The race, week by week

NFL MVP and Awards Tracker

Award forecasts alongside on-field performance. Follow the leaders, see what drives their rankings, and revisit each weekly snapshot.

Updates after completed weekly games

Last updated:

Offensive Rookie of the Year

2026 season · Through week 1

Choose a historical snapshot

2026 · W5 2026 · W4 2026 · W3 2026 · W2 2026 · W1 2026 · W0

Forecast leader

Caleb Douglas

MIA · WR

Historical top-three hit rate

33%

6 retrospective validation seasons at this horizon

Forecast status

Experimental

Win percentages withheld pending validation

Race trajectory

The race chart needs at least two weekly snapshots.

Weekly leaders

Week 1

Caleb Douglas

MIA

Methodology and validation

Each award has a separate regularized model trained on earlier seasons only. Candidates come from statistics available at the selected cutoff. Missing winners count as misses. The model predicts award winners; it does not estimate ballot share.

Remaining-season player totals shrink toward prior-season rates with a four-game prior. Team records use a beta prior. Coach forecasts compare projected wins with a preseason baseline formed from the prior season record. These projections assume continued availability and do not yet model future injury risk. Full-game production informs the award forecast; competitive-drive EPA is a separate performance measure. Awards do not change team ratings.

Historical results use reconstructed source files and a 24-hour result-availability assumption. Previously inspected years are retrospective validation, not a fresh holdout. CPOY training excludes seasons before the 2024 criteria change.

Winner hit rate: 17%. Winner coverage: 83%. Log loss: 8.65. Brier score: 0.95.

Precise probabilities require at least eight validation seasons, complete winner coverage, better log loss than a uniform baseline, and a leader-confidence gap of at most ten percentage points. Until then, rankings remain experimental.

Sources: nflverse player and schedule data, NFL Record and Fact Book, and NFL Honors results.

