The race, week by week

NFL MVP and Awards Tracker

Award forecasts alongside on-field performance. Follow the leaders, see what drives their rankings, and revisit each weekly snapshot.

Updates after completed weekly games

Last updated:

Offensive Rookie of the Year

2026 season · Through week 4

Choose a historical snapshot

2026 · W5 2026 · W4 2026 · W3 2026 · W2 2026 · W1 2026 · W0

Forecast leader

Denzel Boston

CLE · WR

Historical top-three hit rate

50%

6 retrospective validation seasons at this horizon

Forecast status

Experimental

Win percentages withheld pending validation

Race trajectory

Predicted rank by weekly snapshot for the current top 8. Each point is what the board said after that week, not a recomputation; weeks ranked below 25 run off the bottom.

Weekly leaders

Week 1

Caleb Douglas

MIA

Week 2

Denzel Boston

CLE

Week 3

Denzel Boston

CLE

Week 4

Denzel Boston

CLE

Methodology and validation

Each award has a separate regularized model trained on earlier seasons only. Candidates come from statistics available at the selected cutoff. Missing winners count as misses. The model predicts award winners; it does not estimate ballot share.

Remaining-season player totals shrink toward prior-season rates with a four-game prior. Team records use a beta prior. Coach forecasts compare projected wins with a preseason baseline formed from the prior season record. These projections assume continued availability and do not yet model future injury risk. Full-game production informs the award forecast; competitive-drive EPA is a separate performance measure. Awards do not change team ratings.

Historical results use reconstructed source files and a 24-hour result-availability assumption. Previously inspected years are retrospective validation, not a fresh holdout. CPOY training excludes seasons before the 2024 criteria change.

Winner hit rate: 33%. Winner coverage: 100%. Log loss: 2.44. Brier score: 0.74.

Precise probabilities require at least eight validation seasons, complete winner coverage, better log loss than a uniform baseline, and a leader-confidence gap of at most ten percentage points. Until then, rankings remain experimental.

Sources: nflverse player and schedule data, NFL Record and Fact Book, and NFL Honors results.

