The race, week by week

NFL MVP and Awards Tracker

Award forecasts alongside on-field performance. Follow the leaders, see what drives their rankings, and revisit each weekly snapshot.

Updates after completed weekly games

Last updated:

Offensive Player of the Year

2026 season · Through week 5

Choose a historical snapshot

2026 · W5 2026 · W4 2026 · W3 2026 · W2 2026 · W1 2026 · W0

Forecast leader

Kenneth Walker III

KC · RB

Historical top-three hit rate

17%

6 retrospective validation seasons at this horizon

Forecast status

Experimental

Win percentages withheld pending validation

Race trajectory

Predicted rank by weekly snapshot for the current top 8. Each point is what the board said after that week, not a recomputation; weeks ranked below 25 run off the bottom.

Weekly leaders

Week 1

Josh Allen

BUF

Week 2

Jaxon Smith-Njigba

SEA

Week 3

Josh Allen

BUF

Week 4

Kenneth Walker III

Week 5

Kenneth Walker III

Methodology and validation

Each award has a separate regularized model trained on earlier seasons only. Candidates come from statistics available at the selected cutoff. Missing winners count as misses. The model predicts award winners; it does not estimate ballot share.

Remaining-season player totals shrink toward prior-season rates with a four-game prior. Team records use a beta prior. Coach forecasts compare projected wins with a preseason baseline formed from the prior season record. These projections assume continued availability and do not yet model future injury risk. Full-game production informs the award forecast; competitive-drive EPA is a separate performance measure. Awards do not change team ratings.

Historical results use reconstructed source files and a 24-hour result-availability assumption. Previously inspected years are retrospective validation, not a fresh holdout. CPOY training excludes seasons before the 2024 criteria change.

Winner hit rate: 17%. Winner coverage: 100%. Log loss: 3.92. Brier score: 1.02.

Precise probabilities require at least eight validation seasons, complete winner coverage, better log loss than a uniform baseline, and a leader-confidence gap of at most ten percentage points. Until then, rankings remain experimental.

Sources: nflverse player and schedule data, NFL Record and Fact Book, and NFL Honors results.

