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Every graded prediction from the historical walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and final margin. Lines are quoted for the home team.
Pick history| Season | Wk | Matchup | Score | Model | Close | Result | Model err |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 11 | PHI @ KC | 21–17 | -2.6 | -2.5 | +4.0 | 6.6 |
| 2023 | 11 | PIT @ CLE | 10–13 | -3.4 | -2.5 | -3.0 | 0.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 11 | SEA @ LA | 16–17 | +0.1 | -2.5 | -1.0 | 1.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 11 | TB @ SF | 14–27 | -12.8 | -13.5 | -13.0 | 0.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 |
Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.
| 11 |
| TEN @ JAX |
| 14–34 |
| -5.6 |
| -6.5 |
| -20.0 |
| 14.4 |
| 2023 | 10 | ATL @ ARI | 23–25 | +2.7 | +2.0 | -2.0 | 4.7 |
| 2023 | 10 | CAR @ CHI | 13–16 | -3.9 | -3.0 | -3.0 | 0.9 |
| 2023 | 10 | CLE @ BAL | 33–31 | -7.4 | -6.0 | +2.0 | 9.4 |
| 2023 | 10 | DEN @ BUF | 24–22 | -7.9 | -7.5 | +2.0 | 9.9 |
| 2023 | 10 | DET @ LAC | 41–38 | -1.3 | +2.5 | +3.0 | 4.3 |
| 2023 | 10 | GB @ PIT | 19–23 | -3.4 | -3.0 | -4.0 | 0.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 10 | HOU @ CIN | 30–27 | -6.7 | -5.5 | +3.0 | 9.7 |
| 2023 | 10 | IND vs NE | 10–6 | +1.0 | +1.0 | +4.0 | 3.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 10 | NO @ MIN | 19–27 | +0.5 | +3.0 | -8.0 | 8.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 10 | NYG @ DAL | 17–49 | -16.6 | -17.5 | -32.0 | 15.4 |
| 2023 | 10 | NYJ @ LV | 12–16 | +0.7 | +1.0 | -4.0 | 4.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 10 | SF @ JAX | 34–3 | +2.0 | +3.0 | +31.0 | 29.0 |
| 2023 | 10 | TEN @ TB | 6–20 | -1.0 | -2.5 | -14.0 | 13.0 |
| 2023 | 10 | WAS @ SEA | 26–29 | -5.8 | -6.0 | -3.0 | 2.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 9 | ARI @ CLE | 0–27 | -10.5 | -13.0 | -27.0 | 16.5 |
| 2023 | 9 | BUF @ CIN | 18–24 | -1.2 | -1.5 | -6.0 | 4.8 |
| 2023 | 9 | CHI @ NO | 17–24 | -8.4 | -9.0 | -7.0 | 1.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 9 | DAL @ PHI | 23–28 | -2.1 | -3.5 | -5.0 | 2.9 |
| 2023 | 9 | IND @ CAR | 27–13 | +0.2 | +1.5 | +14.0 | 13.8 |
| 2023 | 9 | LA @ GB | 3–20 | -2.7 | -3.5 | -17.0 | 14.3 |
| 2023 | 9 | LAC @ NYJ | 27–6 | +1.9 | +3.0 | +21.0 | 19.1 |
| 2023 | 9 | MIA vs KC | 14–21 | -2.0 | -1.0 | -7.0 | 5.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 9 | MIN @ ATL | 31–28 | -1.0 | -3.5 | +3.0 | 4.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 9 | NYG @ LV | 6–30 | -1.6 | -1.0 | -24.0 | 22.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 9 | SEA @ BAL | 3–37 | -7.2 | -6.0 | -34.0 | 26.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 9 | TB @ HOU | 37–39 | -2.9 | -2.5 | -2.0 | 0.9 |
| 2023 | 9 | TEN @ PIT | 16–20 | -3.0 | -3.5 | -4.0 | 1.0 |
| 2023 | 9 | WAS @ NE | 20–17 | -2.4 | -2.5 | +3.0 | 5.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 8 | ATL @ TEN | 23–28 | +0.4 | +2.5 | -5.0 | 5.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 8 | BAL @ ARI | 31–24 | +10.4 | +9.5 | +7.0 | 3.4 |
| 2023 | 8 | CHI @ LAC | 13–30 | -7.7 | -9.5 | -17.0 | 9.3 |
| 2023 | 8 | CIN @ SF | 31–17 | -5.4 | -4.0 | +14.0 | 19.4 |
| 2023 | 8 | CLE @ SEA | 20–24 | -3.8 | -4.0 | -4.0 | 0.2 |
| 2023 | 8 | HOU @ CAR | 13–15 | +1.9 | +3.0 | -2.0 | 3.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 8 | JAX @ PIT | 20–10 | +1.2 | +2.5 | +10.0 | 8.8 |
| 2023 | 8 | KC @ DEN | 9–24 | +8.3 | +7.0 | -15.0 | 23.3 |
| 2023 | 8 | LA @ DAL | 20–43 | -7.0 | -6.5 | -23.0 | 16.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 8 | LV @ DET | 14–26 | -7.6 | -7.0 | -12.0 | 4.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 8 | MIN @ GB | 24–10 | +0.1 | +1.0 | +14.0 | 13.9 |
| 2023 | 8 | NE @ MIA | 17–31 | -8.4 | -7.5 | -14.0 | 5.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 8 | NO @ IND | 38–27 | +2.1 | +2.0 | +11.0 | 8.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 8 | NYJ @ NYG | 13–10 | +3.0 | +3.0 | +3.0 | 0.0 |
| 2023 | 8 | PHI @ WAS | 38–31 | +7.7 | +7.0 | +7.0 | 0.7 |
| 2023 | 8 | TB @ BUF | 18–24 | -10.1 | -10.0 | -6.0 | 4.1 |
| 2023 | 7 | ARI @ SEA | 10–20 | -9.0 | -9.5 | -10.0 | 1.0 |