model score receiving yards: raises the model score rushing TDs: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	353 rush yds, 5 TD · 187 rec yds, 2 TD	-6	#7	Experimental
9	Derrick HenryBAL · RB 4 games played. Projected finish: 1,591.6 rushing yards · 24.5 rushing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 4.91. Main forecast factors rushing yards: raises the model score rushing TDs: raises the model score team win rate: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	374 rush yds, 7 TD · 44 rec yds, 0 TD	+1	#17	Experimental
10	James CookBUF · RB 4 games played. Projected finish: 1,724.9 rushing yards · 12.5 rushing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 7.70. Main forecast factors rushing yards: raises the model score rushing TDs: raises the model score team win rate: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	421 rush yds, 3 TD · 24 rec yds, 0 TD	-4	#8	Experimental
11	Jonathan TaylorIND · RB 4 games played. Projected finish: 1,532.7 rushing yards · 22.6 rushing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 6.16. Main forecast factors rushing yards: raises the model score rushing TDs: raises the model score games played: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	353 rush yds, 6 TD · 69 rec yds, 0 TD	+2	#12	Experimental
12	CeeDee LambDAL · WR 4 games played. Projected finish: 1,845.8 receiving yards · 12 receiving TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 2.60. Main forecast factors receiving yards: raises the model score rushing yards: lowers the model score games played: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	498 rec yds, 4 TD	+18	#33	Experimental
13	Lamar JacksonBAL · QB 4 games played. Projected finish: 3,812.9 passing yards · 26.3 passing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 10.24. Main forecast factors passing TDs: raises the model score passing yards: raises the model score rushing yards: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	967 pass yds, 6 TD, 1 INT · 144 rush yds, 1 TD	+3	#5	Experimental
14	D'Andre SwiftCHI · RB 4 games played. Projected finish: 1,258 rushing yards · 11.5 rushing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 0.40. Main forecast factors rushing yards: raises the model score rushing TDs: raises the model score team win rate: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	311 rush yds, 3 TD · 84 rec yds, 0 TD	+1	#79	Experimental
15	Kyren WilliamsLA · RB 4 games played. Projected finish: 1,250.5 rushing yards · 11.7 rushing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 4.23. Main forecast factors rushing yards: raises the model score receiving yards: raises the model score rushing TDs: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	294 rush yds, 3 TD · 173 rec yds, 1 TD	+12	#20	Experimental
16	Zay FlowersBAL · WR 3 games played. Projected finish: 1,534.9 receiving yards · 7.9 receiving TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 0.94. Main forecast factors receiving yards: raises the model score team win rate: raises the model score projected team wins: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	20 rush yds, 0 TD · 352 rec yds, 2 TD	+26	#50	Experimental
17	Ashton JeantyLV · RB 4 games played. Projected finish: 1,065.8 rushing yards · 1.9 rushing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: -1.85. Main forecast factors rushing yards: raises the model score receiving yards: raises the model score team win rate: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	264 rush yds, 0 TD · 165 rec yds, 2 TD	-6	#406	Experimental
18	Aaron JonesMIN · RB 4 games played. Projected finish: 1,076.5 rushing yards · 3.7 rushing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 2.98. Main forecast factors rushing yards: raises the model score team win rate: raises the model score projected team wins: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	297 rush yds, 1 TD · 68 rec yds, 0 TD	+7	#31	Experimental
19	Trevor LawrenceJAX · QB 4 games played. Projected finish: 3,745 passing yards · 32.1 passing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 5.12. Main forecast factors passing TDs: raises the model score passing yards: raises the model score receiving yards: lowers the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	843 pass yds, 8 TD, 2 INT · 34 rush yds, 0 TD	-2	#15	Experimental
20	Deebo Samuel Sr.SF · WR 4 games played. Projected finish: 781 receiving yards · 9.9 receiving TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 0.56. Main forecast factors receiving yards: raises the model score team win rate: raises the model score projected team wins: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	74 rush yds, 0 TD · 185 rec yds, 3 TD	+11	#68	Experimental
21	Kirk CousinsLV · QB 4 games played. Projected finish: 3,811.9 passing yards · 35.4 passing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 6.35. Main forecast factors passing TDs: raises the model score passing yards: raises the model score receiving yards: lowers the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	1,026 pass yds, 11 TD, 4 INT	-2	#11	Experimental
22	Rashee RiceKC · WR 3 games played. Projected finish: 1,073.1 receiving yards · 7.5 receiving TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 0.08. Main forecast factors receiving yards: raises the model score team win rate: raises the model score projected team wins: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	190 rec yds, 1 TD	-2	#148	Experimental
23	Jared GoffDET · QB 4 games played. Projected finish: 4,931.8 passing yards · 36.6 passing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 5.01. Main forecast factors passing TDs: raises the model score passing yards: raises the model score receiving yards: lowers the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	1,214 pass yds, 9 TD, 0 INT · 15 rush yds, 0 TD	-9	#16	Experimental
24	Dak PrescottDAL · QB 4 games played. Projected finish: 4,536.1 passing yards · 32.5 passing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 11.26. Main forecast factors passing TDs: raises the model score passing yards: raises the model score receiving yards: lowers the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	1,065 pass yds, 8 TD, 1 INT · 66 rush yds, 0 TD	+5	#3	Experimental
25	Deshaun WatsonCLE · QB 4 games played. Projected finish: 3,372.1 passing yards · 23.2 passing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 2.22. Main forecast factors passing TDs: raises the model score passing yards: raises the model score receiving yards: lowers the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	855 pass yds, 6 TD, 2 INT · 127 rush yds, 0 TD	+14	#36	Experimental

