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Every graded prediction from the historical walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and final margin. Lines are quoted for the home team.
Pick history| Season | Wk | Matchup | Score | Model | Close | Result | Model err |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 1 | MIA @ LAC | 36–34 | -3.1 | -3.0 | +2.0 | 5.1 |
| 2023 | 1 | PHI @ NE | 25–20 | +4.1 | +3.5 | +5.0 | 0.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 1 | SF @ PIT | 30–7 | +1.5 | +1.5 | +23.0 | 21.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 1 | TB @ MIN | 20–17 | -4.1 | -4.0 | +3.0 | 7.1 |
| 2023 | 1 |
Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.
| TEN @ NO |
| 15–16 |
| -4.0 |
| -3.0 |
| -1.0 |
| 3.0 |
| 2022 | 22 | KC vs PHI | 38–35 | -0.5 | -1.0 | +3.0 | 3.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 21 | CIN @ KC | 20–23 | -2.8 | -2.0 | -3.0 | 0.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 21 | SF @ PHI | 7–31 | -1.9 | -2.5 | -24.0 | 22.1 |
| 2022 | 20 | CIN @ BUF | 27–10 | -4.5 | -6.0 | +17.0 | 21.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 20 | DAL @ SF | 12–19 | -3.5 | -3.5 | -7.0 | 3.5 |
| 2022 | 20 | JAX @ KC | 20–27 | -11.0 | -10.0 | -7.0 | 4.0 |
| 2022 | 20 | NYG @ PHI | 7–38 | -7.8 | -8.0 | -31.0 | 23.2 |
| 2022 | 19 | BAL @ CIN | 17–24 | -7.9 | -7.5 | -7.0 | 0.9 |
| 2022 | 19 | DAL @ TB | 31–14 | +2.1 | +2.5 | +17.0 | 14.9 |
| 2022 | 19 | LAC @ JAX | 30–31 | +1.8 | +2.0 | -1.0 | 2.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 19 | MIA @ BUF | 31–34 | -11.4 | -14.0 | -3.0 | 8.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 19 | NYG @ MIN | 31–24 | -3.0 | -2.5 | +7.0 | 10.0 |
| 2022 | 19 | SEA @ SF | 23–41 | -10.9 | -10.0 | -18.0 | 7.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 18 | ARI @ SF | 13–38 | -12.8 | -14.0 | -25.0 | 12.2 |
| 2022 | 18 | BAL @ CIN | 16–27 | -9.3 | -11.0 | -11.0 | 1.7 |
| 2022 | 18 | CAR @ NO | 10–7 | -4.3 | -3.5 | +3.0 | 7.3 |
| 2022 | 18 | CLE @ PIT | 14–28 | -2.1 | -2.5 | -14.0 | 11.9 |
| 2022 | 18 | DAL @ WAS | 6–26 | +6.8 | +7.5 | -20.0 | 26.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 18 | DET @ GB | 20–16 | -6.1 | -5.5 | +4.0 | 10.1 |
| 2022 | 18 | HOU @ IND | 32–31 | -5.2 | -3.0 | +1.0 | 6.2 |
| 2022 | 18 | KC @ LV | 31–13 | +7.5 | +9.0 | +18.0 | 10.5 |
| 2022 | 18 | LA @ SEA | 16–19 | -2.4 | -5.5 | -3.0 | 0.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 18 | LAC @ DEN | 28–31 | -1.1 | -6.0 | -3.0 | 1.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 18 | MIN @ CHI | 29–13 | +3.3 | +6.5 | +16.0 | 12.7 |
| 2022 | 18 | NE @ BUF | 23–35 | -8.8 | -8.0 | -12.0 | 3.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 18 | NYG @ PHI | 16–22 | -12.8 | -16.5 | -6.0 | 6.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 18 | NYJ @ MIA | 6–11 | -6.3 | -3.5 | -5.0 | 1.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 18 | TB @ ATL | 17–30 | -0.4 | -6.0 | -13.0 | 12.6 |
| 2022 | 18 | TEN @ JAX | 16–20 | -4.9 | -6.0 | -4.0 | 0.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 17 | ARI @ ATL | 19–20 | -3.1 | -7.0 | -1.0 | 2.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 17 | CAR @ TB | 24–30 | -4.2 | -3.5 | -6.0 | 1.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 17 | CHI @ DET | 10–41 | -4.8 | -4.5 | -31.0 | 26.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 17 | CLE @ WAS | 24–10 | -1.2 | -1.0 | +14.0 | 15.2 |
| 2022 | 17 | DAL @ TEN | 27–13 | +10.7 | +14.0 | +14.0 | 3.3 |
| 2022 | 17 | DEN @ KC | 24–27 | -13.1 | -13.5 | -3.0 | 10.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 17 | IND @ NYG | 10–38 | -2.1 | -5.5 | -28.0 | 25.9 |
| 2022 | 17 | JAX @ HOU | 31–3 | +4.0 | +3.5 | +28.0 | 24.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 17 | LA @ LAC | 10–31 | -4.7 | -6.5 | -21.0 | 16.3 |
| 2022 | 17 | MIA @ NE | 21–23 | -2.7 | -3.0 | -2.0 | 0.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 17 | MIN @ GB | 17–41 | -4.7 | -3.0 | -24.0 | 19.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 17 | NO @ PHI | 20–10 | -6.6 | -5.5 | +10.0 | 16.6 |
| 2022 | 17 | NYJ @ SEA | 6–23 | -0.9 | +1.0 | -17.0 | 16.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 17 | PIT @ BAL | 16–13 | -2.4 | -1.0 | +3.0 | 5.4 |
| 2022 | 17 | SF @ LV | 37–34 | +7.9 | +10.0 | +3.0 | 4.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 16 | ATL @ BAL | 9–17 | -7.6 | -6.5 | -8.0 | 0.4 (model closer than the closing line) |