Rank	Candidate	Season line	Weekly move	Performance rank	Win probability
1	Denzel BostonCLE · WR 4 games played. Projected finish: 926.7 receiving yards · 6.3 receiving TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 0.28. Main forecast factors receiving yards: raises the model score RB position: lowers the model score passing yards: lowers the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	284 rec yds, 2 TD	0	#4	Experimental
2	Carnell TateTEN · WR 4 games played. Projected finish: 884.7 receiving yards · 1.1 receiving TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 0.06. Main forecast factors receiving yards: raises the model score RB position: lowers the model score passing yards: lowers the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	268 rec yds, 0 TD	+6	#12	Experimental
3	Athan KaliakmanisWAS · QB 1 games played. Projected finish: 2,474 passing yards · 15.6 passing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: -0.53. Main forecast factors passing yards: raises the model score receiving yards: lowers the model score interceptions: lowers the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	186 pass yds, 1 TD, 1 INT · 16 rush yds, 0 TD	Unavailable	#49	Experimental
4	Emmett JohnsonKC · RB 4 games played. Projected finish: 325 rushing yards · 1.4 rushing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 0.35. Main forecast factors RB position: raises the model score passing yards: lowers the model score TE position: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	56 rush yds, 0 TD · 74 rec yds, 0 TD	0	#3	Experimental
5	Jeremiyah LoveARI · RB 4 games played. Projected finish: 763.3 rushing yards · 4 rushing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 2.13. Main forecast factors RB position: raises the model score receiving yards: lowers the model score rushing TDs: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	223 rush yds, 1 TD · 36 rec yds, 1 TD	-3	#1	Experimental
6	Jonah ColemanDEN · RB 2 games played. Projected finish: 360.8 rushing yards · 5 rushing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 0.16. Main forecast factors RB position: raises the model score receiving yards: lowers the model score rushing TDs: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	39 rush yds, 1 TD · 19 rec yds, 0 TD	-1	#7	Experimental
7	Jack StrandATL · QB 1 games played. Projected finish: 2,016.8 passing yards · 12 passing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: unavailable. Main forecast factors passing yards: raises the model score receiving yards: lowers the model score interceptions: lowers the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	59 pass yds, 0 TD, 1 INT · 16 rush yds, 0 TD	-4	Unavailable	Experimental
8	KC ConcepcionCLE · WR 4 games played. Projected finish: 559.2 receiving yards · 1.1 receiving TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: -0.29. Main forecast factors receiving yards: raises the model score RB position: lowers the model score passing yards: lowers the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	9 rush yds, 0 TD · 144 rec yds, 0 TD	+16	#48	Experimental
9	Caleb DouglasMIA · WR 2 games played. Projected finish: 599.5 receiving yards · 1.5 receiving TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 0.03. Main forecast factors receiving yards: raises the model score RB position: lowers the model score passing yards: lowers the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	113 rec yds, 0 TD	-3	#17	Experimental
10	Omar Cooper Jr.NYJ · WR 1 games played. Projected finish: 398 receiving yards · 1.8 receiving TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 0.01. Main forecast factors offensive efficiency: raises the model score receiving yards: raises the model score RB position: lowers the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	30 rec yds, 0 TD	+9	#23	Experimental
11	Malachi FieldsNYG · WR 4 games played. Projected finish: 512 receiving yards · 3.7 receiving TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 0.09. Main forecast factors receiving yards: raises the model score RB position: lowers the model score passing yards: lowers the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	126 rec yds, 1 TD	+16	#8	Experimental
12	Dohnte MeyersCIN · WR 4 games played. Projected finish: 519.9 receiving yards · 1.1 receiving TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 0.06. Main forecast factors receiving yards: raises the model score RB position: lowers the model score passing yards: lowers the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	10 rush yds, 0 TD · 129 rec yds, 0 TD	+19	#11	Experimental
13	Mike Washington Jr.LV · RB 4 games played. Projected finish: 493 rushing yards · 4 rushing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 0.24. Main forecast factors receiving yards: lowers the model score RB position: raises the model score rushing TDs: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	120 rush yds, 1 TD	-1	#6	Experimental
14	Antonio WilliamsWAS · WR 4 games played. Projected finish: 506.7 receiving yards · 3.7 receiving TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: -0.02. Main forecast factors receiving yards: raises the model score RB position: lowers the model score passing yards: lowers the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	124 rec yds, 1 TD	-5	#40	Experimental
15	Ted Hurst IIITB · WR 4 games played. Projected finish: 517.2 receiving yards · 3.7 receiving TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 0.03. Main forecast factors receiving yards: raises the model score RB position: lowers the model score passing yards: lowers the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	128 rec yds, 1 TD	-4	#18	Experimental
16	Jadarian PriceSEA · RB 3 games played. Projected finish: 543.4 rushing yards · 1.6 rushing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: -1.11. Main forecast factors RB position: raises the model score receiving yards: lowers the model score passing yards: lowers the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	119 rush yds, 0 TD · 21 rec yds, 0 TD	-2	#50	Experimental
17	Josh CameronJAX · WR 4 games played. Projected finish: 375.5 receiving yards · 6.3 receiving TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 0.05. Main forecast factors receiving yards: raises the model score RB position: lowers the model score passing yards: lowers the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	74 rec yds, 2 TD	+12	#13	Experimental
18	Jalon DanielsTB · QB 2 games played. Projected finish: 1,972.3 passing yards · 13.1 passing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 0.08. Main forecast factors passing yards: raises the model score interceptions: lowers the model score receiving yards: lowers the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	148 pass yds, 1 TD, 3 INT · 64 rush yds, 0 TD	-11	#9	Experimental
19	Kaelon BlackSF · RB 4 games played. Projected finish: 493 rushing yards · 1.4 rushing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 0.73. Main forecast factors receiving yards: lowers the model score RB position: raises the model score passing yards: lowers the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	120 rush yds, 0 TD · 5 rec yds, 0 TD	+4	#2	Experimental
20	Max BredesonMIN · RB 1 games played. Projected finish: 284.7 rushing yards · 2.2 rushing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: unavailable. Main forecast factors receiving yards: lowers the model score RB position: raises the model score passing yards: lowers the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	1 tkl, 0 sacks, 0 INT	-5	Unavailable	Experimental
21	DJ HermanMIA · RB 2 games played. Projected finish: 237.3 rushing yards · 1.8 rushing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 0.00. Main forecast factors RB position: raises the model score receiving yards: lowers the model score passing yards: lowers the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	18 rec yds, 0 TD	-8	#24	Experimental
22	Seth McGowanIND · RB 4 games played. Projected finish: 296.1 rushing yards · 1.4 rushing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 0.28. Main forecast factors receiving yards: lowers the model score RB position: raises the model score passing yards: lowers the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	45 rush yds, 0 TD · 7 rec yds, 0 TD	+4	#5	Experimental
23	Demond ClaiborneMIN · RB 3 games played. Projected finish: 240.5 rushing yards · 1.6 rushing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: -0.07. Main forecast factors receiving yards: lowers the model score RB position: raises the model score passing yards: lowers the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	13 rush yds, 0 TD · 2 rec yds, 0 TD	-1	#44	Experimental
24	Dean ConnorsLA · RB 2 games played. Projected finish: 237.3 rushing yards · 1.8 rushing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: unavailable. Main forecast factors receiving yards: lowers the model score RB position: raises the model score passing yards: lowers the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	–	-8	Unavailable	Experimental
25	Eli HeidenreichPIT · RB 2 games played. Projected finish: 237.3 rushing yards · 1.8 rushing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: unavailable. Main forecast factors receiving yards: lowers the model score RB position: raises the model score passing yards: lowers the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	–	-5	Unavailable	Experimental

