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Every graded prediction from the historical walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and final margin. Lines are quoted for the home team.
Pick history| Season | Wk | Matchup | Score | Model | Close | Result | Model err |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 4 | MIA @ BUF | 20–48 | -1.9 | -2.5 | -28.0 | 26.1 |
| 2023 | 4 | MIN @ CAR | 21–13 | +1.6 | +4.5 | +8.0 | 6.4 |
| 2023 | 4 | NE @ DAL | 3–38 | -6.9 | -6.5 | -35.0 | 28.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 4 | PIT @ HOU | 6–30 | +2.3 | +3.0 | -24.0 | 26.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 4 |
Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.
| SEA @ NYG |
| 24–3 |
| +3.3 |
| +2.5 |
| +21.0 |
| 17.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 4 | TB @ NO | 26–9 | -5.4 | -4.0 | +17.0 | 22.4 |
| 2023 | 4 | WAS @ PHI | 31–34 | -10.6 | -9.5 | -3.0 | 7.6 |
| 2023 | 3 | ATL @ DET | 6–20 | -2.5 | -3.0 | -14.0 | 11.5 |
| 2023 | 3 | BUF @ WAS | 37–3 | +4.9 | +5.5 | +34.0 | 29.1 |
| 2023 | 3 | CAR @ SEA | 27–37 | -3.0 | -5.0 | -10.0 | 7.0 |
| 2023 | 3 | CHI @ KC | 10–41 | -13.1 | -13.0 | -31.0 | 17.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 3 | DAL @ ARI | 16–28 | +10.7 | +11.5 | -12.0 | 22.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 3 | DEN @ MIA | 20–70 | -6.3 | -6.0 | -50.0 | 43.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 3 | HOU @ JAX | 37–17 | -7.6 | -7.5 | +20.0 | 27.6 |
| 2023 | 3 | IND @ BAL | 22–19 | -6.6 | -7.5 | +3.0 | 9.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 3 | LA @ CIN | 16–19 | -3.5 | -3.0 | -3.0 | 0.5 |
| 2023 | 3 | LAC @ MIN | 28–24 | +0.3 | -1.0 | +4.0 | 3.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 3 | NE @ NYJ | 15–10 | -0.3 | +2.5 | +5.0 | 5.3 |
| 2023 | 3 | NO @ GB | 17–18 | +0.1 | +1.5 | -1.0 | 1.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 3 | NYG @ SF | 12–30 | -12.3 | -10.5 | -18.0 | 5.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 3 | PHI @ TB | 25–11 | +6.3 | +6.0 | +14.0 | 7.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 3 | PIT @ LV | 23–18 | -1.3 | -3.0 | +5.0 | 6.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 3 | TEN @ CLE | 3–27 | -3.8 | -3.5 | -24.0 | 20.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 2 | BAL @ CIN | 27–24 | -3.3 | -3.5 | +3.0 | 6.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 2 | CHI @ TB | 17–27 | -2.8 | -2.5 | -10.0 | 7.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 2 | CLE @ PIT | 22–26 | +1.8 | +2.5 | -4.0 | 5.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 2 | GB @ ATL | 24–25 | -1.6 | -3.0 | -1.0 | 0.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 2 | IND @ HOU | 31–20 | -0.0 | +1.0 | +11.0 | 11.0 |
| 2023 | 2 | KC @ JAX | 17–9 | +2.5 | +3.5 | +8.0 | 5.5 |
| 2023 | 2 | LAC @ TEN | 24–27 | +1.9 | +2.5 | -3.0 | 4.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 2 | LV @ BUF | 10–38 | -6.8 | -7.5 | -28.0 | 21.2 |
| 2023 | 2 | MIA @ NE | 24–17 | +1.8 | +2.0 | +7.0 | 5.2 |
| 2023 | 2 | MIN @ PHI | 28–34 | -7.2 | -6.0 | -6.0 | 1.2 |
| 2023 | 2 | NO @ CAR | 20–17 | +2.0 | +3.0 | +3.0 | 1.0 |
| 2023 | 2 | NYG @ ARI | 31–28 | +1.7 | +5.0 | +3.0 | 1.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 2 | NYJ @ DAL | 10–30 | -7.2 | -8.5 | -20.0 | 12.8 |
| 2023 | 2 | SEA @ DET | 37–31 | -5.2 | -4.5 | +6.0 | 11.2 |
| 2023 | 2 | SF @ LA | 30–23 | +6.5 | +7.5 | +7.0 | 0.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 2 | WAS @ DEN | 35–33 | -3.1 | -4.0 | +2.0 | 5.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 1 | ARI @ WAS | 16–20 | -5.8 | -7.0 | -4.0 | 1.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 1 | BUF @ NYJ | 16–22 | +1.6 | +2.5 | -6.0 | 7.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 1 | CAR @ ATL | 10–24 | -2.8 | -3.5 | -14.0 | 11.2 |
| 2023 | 1 | CIN @ CLE | 3–24 | +1.6 | +1.0 | -21.0 | 22.6 |
| 2023 | 1 | DAL @ NYG | 40–0 | +3.1 | +3.5 | +40.0 | 36.9 |
| 2023 | 1 | DET @ KC | 21–20 | -4.9 | -4.0 | +1.0 | 5.9 |
| 2023 | 1 | GB @ CHI | 38–20 | -0.5 | -1.0 | +18.0 | 18.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 1 | HOU @ BAL | 9–25 | -8.3 | -9.5 | -16.0 | 7.7 |
| 2023 | 1 | JAX @ IND | 31–21 | +3.7 | +4.0 | +10.0 | 6.3 |
| 2023 | 1 | LA @ SEA | 30–13 | -4.6 | -4.5 | +17.0 | 21.6 |
| 2023 | 1 | LV @ DEN | 17–16 | -3.8 | -3.0 | +1.0 | 4.8 |