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Every graded prediction from the historical walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and final margin. Lines are quoted for the home team.
Pick history| Season | Wk | Matchup | Score | Model | Close | Result | Model err |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 14 | DET @ CHI | 13–28 | +2.2 | +3.0 | -15.0 | 17.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 14 | GB @ NYG | 22–24 | +6.0 | +6.0 | -2.0 | 8.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 14 | HOU @ NYJ | 6–30 | +1.5 | +3.5 | -24.0 | 25.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 14 | IND @ CIN | 14–34 | -4.7 | -3.0 | -20.0 | 15.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.
| 2023 | 14 | JAX @ CLE | 27–31 | -1.1 | -2.5 | -4.0 | 2.9 |
| 2023 | 14 | LA @ BAL | 31–37 | -8.3 | -7.5 | -6.0 | 2.3 |
| 2023 | 14 | MIN @ LV | 3–0 | +2.3 | +3.0 | +3.0 | 0.7 |
| 2023 | 14 | NE @ PIT | 21–18 | -5.7 | -6.0 | +3.0 | 8.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 14 | PHI @ DAL | 13–33 | -4.5 | -3.5 | -20.0 | 15.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 14 | SEA @ SF | 16–28 | -13.0 | -14.5 | -12.0 | 1.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 14 | TB @ ATL | 29–25 | -2.7 | -1.5 | +4.0 | 6.7 |
| 2023 | 14 | TEN @ MIA | 28–27 | -12.4 | -14.0 | +1.0 | 13.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 13 | ARI @ PIT | 24–10 | -7.9 | -6.0 | +14.0 | 21.9 |
| 2023 | 13 | ATL @ NYJ | 13–8 | +0.7 | +2.0 | +5.0 | 4.3 |
| 2023 | 13 | CAR @ TB | 18–21 | -4.0 | -4.0 | -3.0 | 1.0 |
| 2023 | 13 | CIN @ JAX | 34–31 | -6.4 | -10.0 | +3.0 | 9.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 13 | CLE @ LA | 19–36 | -1.6 | -3.5 | -17.0 | 15.4 |
| 2023 | 13 | DEN @ HOU | 17–22 | -1.9 | -3.5 | -5.0 | 3.1 |
| 2023 | 13 | DET @ NO | 33–28 | +0.7 | +4.0 | +5.0 | 4.3 |
| 2023 | 13 | IND @ TEN | 31–28 | +0.2 | +1.5 | +3.0 | 2.8 |
| 2023 | 13 | KC @ GB | 19–27 | +4.9 | +5.5 | -8.0 | 12.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 13 | LAC @ NE | 6–0 | +4.0 | +4.5 | +6.0 | 2.0 |
| 2023 | 13 | MIA @ WAS | 45–15 | +7.6 | +8.5 | +30.0 | 22.4 |
| 2023 | 13 | SEA @ DAL | 35–41 | -10.6 | -9.5 | -6.0 | 4.6 |
| 2023 | 13 | SF @ PHI | 42–19 | +1.8 | +3.0 | +23.0 | 21.2 |
| 2023 | 12 | BAL @ LAC | 20–10 | +2.5 | +3.0 | +10.0 | 7.5 |
| 2023 | 12 | BUF @ PHI | 34–37 | -3.3 | -2.5 | -3.0 | 0.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 12 | CAR @ TEN | 10–17 | -4.1 | -3.5 | -7.0 | 2.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 12 | CHI @ MIN | 12–10 | -4.7 | -3.0 | +2.0 | 6.7 |
| 2023 | 12 | CLE @ DEN | 12–29 | -0.4 | -1.5 | -17.0 | 16.6 |
| 2023 | 12 | GB @ DET | 29–22 | -6.5 | -8.5 | +7.0 | 13.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 12 | JAX @ HOU | 24–21 | +1.7 | +1.0 | +3.0 | 1.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 12 | KC @ LV | 31–17 | +8.4 | +9.0 | +14.0 | 5.6 |
| 2023 | 12 | LA @ ARI | 37–14 | +1.7 | +3.0 | +23.0 | 21.3 |
| 2023 | 12 | MIA @ NYJ | 34–13 | +6.0 | +9.5 | +21.0 | 15.0 |
| 2023 | 12 | NE @ NYG | 7–10 | +3.0 | +4.5 | -3.0 | 6.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 12 | NO @ ATL | 15–24 | +1.4 | +2.0 | -9.0 | 10.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 12 | PIT @ CIN | 16–10 | -0.2 | +2.0 | +6.0 | 6.2 |
| 2023 | 12 | SF @ SEA | 31–13 | +6.2 | +7.0 | +18.0 | 11.8 |
| 2023 | 12 | TB @ IND | 20–27 | -2.6 | -2.5 | -7.0 | 4.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 12 | WAS @ DAL | 10–45 | -13.8 | -13.0 | -35.0 | 21.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 11 | ARI @ HOU | 16–21 | -5.8 | -5.5 | -5.0 | 0.8 |
| 2023 | 11 | CHI @ DET | 26–31 | -7.4 | -8.0 | -5.0 | 2.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 11 | CIN @ BAL | 20–34 | -4.7 | -4.0 | -14.0 | 9.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 11 | DAL @ CAR | 33–10 | +11.3 | +11.0 | +23.0 | 11.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 11 | LAC @ GB | 20–23 | +2.7 | +3.0 | -3.0 | 5.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 11 | LV @ MIA | 13–20 | -11.1 | -14.0 | -7.0 | 4.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 11 | MIN @ DEN | 20–21 | -0.8 | -2.5 | -1.0 | 0.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 11 | NYG @ WAS | 31–19 | -7.4 | -7.5 | +12.0 | 19.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 11 | NYJ @ BUF | 6–32 | -6.9 | -8.0 | -26.0 | 19.1 |