Rank

Candidate

Season line

Weekly move

Performance rank

Win probability

Denzel BostonCLE · WR

4 games played. Projected finish: 926.7 receiving yards · 6.3 receiving TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 0.28.

Main forecast factors

receiving yards: raises the model score
RB position: lowers the model score
passing yards: lowers the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

284 rec yds, 2 TD

Experimental

Carnell TateTEN · WR

4 games played. Projected finish: 884.7 receiving yards · 1.1 receiving TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 0.06.

Main forecast factors

receiving yards: raises the model score
RB position: lowers the model score
passing yards: lowers the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

268 rec yds, 0 TD

#12

Experimental

Athan KaliakmanisWAS · QB

1 games played. Projected finish: 2,474 passing yards · 15.6 passing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: -0.53.

Main forecast factors

passing yards: raises the model score
receiving yards: lowers the model score
interceptions: lowers the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

186 pass yds, 1 TD, 1 INT · 16 rush yds, 0 TD

Unavailable

#49

Experimental

Emmett JohnsonKC · RB

4 games played. Projected finish: 325 rushing yards · 1.4 rushing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 0.35.

Main forecast factors

RB position: raises the model score
passing yards: lowers the model score
TE position: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

56 rush yds, 0 TD · 74 rec yds, 0 TD

Experimental

Jeremiyah LoveARI · RB

4 games played. Projected finish: 763.3 rushing yards · 4 rushing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 2.13.

Main forecast factors

RB position: raises the model score
receiving yards: lowers the model score
rushing TDs: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

223 rush yds, 1 TD · 36 rec yds, 1 TD

-3

Experimental

Jonah ColemanDEN · RB

2 games played. Projected finish: 360.8 rushing yards · 5 rushing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 0.16.

Main forecast factors

RB position: raises the model score
receiving yards: lowers the model score
rushing TDs: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

39 rush yds, 1 TD · 19 rec yds, 0 TD

-1

Experimental

Jack StrandATL · QB

1 games played. Projected finish: 2,016.8 passing yards · 12 passing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: unavailable.

Main forecast factors

passing yards: raises the model score
receiving yards: lowers the model score
interceptions: lowers the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

59 pass yds, 0 TD, 1 INT · 16 rush yds, 0 TD

-4

Unavailable

Experimental

KC ConcepcionCLE · WR

4 games played. Projected finish: 559.2 receiving yards · 1.1 receiving TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: -0.29.

Main forecast factors

receiving yards: raises the model score
RB position: lowers the model score
passing yards: lowers the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

9 rush yds, 0 TD · 144 rec yds, 0 TD

+16

#48

Experimental

Caleb DouglasMIA · WR

2 games played. Projected finish: 599.5 receiving yards · 1.5 receiving TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 0.03.

Main forecast factors

receiving yards: raises the model score
RB position: lowers the model score
passing yards: lowers the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

113 rec yds, 0 TD

-3

#17

Experimental

Omar Cooper Jr.NYJ · WR

1 games played. Projected finish: 398 receiving yards · 1.8 receiving TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 0.01.

Main forecast factors

offensive efficiency: raises the model score
receiving yards: raises the model score
RB position: lowers the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

30 rec yds, 0 TD

#23

Experimental

Malachi FieldsNYG · WR

4 games played. Projected finish: 512 receiving yards · 3.7 receiving TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 0.09.