Rank	Candidate	Season line	Weekly move	Performance rank	Win probability
1	Kenneth Walker IIIKC · RB 4 games played. Projected finish: 1,802.3 rushing yards · 12.4 rushing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 11.99. Main forecast factors rushing yards: raises the model score games remaining: raises the model score team win rate: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	537 rush yds, 4 TD · 84 rec yds, 2 TD	0	#7	Experimental
2	Josh AllenBUF · QB 5 games played. Projected finish: 4,137 passing yards · 24.7 passing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 23.82. Main forecast factors passing yards: raises the model score rushing TDs: raises the model score passing TDs: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	1,249 pass yds, 7 TD, 4 INT · 239 rush yds, 8 TD · 1 rec yds, 0 TD	+4	#1	Experimental
3	Patrick MahomesKC · QB 4 games played. Projected finish: 4,387.5 passing yards · 33.8 passing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 8.58. Main forecast factors passing yards: raises the model score passing TDs: raises the model score games remaining: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	1,037 pass yds, 9 TD, 2 INT · 41 rush yds, 1 TD	+4	#18	Experimental
4	Jahmyr GibbsDET · RB 5 games played. Projected finish: 1,559.7 rushing yards · 20.4 rushing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 12.68. Main forecast factors rushing yards: raises the model score receiving yards: raises the model score rushing TDs: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	504 rush yds, 7 TD · 243 rec yds, 2 TD	+4	#6	Experimental
5	Brock PurdySF · QB 5 games played. Projected finish: 4,074.8 passing yards · 42.2 passing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 17.02. Main forecast factors passing yards: raises the model score passing TDs: raises the model score team win rate: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	1,196 pass yds, 13 TD, 2 INT · 128 rush yds, 1 TD	-3	#2	Experimental
6	Christian McCaffreySF · RB 5 games played. Projected finish: 1,044.4 rushing yards · 14.8 rushing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 6.65. Main forecast factors rushing yards: raises the model score team win rate: raises the model score projected team wins: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	286 rush yds, 5 TD · 137 rec yds, 0 TD	-1	#24	Experimental
7	Derrick HenryBAL · RB 5 games played. Projected finish: 1,611.1 rushing yards · 21.4 rushing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 10.40. Main forecast factors rushing yards: raises the model score rushing TDs: raises the model score team win rate: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	476 rush yds, 7 TD · 62 rec yds, 1 TD	+2	#12	Experimental
8	Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSEA · WR 5 games played. Projected finish: 1,922.8 receiving yards · 19.5 receiving TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 2.64. Main forecast factors receiving yards: raises the model score games remaining: raises the model score games played: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	14 pass yds, 0 TD, 0 INT · 16 rush yds, 0 TD · 583 rec yds, 7 TD	-4	#44	Experimental
9	James CookBUF · RB 5 games played. Projected finish: 1,749.9 rushing yards · 15.4 rushing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 11.67. Main forecast factors rushing yards: raises the model score rushing TDs: raises the model score team win rate: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	532 rush yds, 5 TD · 31 rec yds, 0 TD	+1	#8	Experimental
10	Bijan RobinsonATL · RB 5 games played. Projected finish: 1,817 rushing yards · 11.5 rushing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 12.77. Main forecast factors rushing yards: raises the model score receiving yards: raises the model score rushing TDs: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	580 rush yds, 4 TD · 152 rec yds, 1 TD	-7	#5	Experimental
11	Zay FlowersBAL · WR 4 games played. Projected finish: 1,439.9 receiving yards · 6.8 receiving TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 1.56. Main forecast factors receiving yards: raises the model score team win rate: raises the model score projected team wins: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	33 rush yds, 0 TD · 405 rec yds, 2 TD	+5	#57	Experimental
12	Rashee RiceKC · WR 3 games played. Projected finish: 1,073.1 receiving yards · 7.5 receiving TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 0.09. Main forecast factors receiving yards: raises the model score games remaining: raises the model score team win rate: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	190 rec yds, 1 TD	+10	#169	Experimental
13	Aaron JonesMIN · RB 5 games played. Projected finish: 1,200.2 rushing yards · 5.6 rushing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 3.86. Main forecast factors rushing yards: raises the model score team win rate: raises the model score projected team wins: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	410 rush yds, 2 TD · 72 rec yds, 0 TD	+5	#33	Experimental
14	Trevor LawrenceJAX · QB 5 games played. Projected finish: 3,996.4 passing yards · 32.4 passing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 10.24. Main forecast factors passing yards: raises the model score passing TDs: raises the model score receiving yards: lowers the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	1,174 pass yds, 10 TD, 3 INT · 59 rush yds, 0 TD	+5	#13	Experimental
15	Jaylen WarrenPIT · RB 5 games played. Projected finish: 1,276 rushing yards · 4.3 rushing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 8.50. Main forecast factors rushing yards: raises the model score receiving yards: raises the model score games remaining: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	410 rush yds, 1 TD · 230 rec yds, 1 TD	+16	#19	Experimental
16	Tyquan ThorntonKC · WR 4 games played. Projected finish: 812.1 receiving yards · 6.9 receiving TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 0.45. Main forecast factors games remaining: raises the model score receiving yards: raises the model score team win rate: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	219 rec yds, 2 TD	+24	#104	Experimental
17	Bryce YoungCAR · QB 4 games played. Projected finish: 4,551.7 passing yards · 33 passing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 7.11. Main forecast factors passing yards: raises the model score passing TDs: raises the model score games remaining: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	1,268 pass yds, 9 TD, 2 INT · 19 rush yds, 1 TD	+10	#23	Experimental
18	Drake MayeNE · QB 5 games played. Projected finish: 4,243.8 passing yards · 28.4 passing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 9.07. Main forecast factors passing yards: raises the model score passing TDs: raises the model score receiving yards: lowers the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	1,228 pass yds, 8 TD, 7 INT · 161 rush yds, 1 TD	+24	#15	Experimental
19	Lamar JacksonBAL · QB 4 games played. Projected finish: 3,594 passing yards · 24.7 passing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 10.95. Main forecast factors passing yards: raises the model score passing TDs: raises the model score receiving yards: lowers the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	967 pass yds, 6 TD, 1 INT · 144 rush yds, 1 TD	-6	#10	Experimental
20	Jared GoffDET · QB 5 games played. Projected finish: 4,896.8 passing yards · 38.7 passing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 7.27. Main forecast factors passing yards: raises the model score passing TDs: raises the model score receiving yards: lowers the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	1,485 pass yds, 12 TD, 0 INT · 16 rush yds, 1 TD	+3	#20	Experimental
21	Mike EvansSF · WR 5 games played. Projected finish: 1,006 receiving yards · 9 receiving TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 1.64. Main forecast factors receiving yards: raises the model score team win rate: raises the model score projected team wins: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	326 rec yds, 3 TD	+9	#54	Experimental
22	Tetairoa McMillanCAR · WR 4 games played. Projected finish: 1,398.3 receiving yards · 7.9 receiving TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 0.66. Main forecast factors receiving yards: raises the model score games remaining: raises the model score rushing yards: lowers the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	385 rec yds, 2 TD	+21	#83	Experimental
23	Jonathan TaylorIND · RB 5 games played. Projected finish: 1,425.9 rushing yards · 19.7 rushing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 9.07. Main forecast factors rushing yards: raises the model score rushing TDs: raises the model score games remaining: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	398 rush yds, 6 TD · 106 rec yds, 0 TD	-12	#16	Experimental
24	Joe BurrowCIN · QB 5 games played. Projected finish: 4,381.7 passing yards · 37 passing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 13.43. Main forecast factors passing yards: raises the model score passing TDs: raises the model score receiving yards: lowers the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	1,361 pass yds, 11 TD, 3 INT · 48 rush yds, 1 TD	+4	#4	Experimental
25	Justin JeffersonMIN · WR 4 games played. Projected finish: 1,014.9 receiving yards · 8.2 receiving TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 0.71. Main forecast factors receiving yards: raises the model score team win rate: raises the model score projected team wins: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	258 rec yds, 3 TD	+14	#82	Experimental