Rank	Candidate	Season line	Weekly move	Performance rank	Win probability
1	Caleb DouglasMIA · WR 1 games played. Projected finish: 780.6 receiving yards · 2.5 receiving TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: unavailable. Main forecast factors receiving yards: raises the model score rushing yards: lowers the model score passing yards: lowers the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	94 rec yds, 0 TD	Unavailable	Unavailable	Experimental
2	Emmett JohnsonKC · RB 1 games played. Projected finish: 551.8 rushing yards · 3.9 rushing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 0.03. Main forecast factors rushing yards: raises the model score RB position: raises the model score rushing TDs: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	24 rush yds, 0 TD · 44 rec yds, 0 TD	Unavailable	#4	Experimental
3	Jeremiyah LoveARI · RB 1 games played. Projected finish: 623.2 rushing yards · 8.1 rushing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 0.14. Main forecast factors receiving yards: lowers the model score rushing yards: raises the model score rushing TDs: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	41 rush yds, 1 TD · 9 rec yds, 0 TD	Unavailable	#3	Experimental
4	Kaelon BlackSF · RB 1 games played. Projected finish: 724 rushing yards · 3.9 rushing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 0.22. Main forecast factors rushing yards: raises the model score receiving yards: lowers the model score RB position: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	65 rush yds, 0 TD · 5 rec yds, 0 TD	Unavailable	#1	Experimental
5	Jadarian PriceSEA · RB 1 games played. Projected finish: 669.4 rushing yards · 3.9 rushing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 0.17. Main forecast factors rushing yards: raises the model score receiving yards: lowers the model score RB position: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	52 rush yds, 0 TD · 6 rec yds, 0 TD	Unavailable	#2	Experimental
6	Antonio WilliamsWAS · WR 1 games played. Projected finish: 654.6 receiving yards · 6.7 receiving TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: unavailable. Main forecast factors receiving yards: raises the model score rushing yards: lowers the model score passing yards: lowers the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	64 rec yds, 1 TD	Unavailable	Unavailable	Experimental
7	Denzel BostonCLE · WR 1 games played. Projected finish: 633.6 receiving yards · 6.7 receiving TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: unavailable. Main forecast factors receiving yards: raises the model score rushing yards: lowers the model score passing yards: lowers the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	59 rec yds, 1 TD	Unavailable	Unavailable	Experimental
8	Mike Washington Jr.LV · RB 1 games played. Projected finish: 623.2 rushing yards · 3.9 rushing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 0.01. Main forecast factors receiving yards: lowers the model score rushing yards: raises the model score RB position: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	41 rush yds, 0 TD	Unavailable	#7	Experimental
9	KC ConcepcionCLE · WR 1 games played. Projected finish: 566.4 receiving yards · 2.5 receiving TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: unavailable. Main forecast factors receiving yards: raises the model score passing yards: lowers the model score rushing yards: lowers the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	15 rush yds, 0 TD · 43 rec yds, 0 TD	Unavailable	Unavailable	Experimental
10	Kaytron AllenWAS · RB 1 games played. Projected finish: 518.2 rushing yards · 3.9 rushing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 0.02. Main forecast factors receiving yards: lowers the model score rushing yards: raises the model score RB position: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	16 rush yds, 0 TD	Unavailable	#5	Experimental
11	Bryce LanceNO · WR 1 games played. Projected finish: 562.2 receiving yards · 2.5 receiving TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: unavailable. Main forecast factors receiving yards: raises the model score rushing yards: lowers the model score passing yards: lowers the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	42 rec yds, 0 TD	Unavailable	Unavailable	Experimental
12	Seth McGowanIND · RB 1 games played. Projected finish: 451 rushing yards · 3.9 rushing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: unavailable. Main forecast factors receiving yards: lowers the model score rushing yards: raises the model score RB position: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	–	Unavailable	Unavailable	Experimental
13	Eli HeidenreichPIT · RB 1 games played. Projected finish: 451 rushing yards · 3.9 rushing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: unavailable. Main forecast factors receiving yards: lowers the model score rushing yards: raises the model score RB position: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	–	Unavailable	Unavailable	Experimental
14	Jonah ColemanDEN · RB 1 games played. Projected finish: 451 rushing yards · 3.9 rushing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: unavailable. Main forecast factors receiving yards: lowers the model score rushing yards: raises the model score RB position: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	–	Unavailable	Unavailable	Experimental
15	CJ DonaldsonNO · RB 1 games played. Projected finish: 467.8 rushing yards · 3.9 rushing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 0.02. Main forecast factors receiving yards: lowers the model score rushing yards: raises the model score RB position: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	4 rush yds, 0 TD	Unavailable	#6	Experimental
16	Carnell TateTEN · WR 1 games played. Projected finish: 545.4 receiving yards · 2.5 receiving TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: unavailable. Main forecast factors receiving yards: raises the model score rushing yards: lowers the model score passing yards: lowers the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	38 rec yds, 0 TD	Unavailable	Unavailable	Experimental
17	Ted Hurst IIITB · WR 1 games played. Projected finish: 537 receiving yards · 2.5 receiving TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: unavailable. Main forecast factors receiving yards: raises the model score rushing yards: lowers the model score passing yards: lowers the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	36 rec yds, 0 TD	Unavailable	Unavailable	Experimental
18	Omar Cooper Jr.NYJ · WR 1 games played. Projected finish: 511.8 receiving yards · 2.5 receiving TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: unavailable. Main forecast factors receiving yards: raises the model score rushing yards: lowers the model score passing yards: lowers the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	30 rec yds, 0 TD	Unavailable	Unavailable	Experimental
19	Malachi FieldsNYG · WR 1 games played. Projected finish: 490.8 receiving yards · 2.5 receiving TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: unavailable. Main forecast factors receiving yards: raises the model score rushing yards: lowers the model score passing yards: lowers the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	25 rec yds, 0 TD	Unavailable	Unavailable	Experimental
20	Chris BellMIA · WR 1 games played. Projected finish: 490.8 receiving yards · 2.5 receiving TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: unavailable. Main forecast factors receiving yards: raises the model score rushing yards: lowers the model score passing yards: lowers the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	25 rec yds, 0 TD	Unavailable	Unavailable	Experimental
21	Dohnte MeyersCIN · WR 1 games played. Projected finish: 461.4 receiving yards · 2.5 receiving TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: unavailable. Main forecast factors receiving yards: raises the model score passing yards: lowers the model score rushing yards: lowers the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	10 rush yds, 0 TD · 18 rec yds, 0 TD	Unavailable	Unavailable	Experimental
22	Josh CameronJAX · WR 1 games played. Projected finish: 469.8 receiving yards · 6.7 receiving TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: unavailable. Main forecast factors receiving yards: raises the model score rushing yards: lowers the model score passing yards: lowers the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	20 rec yds, 1 TD	Unavailable	Unavailable	Experimental
23	Ja'Kobi LaneBAL · WR 1 games played. Projected finish: 432 receiving yards · 2.5 receiving TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: unavailable. Main forecast factors receiving yards: raises the model score rushing yards: lowers the model score passing yards: lowers the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	11 rec yds, 0 TD	Unavailable	Unavailable	Experimental
24	Malik BensonLV · WR 1 games played. Projected finish: 411 receiving yards · 2.5 receiving TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: unavailable. Main forecast factors rushing yards: lowers the model score receiving yards: raises the model score passing yards: lowers the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	6 rec yds, 0 TD	Unavailable	Unavailable	Experimental
25	Barion BrownNO · WR 1 games played. Projected finish: 385.8 receiving yards · 2.5 receiving TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: unavailable. Main forecast factors rushing yards: lowers the model score passing yards: lowers the model score RB position: lowers the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	3 rush yds, 0 TD	Unavailable	Unavailable	Experimental