Rank

Candidate

Season line

Weekly move

Performance rank

Win probability

Kenneth Walker IIIKC · RB

4 games played. Projected finish: 1,802.3 rushing yards · 12.4 rushing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 10.63.

Main forecast factors

rushing yards: raises the model score
team win rate: raises the model score
projected team wins: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

537 rush yds, 4 TD · 84 rec yds, 2 TD

Experimental

Brock PurdySF · QB

4 games played. Projected finish: 4,208.4 passing yards · 43.3 passing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 14.15.

Main forecast factors

passing TDs: raises the model score
passing yards: raises the model score
team win rate: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

1,007 pass yds, 11 TD, 1 INT · 122 rush yds, 1 TD

Experimental

Bijan RobinsonATL · RB

4 games played. Projected finish: 1,861.9 rushing yards · 13.2 rushing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 9.39.

Main forecast factors

rushing yards: raises the model score
receiving yards: raises the model score
rushing TDs: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

494 rush yds, 4 TD · 120 rec yds, 1 TD

Experimental

Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSEA · WR

4 games played. Projected finish: 1,948.2 receiving yards · 19.6 receiving TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 1.91.

Main forecast factors

receiving yards: raises the model score
receiving TDs: raises the model score
team win rate: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

14 pass yds, 0 TD, 0 INT · 481 rec yds, 6 TD

-1

#38

Experimental

Christian McCaffreySF · RB

4 games played. Projected finish: 1,031.8 rushing yards · 14.3 rushing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 3.23.

Main forecast factors

rushing yards: raises the model score
team win rate: raises the model score
receiving yards: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

218 rush yds, 4 TD · 122 rec yds, 0 TD

#29

Experimental

Josh AllenBUF · QB

4 games played. Projected finish: 4,217.5 passing yards · 25.9 passing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 12.09.

Main forecast factors

passing yards: raises the model score
passing TDs: raises the model score
rushing TDs: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

1,039 pass yds, 6 TD, 3 INT · 118 rush yds, 7 TD · 1 rec yds, 0 TD

-5

Experimental

Patrick MahomesKC · QB

4 games played. Projected finish: 4,387.5 passing yards · 33.8 passing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 7.60.

Main forecast factors

passing TDs: raises the model score
passing yards: raises the model score
team win rate: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

1,037 pass yds, 9 TD, 2 INT · 41 rush yds, 1 TD

Experimental

Jahmyr GibbsDET · RB

4 games played. Projected finish: 1,394.2 rushing yards · 18.1 rushing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 8.37.

Main forecast factors

rushing yards: raises the model score
receiving yards: raises the model score
rushing TDs: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

353 rush yds, 5 TD · 187 rec yds, 2 TD

-6

Experimental

Derrick HenryBAL · RB

4 games played. Projected finish: 1,591.6 rushing yards · 24.5 rushing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 4.91.

Main forecast factors

rushing yards: raises the model score
rushing TDs: raises the model score
team win rate: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

374 rush yds, 7 TD · 44 rec yds, 0 TD

#17

Experimental

James CookBUF · RB

4 games played. Projected finish: 1,724.9 rushing yards · 12.5 rushing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 7.70.

Main forecast factors

rushing yards: raises the model score
rushing TDs: raises the model score
team win rate: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

421 rush yds, 3 TD · 24 rec yds, 0 TD

-4

Experimental

Jonathan TaylorIND · RB

4 games played. Projected finish: 1,532.7 rushing yards · 22.6 rushing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 6.16.