Rank

Candidate

Season line

Weekly move

Performance rank

Win probability

Kenneth Walker IIIKC · RB

4 games played. Projected finish: 1,802.3 rushing yards · 12.4 rushing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 11.99.

Main forecast factors

rushing yards: raises the model score
games remaining: raises the model score
team win rate: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

537 rush yds, 4 TD · 84 rec yds, 2 TD

Experimental

Josh AllenBUF · QB

5 games played. Projected finish: 4,137 passing yards · 24.7 passing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 23.82.

Main forecast factors

passing yards: raises the model score
rushing TDs: raises the model score
passing TDs: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

1,249 pass yds, 7 TD, 4 INT · 239 rush yds, 8 TD · 1 rec yds, 0 TD

Experimental

Patrick MahomesKC · QB

4 games played. Projected finish: 4,387.5 passing yards · 33.8 passing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 8.58.

Main forecast factors

passing yards: raises the model score
passing TDs: raises the model score
games remaining: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

1,037 pass yds, 9 TD, 2 INT · 41 rush yds, 1 TD

#18

Experimental

Jahmyr GibbsDET · RB

5 games played. Projected finish: 1,559.7 rushing yards · 20.4 rushing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 12.68.

Main forecast factors

rushing yards: raises the model score
receiving yards: raises the model score
rushing TDs: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

504 rush yds, 7 TD · 243 rec yds, 2 TD

Experimental

Brock PurdySF · QB

5 games played. Projected finish: 4,074.8 passing yards · 42.2 passing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 17.02.

Main forecast factors

passing yards: raises the model score
passing TDs: raises the model score
team win rate: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

1,196 pass yds, 13 TD, 2 INT · 128 rush yds, 1 TD

-3

Experimental

Christian McCaffreySF · RB

5 games played. Projected finish: 1,044.4 rushing yards · 14.8 rushing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 6.65.

Main forecast factors

rushing yards: raises the model score
team win rate: raises the model score
projected team wins: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

286 rush yds, 5 TD · 137 rec yds, 0 TD

-1

#24

Experimental

Derrick HenryBAL · RB

5 games played. Projected finish: 1,611.1 rushing yards · 21.4 rushing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 10.40.

Main forecast factors

rushing yards: raises the model score
rushing TDs: raises the model score
team win rate: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

476 rush yds, 7 TD · 62 rec yds, 1 TD

#12

Experimental

Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSEA · WR

5 games played. Projected finish: 1,922.8 receiving yards · 19.5 receiving TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 2.64.

Main forecast factors

receiving yards: raises the model score
games remaining: raises the model score
games played: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

14 pass yds, 0 TD, 0 INT · 16 rush yds, 0 TD · 583 rec yds, 7 TD

-4

#44

Experimental

James CookBUF · RB

5 games played. Projected finish: 1,749.9 rushing yards · 15.4 rushing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 11.67.

Main forecast factors

rushing yards: raises the model score
rushing TDs: raises the model score
team win rate: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

532 rush yds, 5 TD · 31 rec yds, 0 TD

Experimental

Bijan RobinsonATL · RB

5 games played. Projected finish: 1,817 rushing yards · 11.5 rushing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 12.77.

Main forecast factors

rushing yards: raises the model score
receiving yards: raises the model score
rushing TDs: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

580 rush yds, 4 TD · 152 rec yds, 1 TD

-7

Experimental

Zay FlowersBAL · WR

4 games played. Projected finish: 1,439.9 receiving yards · 6.8 receiving TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 1.56.