Rank

Candidate

Season line

Weekly move

Performance rank

Win probability

Caleb DouglasMIA · WR

1 games played. Projected finish: 780.6 receiving yards · 2.5 receiving TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: unavailable.

Main forecast factors

receiving yards: raises the model score
rushing yards: lowers the model score
passing yards: lowers the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

94 rec yds, 0 TD

Unavailable

Experimental

Emmett JohnsonKC · RB

1 games played. Projected finish: 551.8 rushing yards · 3.9 rushing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 0.03.

Main forecast factors

rushing yards: raises the model score
RB position: raises the model score
rushing TDs: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

24 rush yds, 0 TD · 44 rec yds, 0 TD

Unavailable

Experimental

Jeremiyah LoveARI · RB

1 games played. Projected finish: 623.2 rushing yards · 8.1 rushing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 0.14.

Main forecast factors

receiving yards: lowers the model score
rushing yards: raises the model score
rushing TDs: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

41 rush yds, 1 TD · 9 rec yds, 0 TD

Unavailable

Experimental

Kaelon BlackSF · RB

1 games played. Projected finish: 724 rushing yards · 3.9 rushing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 0.22.

Main forecast factors

rushing yards: raises the model score
receiving yards: lowers the model score
RB position: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

65 rush yds, 0 TD · 5 rec yds, 0 TD

Unavailable

Experimental

Jadarian PriceSEA · RB

1 games played. Projected finish: 669.4 rushing yards · 3.9 rushing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 0.17.

Main forecast factors

rushing yards: raises the model score
receiving yards: lowers the model score
RB position: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

52 rush yds, 0 TD · 6 rec yds, 0 TD

Unavailable

Experimental

Antonio WilliamsWAS · WR

1 games played. Projected finish: 654.6 receiving yards · 6.7 receiving TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: unavailable.

Main forecast factors

receiving yards: raises the model score
rushing yards: lowers the model score
passing yards: lowers the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

64 rec yds, 1 TD

Unavailable

Experimental

Denzel BostonCLE · WR

1 games played. Projected finish: 633.6 receiving yards · 6.7 receiving TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: unavailable.

Main forecast factors

receiving yards: raises the model score
rushing yards: lowers the model score
passing yards: lowers the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

59 rec yds, 1 TD

Unavailable

Experimental

Mike Washington Jr.LV · RB

1 games played. Projected finish: 623.2 rushing yards · 3.9 rushing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 0.01.

Main forecast factors

receiving yards: lowers the model score
rushing yards: raises the model score
RB position: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

41 rush yds, 0 TD

Unavailable

Experimental

KC ConcepcionCLE · WR

1 games played. Projected finish: 566.4 receiving yards · 2.5 receiving TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: unavailable.

Main forecast factors

receiving yards: raises the model score
passing yards: lowers the model score
rushing yards: lowers the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

15 rush yds, 0 TD · 43 rec yds, 0 TD

Unavailable

Experimental

Kaytron AllenWAS · RB

1 games played. Projected finish: 518.2 rushing yards · 3.9 rushing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 0.02.

Main forecast factors

receiving yards: lowers the model score
rushing yards: raises the model score
RB position: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

16 rush yds, 0 TD

Unavailable

Experimental

Bryce LanceNO · WR

1 games played. Projected finish: 562.2 receiving yards · 2.5 receiving TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: unavailable.

