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Every graded prediction from the historical walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and final margin. Lines are quoted for the home team.
Pick history| Season | Wk | Matchup | Score | Model | Close | Result | Model err |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 5 | LV @ DEN | 18–34 | -2.7 | -3.0 | -16.0 | 13.3 |
| 2024 | 5 | MIA @ NE | 15–10 | +2.8 | +2.0 | +5.0 | 2.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 5 | NO @ KC | 13–26 | -4.5 | -5.5 | -13.0 | 8.5 |
| 2024 | 5 | NYG @ SEA | 29–20 | -6.1 | -7.0 | +9.0 | 15.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 5 |
Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.
| NYJ vs MIN |
| 17–23 |
| -1.8 |
| -2.5 |
| -6.0 |
| 4.2 |
| 2024 | 5 | TB @ ATL | 30–36 | -1.9 | -2.5 | -6.0 | 4.1 |
| 2024 | 4 | BUF @ BAL | 10–35 | -0.9 | -2.5 | -25.0 | 24.1 |
| 2024 | 4 | CIN @ CAR | 34–24 | +4.1 | +4.5 | +10.0 | 5.9 |
| 2024 | 4 | CLE @ LV | 16–20 | +0.6 | +2.5 | -4.0 | 4.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 4 | DAL @ NYG | 20–15 | +3.2 | +5.5 | +5.0 | 1.8 |
| 2024 | 4 | DEN @ NYJ | 10–9 | -6.7 | -7.5 | +1.0 | 7.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 4 | JAX @ HOU | 20–24 | -5.7 | -5.5 | -4.0 | 1.7 |
| 2024 | 4 | KC @ LAC | 17–10 | +4.6 | +7.5 | +7.0 | 2.4 |
| 2024 | 4 | LA @ CHI | 18–24 | -2.9 | -3.0 | -6.0 | 3.1 |
| 2024 | 4 | MIN @ GB | 31–29 | -3.7 | -2.5 | +2.0 | 5.7 |
| 2024 | 4 | NE @ SF | 13–30 | -11.9 | -10.5 | -17.0 | 5.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 4 | NO @ ATL | 24–26 | -0.5 | -2.5 | -2.0 | 1.5 |
| 2024 | 4 | PHI @ TB | 16–33 | +0.9 | +1.0 | -17.0 | 17.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 4 | PIT @ IND | 24–27 | +1.0 | +2.5 | -3.0 | 4.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 4 | SEA @ DET | 29–42 | -4.3 | -3.5 | -13.0 | 8.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 4 | TEN @ MIA | 31–12 | -3.7 | -2.5 | +19.0 | 22.7 |
| 2024 | 4 | WAS @ ARI | 42–14 | -4.3 | -3.5 | +28.0 | 32.3 |
| 2024 | 3 | BAL @ DAL | 28–25 | +1.8 | +1.5 | +3.0 | 1.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 3 | CAR @ LV | 36–22 | -6.9 | -5.5 | +14.0 | 20.9 |
| 2024 | 3 | CHI @ IND | 16–21 | -1.4 | -1.5 | -5.0 | 3.6 |
| 2024 | 3 | DEN @ TB | 26–7 | -6.0 | -6.0 | +19.0 | 25.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 3 | DET @ ARI | 20–13 | +1.5 | +3.0 | +7.0 | 5.5 |
| 2024 | 3 | GB @ TEN | 30–14 | +0.4 | -3.0 | +16.0 | 15.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 3 | HOU @ MIN | 7–34 | +0.5 | +2.0 | -27.0 | 27.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 3 | JAX @ BUF | 10–47 | -5.8 | -4.0 | -37.0 | 31.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 3 | KC @ ATL | 22–17 | +2.5 | +3.0 | +5.0 | 2.5 |
| 2024 | 3 | LAC @ PIT | 10–20 | -2.1 | -3.0 | -10.0 | 7.9 |
| 2024 | 3 | MIA @ SEA | 3–24 | -2.1 | -4.0 | -21.0 | 18.9 |
| 2024 | 3 | NE @ NYJ | 3–24 | -5.7 | -6.5 | -21.0 | 15.3 |
| 2024 | 3 | NYG @ CLE | 21–15 | -6.2 | -6.5 | +6.0 | 12.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 3 | PHI @ NO | 15–12 | -4.6 | -2.5 | +3.0 | 7.6 |
| 2024 | 3 | SF @ LA | 24–27 | +5.6 | +6.0 | -3.0 | 8.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 3 | WAS @ CIN | 38–33 | -7.7 | -7.5 | +5.0 | 12.7 |
| 2024 | 2 | ATL @ PHI | 22–21 | -4.4 | -5.5 | +1.0 | 5.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 2 | BUF @ MIA | 31–10 | -2.0 | -2.5 | +21.0 | 23.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 2 | CHI @ HOU | 13–19 | -4.7 | -6.0 | -6.0 | 1.3 |
| 2024 | 2 | CIN @ KC | 25–26 | -6.2 | -6.5 | -1.0 | 5.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 2 | CLE @ JAX | 18–13 | -3.3 | -3.0 | +5.0 | 8.3 |
| 2024 | 2 | IND @ GB | 10–16 | -1.7 | +3.0 | -6.0 | 4.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 2 | LA @ ARI | 10–41 | +1.1 | +1.0 | -31.0 | 32.1 |
| 2024 | 2 | LAC @ CAR | 26–3 | +5.4 | +5.0 | +23.0 | 17.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 2 | LV @ BAL | 26–23 | -8.4 | -9.0 | +3.0 | 11.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 2 | NO @ DAL | 44–19 | -4.6 | -6.5 | +25.0 | 29.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 2 | NYG @ WAS | 18–21 | -2.5 | -1.5 | -3.0 | 0.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 2 | NYJ @ TEN | 24–17 | +1.3 | +3.5 | +7.0 | 5.7 |