Main forecast factors

receiving yards: raises the model score
team win rate: raises the model score
projected team wins: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

33 rush yds, 0 TD · 405 rec yds, 2 TD

#57

Experimental

Rashee RiceKC · WR

3 games played. Projected finish: 1,073.1 receiving yards · 7.5 receiving TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 0.09.

Main forecast factors

receiving yards: raises the model score
games remaining: raises the model score
team win rate: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

190 rec yds, 1 TD

+10

#169

Experimental

Aaron JonesMIN · RB

5 games played. Projected finish: 1,200.2 rushing yards · 5.6 rushing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 3.86.

Main forecast factors

rushing yards: raises the model score
team win rate: raises the model score
projected team wins: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

410 rush yds, 2 TD · 72 rec yds, 0 TD

#33

Experimental

Trevor LawrenceJAX · QB

5 games played. Projected finish: 3,996.4 passing yards · 32.4 passing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 10.24.

Main forecast factors

passing yards: raises the model score
passing TDs: raises the model score
receiving yards: lowers the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

1,174 pass yds, 10 TD, 3 INT · 59 rush yds, 0 TD

#13

Experimental

Jaylen WarrenPIT · RB

5 games played. Projected finish: 1,276 rushing yards · 4.3 rushing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 8.50.

Main forecast factors

rushing yards: raises the model score
receiving yards: raises the model score
games remaining: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

410 rush yds, 1 TD · 230 rec yds, 1 TD

+16

#19

Experimental

Tyquan ThorntonKC · WR

4 games played. Projected finish: 812.1 receiving yards · 6.9 receiving TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 0.45.

Main forecast factors

games remaining: raises the model score
receiving yards: raises the model score
team win rate: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

219 rec yds, 2 TD

+24

#104

Experimental

Bryce YoungCAR · QB

4 games played. Projected finish: 4,551.7 passing yards · 33 passing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 7.11.

Main forecast factors

passing yards: raises the model score
passing TDs: raises the model score
games remaining: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

1,268 pass yds, 9 TD, 2 INT · 19 rush yds, 1 TD

+10

#23

Experimental

Drake MayeNE · QB

5 games played. Projected finish: 4,243.8 passing yards · 28.4 passing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 9.07.

Main forecast factors

passing yards: raises the model score
passing TDs: raises the model score
receiving yards: lowers the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

1,228 pass yds, 8 TD, 7 INT · 161 rush yds, 1 TD

+24

#15

Experimental

Lamar JacksonBAL · QB

4 games played. Projected finish: 3,594 passing yards · 24.7 passing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 10.95.

Main forecast factors

passing yards: raises the model score
passing TDs: raises the model score
receiving yards: lowers the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

967 pass yds, 6 TD, 1 INT · 144 rush yds, 1 TD

-6

#10

Experimental

Jared GoffDET · QB

5 games played. Projected finish: 4,896.8 passing yards · 38.7 passing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 7.27.

Main forecast factors

passing yards: raises the model score
passing TDs: raises the model score
receiving yards: lowers the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

1,485 pass yds, 12 TD, 0 INT · 16 rush yds, 1 TD

#20

Experimental

Mike EvansSF · WR

5 games played. Projected finish: 1,006 receiving yards · 9 receiving TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 1.64.

Main forecast factors

receiving yards: raises the model score
team win rate: raises the model score
projected team wins: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

326 rec yds, 3 TD

#54

Experimental

Tetairoa McMillanCAR · WR

4 games played. Projected finish: 1,398.3 receiving yards · 7.9 receiving TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 0.66.

Main forecast factors

receiving yards: raises the model score
games remaining: raises the model score
rushing yards: lowers the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

385 rec yds, 2 TD

+21

#83

Experimental

Jonathan TaylorIND · RB

5 games played. Projected finish: 1,425.9 rushing yards · 19.7 rushing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 9.07.

Main forecast factors

rushing yards: raises the model score
rushing TDs: raises the model score
games remaining: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

398 rush yds, 6 TD · 106 rec yds, 0 TD

-12

#16

Experimental

Joe BurrowCIN · QB

5 games played. Projected finish: 4,381.7 passing yards · 37 passing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 13.43.

Main forecast factors

passing yards: raises the model score
passing TDs: raises the model score
receiving yards: lowers the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

1,361 pass yds, 11 TD, 3 INT · 48 rush yds, 1 TD

Experimental

Justin JeffersonMIN · WR

4 games played. Projected finish: 1,014.9 receiving yards · 8.2 receiving TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 0.71.

Main forecast factors

receiving yards: raises the model score
team win rate: raises the model score
projected team wins: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

258 rec yds, 3 TD

+14

#82

Experimental