Main forecast factors

receiving yards: raises the model score
rushing yards: lowers the model score
passing yards: lowers the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

42 rec yds, 0 TD

Unavailable

Experimental

Seth McGowanIND · RB

1 games played. Projected finish: 451 rushing yards · 3.9 rushing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: unavailable.

Main forecast factors

receiving yards: lowers the model score
rushing yards: raises the model score
RB position: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

–

Unavailable

Experimental

Eli HeidenreichPIT · RB

1 games played. Projected finish: 451 rushing yards · 3.9 rushing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: unavailable.

Main forecast factors

receiving yards: lowers the model score
rushing yards: raises the model score
RB position: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

–

Unavailable

Experimental

Jonah ColemanDEN · RB

1 games played. Projected finish: 451 rushing yards · 3.9 rushing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: unavailable.

Main forecast factors

receiving yards: lowers the model score
rushing yards: raises the model score
RB position: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

–

Unavailable

Experimental

CJ DonaldsonNO · RB

1 games played. Projected finish: 467.8 rushing yards · 3.9 rushing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 0.02.

Main forecast factors

receiving yards: lowers the model score
rushing yards: raises the model score
RB position: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

4 rush yds, 0 TD

Unavailable

Experimental

Carnell TateTEN · WR

1 games played. Projected finish: 545.4 receiving yards · 2.5 receiving TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: unavailable.

Main forecast factors

receiving yards: raises the model score
rushing yards: lowers the model score
passing yards: lowers the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

38 rec yds, 0 TD

Unavailable

Experimental

Ted Hurst IIITB · WR

1 games played. Projected finish: 537 receiving yards · 2.5 receiving TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: unavailable.

Main forecast factors

receiving yards: raises the model score
rushing yards: lowers the model score
passing yards: lowers the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

36 rec yds, 0 TD

Unavailable

Experimental

Omar Cooper Jr.NYJ · WR

1 games played. Projected finish: 511.8 receiving yards · 2.5 receiving TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: unavailable.

Main forecast factors

receiving yards: raises the model score
rushing yards: lowers the model score
passing yards: lowers the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

30 rec yds, 0 TD

Unavailable

Experimental

Malachi FieldsNYG · WR

1 games played. Projected finish: 490.8 receiving yards · 2.5 receiving TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: unavailable.

Main forecast factors

receiving yards: raises the model score
rushing yards: lowers the model score
passing yards: lowers the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

25 rec yds, 0 TD

Unavailable

Experimental

Chris BellMIA · WR

1 games played. Projected finish: 490.8 receiving yards · 2.5 receiving TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: unavailable.

Main forecast factors

receiving yards: raises the model score
rushing yards: lowers the model score
passing yards: lowers the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

25 rec yds, 0 TD

Unavailable

Experimental

Dohnte MeyersCIN · WR

1 games played. Projected finish: 461.4 receiving yards · 2.5 receiving TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: unavailable.

Main forecast factors

receiving yards: raises the model score
passing yards: lowers the model score
rushing yards: lowers the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

10 rush yds, 0 TD · 18 rec yds, 0 TD

Unavailable

Experimental

Josh CameronJAX · WR

1 games played. Projected finish: 469.8 receiving yards · 6.7 receiving TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: unavailable.

Main forecast factors

receiving yards: raises the model score
rushing yards: lowers the model score
passing yards: lowers the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

20 rec yds, 1 TD

Unavailable

Experimental

Ja'Kobi LaneBAL · WR

1 games played. Projected finish: 432 receiving yards · 2.5 receiving TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: unavailable.

Main forecast factors

receiving yards: raises the model score
rushing yards: lowers the model score
passing yards: lowers the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

11 rec yds, 0 TD

Unavailable

Experimental

Malik BensonLV · WR

1 games played. Projected finish: 411 receiving yards · 2.5 receiving TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: unavailable.

Main forecast factors

rushing yards: lowers the model score
receiving yards: raises the model score
passing yards: lowers the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

6 rec yds, 0 TD

Unavailable

Experimental

Barion BrownNO · WR

1 games played. Projected finish: 385.8 receiving yards · 2.5 receiving TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: unavailable.

Main forecast factors

rushing yards: lowers the model score
passing yards: lowers the model score
RB position: lowers the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

3 rush yds, 0 TD

Unavailable

Experimental