Main forecast factors

rushing yards: raises the model score
rushing TDs: raises the model score
games played: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

353 rush yds, 6 TD · 69 rec yds, 0 TD

#12

Experimental

CeeDee LambDAL · WR

4 games played. Projected finish: 1,845.8 receiving yards · 12 receiving TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 2.60.

Main forecast factors

receiving yards: raises the model score
rushing yards: lowers the model score
games played: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

498 rec yds, 4 TD

+18

#33

Experimental

Lamar JacksonBAL · QB

4 games played. Projected finish: 3,812.9 passing yards · 26.3 passing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 10.24.

Main forecast factors

passing TDs: raises the model score
passing yards: raises the model score
rushing yards: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

967 pass yds, 6 TD, 1 INT · 144 rush yds, 1 TD

Experimental

D'Andre SwiftCHI · RB

4 games played. Projected finish: 1,258 rushing yards · 11.5 rushing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 0.40.

Main forecast factors

rushing yards: raises the model score
rushing TDs: raises the model score
team win rate: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

311 rush yds, 3 TD · 84 rec yds, 0 TD

#79

Experimental

Kyren WilliamsLA · RB

4 games played. Projected finish: 1,250.5 rushing yards · 11.7 rushing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 4.23.

Main forecast factors

rushing yards: raises the model score
receiving yards: raises the model score
rushing TDs: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

294 rush yds, 3 TD · 173 rec yds, 1 TD

+12

#20

Experimental

Zay FlowersBAL · WR

3 games played. Projected finish: 1,534.9 receiving yards · 7.9 receiving TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 0.94.

Main forecast factors

receiving yards: raises the model score
team win rate: raises the model score
projected team wins: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

20 rush yds, 0 TD · 352 rec yds, 2 TD

+26

#50

Experimental

Ashton JeantyLV · RB

4 games played. Projected finish: 1,065.8 rushing yards · 1.9 rushing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: -1.85.

Main forecast factors

rushing yards: raises the model score
receiving yards: raises the model score
team win rate: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

264 rush yds, 0 TD · 165 rec yds, 2 TD

-6

#406

Experimental

Aaron JonesMIN · RB

4 games played. Projected finish: 1,076.5 rushing yards · 3.7 rushing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 2.98.

Main forecast factors

rushing yards: raises the model score
team win rate: raises the model score
projected team wins: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

297 rush yds, 1 TD · 68 rec yds, 0 TD

#31

Experimental

Trevor LawrenceJAX · QB

4 games played. Projected finish: 3,745 passing yards · 32.1 passing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 5.12.

Main forecast factors

passing TDs: raises the model score
passing yards: raises the model score
receiving yards: lowers the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

843 pass yds, 8 TD, 2 INT · 34 rush yds, 0 TD

-2

#15

Experimental

Deebo Samuel Sr.SF · WR

4 games played. Projected finish: 781 receiving yards · 9.9 receiving TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 0.56.

Main forecast factors

receiving yards: raises the model score
team win rate: raises the model score
projected team wins: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

74 rush yds, 0 TD · 185 rec yds, 3 TD

+11

#68

Experimental

Kirk CousinsLV · QB

4 games played. Projected finish: 3,811.9 passing yards · 35.4 passing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 6.35.

Main forecast factors

passing TDs: raises the model score
passing yards: raises the model score
receiving yards: lowers the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

1,026 pass yds, 11 TD, 4 INT

-2

#11

Experimental

Rashee RiceKC · WR

3 games played. Projected finish: 1,073.1 receiving yards · 7.5 receiving TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 0.08.

Main forecast factors

receiving yards: raises the model score
team win rate: raises the model score
projected team wins: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

190 rec yds, 1 TD

-2

#148

Experimental

Jared GoffDET · QB

4 games played. Projected finish: 4,931.8 passing yards · 36.6 passing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 5.01.

Main forecast factors

passing TDs: raises the model score
passing yards: raises the model score
receiving yards: lowers the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

1,214 pass yds, 9 TD, 0 INT · 15 rush yds, 0 TD

-9

#16

Experimental

Dak PrescottDAL · QB

4 games played. Projected finish: 4,536.1 passing yards · 32.5 passing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 11.26.

Main forecast factors

passing TDs: raises the model score
passing yards: raises the model score
receiving yards: lowers the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

1,065 pass yds, 8 TD, 1 INT · 66 rush yds, 0 TD

Experimental

Deshaun WatsonCLE · QB

4 games played. Projected finish: 3,372.1 passing yards · 23.2 passing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 2.22.

Main forecast factors

passing TDs: raises the model score
passing yards: raises the model score
receiving yards: lowers the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

855 pass yds, 6 TD, 2 INT · 127 rush yds, 0 TD

+14

#36

Experimental