Main forecast factors

receiving yards: raises the model score
RB position: lowers the model score
passing yards: lowers the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

126 rec yds, 1 TD

+16

Experimental

Dohnte MeyersCIN · WR

4 games played. Projected finish: 519.9 receiving yards · 1.1 receiving TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 0.06.

Main forecast factors

receiving yards: raises the model score
RB position: lowers the model score
passing yards: lowers the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

10 rush yds, 0 TD · 129 rec yds, 0 TD

+19

#11

Experimental

Mike Washington Jr.LV · RB

4 games played. Projected finish: 493 rushing yards · 4 rushing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 0.24.

Main forecast factors

receiving yards: lowers the model score
RB position: raises the model score
rushing TDs: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

120 rush yds, 1 TD

-1

Experimental

Antonio WilliamsWAS · WR

4 games played. Projected finish: 506.7 receiving yards · 3.7 receiving TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: -0.02.

Main forecast factors

receiving yards: raises the model score
RB position: lowers the model score
passing yards: lowers the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

124 rec yds, 1 TD

-5

#40

Experimental

Ted Hurst IIITB · WR

4 games played. Projected finish: 517.2 receiving yards · 3.7 receiving TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 0.03.

Main forecast factors

receiving yards: raises the model score
RB position: lowers the model score
passing yards: lowers the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

128 rec yds, 1 TD

-4

#18

Experimental

Jadarian PriceSEA · RB

3 games played. Projected finish: 543.4 rushing yards · 1.6 rushing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: -1.11.

Main forecast factors

RB position: raises the model score
receiving yards: lowers the model score
passing yards: lowers the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

119 rush yds, 0 TD · 21 rec yds, 0 TD

-2

#50

Experimental

Josh CameronJAX · WR

4 games played. Projected finish: 375.5 receiving yards · 6.3 receiving TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 0.05.

Main forecast factors

receiving yards: raises the model score
RB position: lowers the model score
passing yards: lowers the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

74 rec yds, 2 TD

+12

#13

Experimental

Jalon DanielsTB · QB

2 games played. Projected finish: 1,972.3 passing yards · 13.1 passing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 0.08.

Main forecast factors

passing yards: raises the model score
interceptions: lowers the model score
receiving yards: lowers the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

148 pass yds, 1 TD, 3 INT · 64 rush yds, 0 TD

-11

Experimental

Kaelon BlackSF · RB

4 games played. Projected finish: 493 rushing yards · 1.4 rushing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 0.73.

Main forecast factors

receiving yards: lowers the model score
RB position: raises the model score
passing yards: lowers the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

120 rush yds, 0 TD · 5 rec yds, 0 TD

Experimental

Max BredesonMIN · RB

1 games played. Projected finish: 284.7 rushing yards · 2.2 rushing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: unavailable.

Main forecast factors

receiving yards: lowers the model score
RB position: raises the model score
passing yards: lowers the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

1 tkl, 0 sacks, 0 INT

-5

Unavailable

Experimental

DJ HermanMIA · RB

2 games played. Projected finish: 237.3 rushing yards · 1.8 rushing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 0.00.

Main forecast factors

RB position: raises the model score
receiving yards: lowers the model score
passing yards: lowers the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

18 rec yds, 0 TD

-8

#24

Experimental

Seth McGowanIND · RB

4 games played. Projected finish: 296.1 rushing yards · 1.4 rushing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 0.28.

Main forecast factors

receiving yards: lowers the model score
RB position: raises the model score
passing yards: lowers the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

45 rush yds, 0 TD · 7 rec yds, 0 TD

Experimental

Demond ClaiborneMIN · RB

3 games played. Projected finish: 240.5 rushing yards · 1.6 rushing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: -0.07.

Main forecast factors

receiving yards: lowers the model score
RB position: raises the model score
passing yards: lowers the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

13 rush yds, 0 TD · 2 rec yds, 0 TD

-1

#44

Experimental

Dean ConnorsLA · RB

2 games played. Projected finish: 237.3 rushing yards · 1.8 rushing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: unavailable.

Main forecast factors

receiving yards: lowers the model score
RB position: raises the model score
passing yards: lowers the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

–

-8

Unavailable

Experimental

Eli HeidenreichPIT · RB

2 games played. Projected finish: 237.3 rushing yards · 1.8 rushing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: unavailable.

Main forecast factors

receiving yards: lowers the model score
RB position: raises the model score
passing yards: lowers the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

–

-5

Unavailable

Experimental