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Every graded prediction from the historical walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and final margin. Lines are quoted for the home team.
Pick history| Season | Wk | Matchup | Score | Model | Close | Result | Model err |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 17 | ATL @ CHI | 17–37 | -2.0 | -3.0 | -20.0 | 18.0 |
| 2023 | 17 | CAR @ JAX | 0–26 | -4.0 | -3.5 | -26.0 | 22.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 17 | CIN @ KC | 17–25 | -7.4 | -7.5 | -8.0 | 0.6 |
| 2023 | 17 | DET @ DAL | 19–20 | -6.0 | -5.5 | -1.0 | 5.0 |
| 2023 | 17 |
Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.
| GB @ MIN |
| 33–10 |
| -2.0 |
| -1.0 |
| +23.0 |
| 25.0 |
| 2023 | 17 | LA @ NYG | 26–25 | +5.3 | +6.0 | +1.0 | 4.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 17 | LAC @ DEN | 9–16 | -2.7 | -3.5 | -7.0 | 4.3 |
| 2023 | 17 | LV @ IND | 20–23 | -1.6 | -3.5 | -3.0 | 1.4 |
| 2023 | 17 | MIA @ BAL | 19–56 | -2.8 | -3.0 | -37.0 | 34.2 |
| 2023 | 17 | NE @ BUF | 21–27 | -12.5 | -15.0 | -6.0 | 6.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 17 | NO @ TB | 23–13 | -1.8 | -2.5 | +10.0 | 11.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 17 | NYJ @ CLE | 20–37 | -6.6 | -6.5 | -17.0 | 10.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 17 | PIT @ SEA | 30–23 | -2.4 | -4.5 | +7.0 | 9.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 17 | SF @ WAS | 27–10 | +13.1 | +14.0 | +17.0 | 3.9 |
| 2023 | 17 | TEN @ HOU | 3–26 | -2.1 | -5.0 | -23.0 | 20.9 |
| 2023 | 16 | ARI @ CHI | 16–27 | -5.8 | -4.5 | -11.0 | 5.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 16 | BAL @ SF | 33–19 | -6.2 | -6.5 | +14.0 | 20.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 16 | BUF @ LAC | 24–22 | +9.9 | +13.0 | +2.0 | 7.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 16 | CIN @ PIT | 11–34 | +2.6 | +3.0 | -23.0 | 25.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 16 | CLE @ HOU | 36–22 | +2.6 | +3.0 | +14.0 | 11.4 |
| 2023 | 16 | DAL @ MIA | 20–22 | -1.5 | -1.5 | -2.0 | 0.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 16 | DET @ MIN | 30–24 | +0.5 | +2.5 | +6.0 | 5.5 |
| 2023 | 16 | GB @ CAR | 33–30 | +2.9 | +3.5 | +3.0 | 0.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 16 | IND @ ATL | 10–29 | -2.7 | -3.0 | -19.0 | 16.3 |
| 2023 | 16 | JAX @ TB | 12–30 | +1.9 | +2.0 | -18.0 | 19.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 16 | LV @ KC | 20–14 | -10.0 | -11.0 | +6.0 | 16.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 16 | NE @ DEN | 26–23 | -5.0 | -7.0 | +3.0 | 8.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 16 | NO @ LA | 22–30 | -2.0 | -4.0 | -8.0 | 6.0 |
| 2023 | 16 | NYG @ PHI | 25–33 | -12.7 | -14.0 | -8.0 | 4.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 16 | SEA @ TEN | 20–17 | +1.4 | +3.0 | +3.0 | 1.6 |
| 2023 | 16 | WAS @ NYJ | 28–30 | -4.1 | -3.0 | -2.0 | 2.1 |
| 2023 | 15 | ATL @ CAR | 7–9 | +2.6 | +3.0 | -2.0 | 4.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 15 | BAL @ JAX | 23–7 | +3.2 | +4.0 | +16.0 | 12.8 |
| 2023 | 15 | CHI @ CLE | 17–20 | -3.4 | -3.0 | -3.0 | 0.4 |
| 2023 | 15 | DAL @ BUF | 10–31 | +0.5 | -2.0 | -21.0 | 21.5 |
| 2023 | 15 | DEN @ DET | 17–42 | -3.1 | -5.5 | -25.0 | 21.9 |
| 2023 | 15 | HOU @ TEN | 19–16 | -3.7 | -3.0 | +3.0 | 6.7 |
| 2023 | 15 | KC @ NE | 27–17 | +8.2 | +10.0 | +10.0 | 1.8 |
| 2023 | 15 | LAC @ LV | 21–63 | -0.2 | -3.0 | -42.0 | 41.8 |
| 2023 | 15 | MIN @ CIN | 24–27 | -3.5 | -3.0 | -3.0 | 0.5 |
| 2023 | 15 | NYG @ NO | 6–24 | -6.5 | -6.0 | -18.0 | 11.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 15 | NYJ @ MIA | 0–30 | -8.2 | -7.5 | -30.0 | 21.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 15 | PHI @ SEA | 17–20 | +3.7 | +5.0 | -3.0 | 6.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 15 | PIT @ IND | 13–30 | -0.4 | -1.5 | -17.0 | 16.6 |
| 2023 | 15 | SF @ ARI | 45–29 | +13.0 | +12.5 | +16.0 | 3.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 15 | TB @ GB | 34–20 | -5.0 | -4.0 | +14.0 | 19.0 |
| 2023 | 15 | WAS @ LA | 20–28 | -6.4 | -6.5 | -8.0 | 1.6 |
| 2023 | 14 | BUF @ KC | 20–17 | -2.4 | -2.0 | +3.0 | 5.4 |
| 2023 | 14 | CAR @ NO | 6–28 | -6.1 | -5.5 | -22.0 | 15.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 14 | DEN @ LAC | 24–7 | -3.8 | -3.0 | +17.0 | 20.8 |