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Every graded prediction from the historical walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and final margin. Lines are quoted for the home team.
Pick history| Season | Wk | Matchup | Score | Model | Close | Result | Model err |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 2 | PIT @ DEN | 13–6 | +2.9 | +3.0 | +7.0 | 4.1 |
| 2024 | 2 | SEA @ NE | 23–20 | +1.9 | +3.5 | +3.0 | 1.1 |
| 2024 | 2 | SF @ MIN | 17–23 | +3.5 | +4.5 | -6.0 | 9.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 2 | TB @ DET | 20–16 | -6.3 | -7.5 | +4.0 | 10.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 1 |
Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.
| ARI @ BUF |
| 28–34 |
| -6.9 |
| -6.5 |
| -6.0 |
| 0.9 |
| 2024 | 1 | BAL @ KC | 20–27 | -2.8 | -3.0 | -7.0 | 4.2 |
| 2024 | 1 | CAR @ NO | 10–47 | -4.9 | -3.5 | -37.0 | 32.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 1 | DAL @ CLE | 33–17 | -1.2 | -2.5 | +16.0 | 17.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 1 | DEN @ SEA | 20–26 | -5.3 | -6.5 | -6.0 | 0.7 |
| 2024 | 1 | GB vs PHI | 29–34 | +0.4 | -2.0 | -5.0 | 5.4 |
| 2024 | 1 | HOU @ IND | 29–27 | +1.0 | +3.0 | +2.0 | 1.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 1 | JAX @ MIA | 17–20 | -4.0 | -3.5 | -3.0 | 1.0 |
| 2024 | 1 | LA @ DET | 20–26 | -4.5 | -5.0 | -6.0 | 1.5 |
| 2024 | 1 | LV @ LAC | 10–22 | -2.9 | -3.0 | -12.0 | 9.1 |
| 2024 | 1 | MIN @ NYG | 28–6 | -0.3 | +1.0 | +22.0 | 22.3 |
| 2024 | 1 | NE @ CIN | 16–10 | -8.7 | -8.0 | +6.0 | 14.7 |
| 2024 | 1 | NYJ @ SF | 19–32 | -5.7 | -3.5 | -13.0 | 7.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 1 | PIT @ ATL | 18–10 | -2.9 | -4.0 | +8.0 | 10.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 1 | TEN @ CHI | 17–24 | -4.5 | -4.0 | -7.0 | 2.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 1 | WAS @ TB | 20–37 | -5.0 | -4.0 | -17.0 | 12.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 22 | SF vs KC | 22–25 | +1.0 | +1.5 | -3.0 | 4.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 21 | DET @ SF | 31–34 | -7.6 | -7.5 | -3.0 | 4.6 |
| 2023 | 21 | KC @ BAL | 17–10 | -3.4 | -4.5 | +7.0 | 10.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 20 | GB @ SF | 21–24 | -6.7 | -10.5 | -3.0 | 3.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 20 | HOU @ BAL | 10–34 | -9.3 | -10.0 | -24.0 | 14.7 |
| 2023 | 20 | KC @ BUF | 27–24 | -2.0 | -2.5 | +3.0 | 5.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 20 | TB @ DET | 23–31 | -5.9 | -6.0 | -8.0 | 2.1 |
| 2023 | 19 | CLE @ HOU | 14–45 | +1.2 | +2.5 | -31.0 | 32.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 19 | GB @ DAL | 48–32 | -7.1 | -7.0 | +16.0 | 23.1 |
| 2023 | 19 | LA @ DET | 23–24 | -4.3 | -3.5 | -1.0 | 3.3 |
| 2023 | 19 | MIA @ KC | 7–26 | -3.3 | -4.5 | -19.0 | 15.7 |
| 2023 | 19 | PHI @ TB | 9–32 | +1.7 | +2.5 | -23.0 | 24.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 19 | PIT @ BUF | 17–31 | -7.4 | -10.0 | -14.0 | 6.6 |
| 2023 | 18 | ATL @ NO | 17–48 | -4.3 | -3.5 | -31.0 | 26.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 18 | BUF @ MIA | 21–14 | +0.8 | +2.5 | +7.0 | 6.2 |
| 2023 | 18 | CHI @ GB | 9–17 | -3.1 | -2.5 | -8.0 | 4.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 18 | CLE @ CIN | 14–31 | -3.9 | -7.5 | -17.0 | 13.1 |
| 2023 | 18 | DAL @ WAS | 38–10 | +11.8 | +13.0 | +28.0 | 16.2 |
| 2023 | 18 | DEN @ LV | 14–27 | -3.1 | -3.5 | -13.0 | 9.9 |
| 2023 | 18 | HOU @ IND | 23–19 | -0.0 | +1.5 | +4.0 | 4.0 |
| 2023 | 18 | JAX @ TEN | 20–28 | +2.8 | +3.5 | -8.0 | 10.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 18 | KC @ LAC | 13–12 | -0.6 | -3.5 | +1.0 | 1.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 18 | LA @ SF | 21–20 | -9.0 | -5.5 | +1.0 | 10.0 |
| 2023 | 18 | MIN @ DET | 20–30 | -5.1 | -3.5 | -10.0 | 4.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 18 | NYJ @ NE | 17–3 | -3.1 | -2.5 | +14.0 | 17.1 |
| 2023 | 18 | PHI @ NYG | 10–27 | +5.2 | +4.5 | -17.0 | 22.2 |
| 2023 | 18 | PIT @ BAL | 17–10 | -1.5 | +3.0 | +7.0 | 8.5 |
| 2023 | 18 | SEA @ ARI | 21–20 | +2.7 | +2.5 | +1.0 | 1.7 |
| 2023 | 18 | TB @ CAR | 9–0 | +2.8 | +5.0 | +9.0 | 6.2 |
| 2023 | 17 | ARI @ PHI | 35–31 | -12.3 | -12.0 | +4.0 | 16.3 |