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Every graded prediction from the historical walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and final margin. Lines are quoted for the home team.
Pick history| Season | Wk | Matchup | Score | Model | Close | Result | Model err |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 7 | ATL @ TB | 16–13 | -2.1 | -3.0 | +3.0 | 5.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 7 | BUF @ NE | 25–29 | +7.7 | +7.5 | -4.0 | 11.7 |
| 2023 | 7 | CLE @ IND | 39–38 | +2.8 | +3.5 | +1.0 | 1.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 7 | DET @ BAL | 6–38 | -1.5 | -3.0 | -32.0 | 30.5 |
| 2023 | 7 |
Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.
| GB @ DEN |
| 17–19 |
| -0.1 |
| -1.5 |
| -2.0 |
| 1.9 |
| 2023 | 7 | JAX @ NO | 31–24 | -1.9 | -2.5 | +7.0 | 8.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 7 | LAC @ KC | 17–31 | -6.6 | -5.5 | -14.0 | 7.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 7 | LV @ CHI | 12–30 | +0.6 | +2.5 | -18.0 | 18.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 7 | MIA @ PHI | 17–31 | -3.1 | -3.0 | -14.0 | 10.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 7 | PIT @ LA | 24–17 | -3.0 | -3.5 | +7.0 | 10.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 7 | SF @ MIN | 17–22 | +7.1 | +7.0 | -5.0 | 12.1 |
| 2023 | 7 | WAS @ NYG | 7–14 | +1.8 | +3.0 | -7.0 | 8.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 6 | ARI @ LA | 9–26 | -6.5 | -7.0 | -17.0 | 10.5 |
| 2023 | 6 | BAL vs TEN | 24–16 | +4.9 | +5.5 | +8.0 | 3.1 |
| 2023 | 6 | CAR @ MIA | 21–42 | -11.7 | -14.0 | -21.0 | 9.3 |
| 2023 | 6 | DAL @ LAC | 20–17 | +1.6 | +1.5 | +3.0 | 1.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 6 | DEN @ KC | 8–19 | -11.9 | -10.5 | -11.0 | 0.9 |
| 2023 | 6 | DET @ TB | 20–6 | +4.1 | +3.0 | +14.0 | 9.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 6 | IND @ JAX | 20–37 | -4.7 | -4.0 | -17.0 | 12.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 6 | MIN @ CHI | 19–13 | +2.4 | +3.0 | +6.0 | 3.6 |
| 2023 | 6 | NE @ LV | 17–21 | -3.0 | -3.0 | -4.0 | 1.0 |
| 2023 | 6 | NO @ HOU | 13–20 | +2.2 | +2.0 | -7.0 | 9.2 |
| 2023 | 6 | NYG @ BUF | 9–14 | -14.4 | -15.5 | -5.0 | 9.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 6 | PHI @ NYJ | 14–20 | +5.7 | +6.5 | -6.0 | 11.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 6 | SEA @ CIN | 13–17 | -2.4 | -3.0 | -4.0 | 1.6 |
| 2023 | 6 | SF @ CLE | 17–19 | +8.6 | +9.5 | -2.0 | 10.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 6 | WAS @ ATL | 24–16 | -2.8 | -1.5 | +8.0 | 10.8 |
| 2023 | 5 | BAL @ PIT | 10–17 | +4.2 | +4.5 | -7.0 | 11.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 5 | CAR @ DET | 24–42 | -8.8 | -9.5 | -18.0 | 9.2 |
| 2023 | 5 | CHI @ WAS | 40–20 | -6.2 | -6.0 | +20.0 | 26.2 |
| 2023 | 5 | CIN @ ARI | 34–20 | +3.2 | +3.0 | +14.0 | 10.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 5 | DAL @ SF | 10–42 | -2.8 | -3.5 | -32.0 | 29.2 |
| 2023 | 5 | GB @ LV | 13–17 | +0.6 | -1.0 | -4.0 | 4.6 |
| 2023 | 5 | HOU @ ATL | 19–21 | -2.1 | -2.5 | -2.0 | 0.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 5 | JAX vs BUF | 25–20 | -5.5 | -5.5 | +5.0 | 10.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 5 | KC @ MIN | 27–20 | +5.2 | +3.5 | +7.0 | 1.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 5 | NO @ NE | 34–0 | -0.8 | -2.5 | +34.0 | 34.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 5 | NYG @ MIA | 16–31 | -11.6 | -12.5 | -15.0 | 3.4 |
| 2023 | 5 | NYJ @ DEN | 31–21 | -0.4 | -2.5 | +10.0 | 10.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 5 | PHI @ LA | 23–14 | +3.8 | +3.5 | +9.0 | 5.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 5 | TEN @ IND | 16–23 | +1.9 | +2.5 | -7.0 | 8.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 4 | ARI @ SF | 16–35 | -13.5 | -15.0 | -19.0 | 5.5 |
| 2023 | 4 | ATL vs JAX | 7–23 | -1.5 | -3.5 | -16.0 | 14.5 |
| 2023 | 4 | BAL @ CLE | 28–3 | +0.3 | +2.0 | +25.0 | 24.7 |
| 2023 | 4 | CIN @ TEN | 3–27 | +3.0 | +2.5 | -24.0 | 27.0 |
| 2023 | 4 | DEN @ CHI | 31–28 | +2.6 | +3.0 | +3.0 | 0.4 |
| 2023 | 4 | DET @ GB | 34–20 | +1.1 | +2.5 | +14.0 | 12.9 |
| 2023 | 4 | KC @ NYJ | 23–20 | +8.4 | +9.5 | +3.0 | 5.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 4 | LA @ IND | 29–23 | +0.4 | +1.0 | +6.0 | 5.6 |
| 2023 | 4 | LV @ LAC | 17–24 | -7.4 | -7.0 | -7.0 | 0.4 |