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Every graded prediction from the historical walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and final margin. Lines are quoted for the home team.
Pick history| Season | Wk | Matchup | Score | Model | Close | Result | Model err |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 8 | BUF @ SEA | 31–10 | +3.7 | +3.0 | +21.0 | 17.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 8 | CAR @ DEN | 14–28 | -12.5 | -13.0 | -14.0 | 1.5 |
| 2024 | 8 | CHI @ WAS | 15–18 | -1.3 | -1.5 | -3.0 | 1.7 |
| 2024 | 8 | DAL @ SF | 24–30 | -7.2 | -5.5 | -6.0 | 1.2 |
| 2024 | 8 |
Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.
| GB @ JAX |
| 30–27 |
| +5.2 |
| +3.5 |
| +3.0 |
| 2.2 |
| 2024 | 8 | IND @ HOU | 20–23 | -4.5 | -5.0 | -3.0 | 1.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 8 | KC @ LV | 27–20 | +8.5 | +9.0 | +7.0 | 1.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 8 | MIN @ LA | 20–30 | +1.8 | +3.0 | -10.0 | 11.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 8 | NO @ LAC | 8–26 | -6.9 | -7.0 | -18.0 | 11.1 |
| 2024 | 8 | NYG @ PIT | 18–26 | -7.0 | -6.0 | -8.0 | 1.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 8 | NYJ @ NE | 22–25 | +7.3 | +7.0 | -3.0 | 10.3 |
| 2024 | 8 | PHI @ CIN | 37–17 | -2.7 | -2.5 | +20.0 | 22.7 |
| 2024 | 8 | TEN @ DET | 14–52 | -11.1 | -12.5 | -38.0 | 26.9 |
| 2024 | 7 | BAL @ TB | 41–31 | +3.7 | +4.5 | +10.0 | 6.3 |
| 2024 | 7 | CAR @ WAS | 7–40 | -9.4 | -10.0 | -33.0 | 23.6 |
| 2024 | 7 | CIN @ CLE | 21–14 | +4.5 | +5.5 | +7.0 | 2.5 |
| 2024 | 7 | DEN @ NO | 33–10 | -0.6 | +2.5 | +23.0 | 23.6 |
| 2024 | 7 | DET @ MIN | 31–29 | +0.5 | -1.0 | +2.0 | 1.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 7 | HOU @ GB | 22–24 | -4.0 | -3.0 | -2.0 | 2.0 |
| 2024 | 7 | KC @ SF | 28–18 | -2.6 | -2.5 | +10.0 | 12.6 |
| 2024 | 7 | LAC @ ARI | 15–17 | +2.1 | +1.0 | -2.0 | 4.1 |
| 2024 | 7 | LV @ LA | 15–20 | -6.1 | -7.0 | -5.0 | 1.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 7 | MIA @ IND | 10–16 | -3.2 | -3.0 | -6.0 | 2.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 7 | NE vs JAX | 16–32 | -5.1 | -6.5 | -16.0 | 10.9 |
| 2024 | 7 | NYJ @ PIT | 15–37 | +0.3 | +3.0 | -22.0 | 22.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 7 | PHI @ NYG | 28–3 | +2.6 | +3.0 | +25.0 | 22.4 |
| 2024 | 7 | SEA @ ATL | 34–14 | -3.8 | -3.0 | +20.0 | 23.8 |
| 2024 | 7 | TEN @ BUF | 10–34 | -9.3 | -9.5 | -24.0 | 14.7 |
| 2024 | 6 | ARI @ GB | 13–34 | -6.8 | -5.5 | -21.0 | 14.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 6 | ATL @ CAR | 38–20 | +5.5 | +6.0 | +18.0 | 12.5 |
| 2024 | 6 | BUF @ NYJ | 23–20 | +1.5 | +1.0 | +3.0 | 1.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 6 | CIN @ NYG | 17–7 | +3.9 | +4.5 | +10.0 | 6.1 |
| 2024 | 6 | CLE @ PHI | 16–20 | -6.4 | -8.0 | -4.0 | 2.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 6 | DET @ DAL | 47–9 | +2.3 | +3.5 | +38.0 | 35.7 |
| 2024 | 6 | HOU @ NE | 41–21 | +6.3 | +6.5 | +20.0 | 13.7 |
| 2024 | 6 | IND @ TEN | 20–17 | -0.7 | -2.5 | +3.0 | 3.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 6 | JAX vs CHI | 16–35 | -1.6 | +1.5 | -19.0 | 17.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 6 | LAC @ DEN | 23–16 | +1.5 | +3.0 | +7.0 | 5.5 |
| 2024 | 6 | PIT @ LV | 32–13 | +2.6 | +3.5 | +19.0 | 16.4 |
| 2024 | 6 | SF @ SEA | 36–24 | +4.4 | +3.5 | +12.0 | 7.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 6 | TB @ NO | 51–27 | +0.6 | +3.5 | +24.0 | 23.4 |
| 2024 | 6 | WAS @ BAL | 23–30 | -7.6 | -6.5 | -7.0 | 0.6 |
| 2024 | 5 | ARI @ SF | 24–23 | -9.3 | -7.0 | +1.0 | 10.3 |
| 2024 | 5 | BAL @ CIN | 41–38 | +2.8 | +2.5 | +3.0 | 0.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 5 | BUF @ HOU | 20–23 | +0.9 | -1.0 | -3.0 | 3.9 |
| 2024 | 5 | CAR @ CHI | 10–36 | -5.6 | -4.0 | -26.0 | 20.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 5 | CLE @ WAS | 13–34 | -2.6 | -3.0 | -21.0 | 18.4 |
| 2024 | 5 | DAL @ PIT | 20–17 | -2.8 | -2.5 | +3.0 | 5.8 |
| 2024 | 5 | GB @ LA | 24–19 | +3.0 | +3.0 | +5.0 | 2.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 5 | IND @ JAX | 34–37 | -0.9 | -3.5 | -3.0 | 2.1 |