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Every graded prediction from the historical walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and final margin. Lines are quoted for the home team.
Pick history| Season | Wk | Matchup | Score | Model | Close | Result | Model err |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 16 | KC @ TEN | 9–26 | +6.2 | +3.5 | -17.0 | 23.2 |
| 2025 | 16 | LA @ SEA | 37–38 | -1.6 | -1.5 | -1.0 | 0.6 |
| 2025 | 16 | LAC @ DAL | 34–17 | +0.4 | -1.5 | +17.0 | 16.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 16 | LV @ HOU | 21–23 | -14.6 | -14.5 | -2.0 | 12.6 |
| 2025 | 16 |
Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.
| MIN @ NYG |
| 16–13 |
| +3.0 |
| +2.5 |
| +3.0 |
| 0.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 16 | NE @ BAL | 28–24 | -3.8 | -3.5 | +4.0 | 7.8 |
| 2025 | 16 | NYJ @ NO | 6–29 | -5.3 | -6.5 | -23.0 | 17.7 |
| 2025 | 16 | PHI @ WAS | 29–18 | +6.9 | +7.0 | +11.0 | 4.1 |
| 2025 | 16 | PIT @ DET | 29–24 | -6.5 | -7.5 | +5.0 | 11.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 16 | SF @ IND | 48–27 | +2.9 | +4.5 | +21.0 | 18.1 |
| 2025 | 16 | TB @ CAR | 20–23 | +2.2 | +3.0 | -3.0 | 5.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 15 | ARI @ HOU | 20–40 | -9.9 | -10.5 | -20.0 | 10.1 |
| 2025 | 15 | ATL @ TB | 29–28 | -4.4 | -6.0 | +1.0 | 5.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 15 | BAL @ CIN | 24–0 | +2.1 | +2.5 | +24.0 | 21.9 |
| 2025 | 15 | BUF @ NE | 35–31 | +2.4 | +2.5 | +4.0 | 1.6 |
| 2025 | 15 | CAR @ NO | 17–20 | +1.0 | +2.5 | -3.0 | 4.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 15 | CLE @ CHI | 3–31 | -7.3 | -7.5 | -28.0 | 20.7 |
| 2025 | 15 | DET @ LA | 34–41 | -5.1 | -5.5 | -7.0 | 1.9 |
| 2025 | 15 | GB @ DEN | 26–34 | +0.6 | +1.5 | -8.0 | 8.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 15 | IND @ SEA | 16–18 | -11.4 | -13.5 | -2.0 | 9.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 15 | LAC @ KC | 16–13 | -4.8 | -5.5 | +3.0 | 7.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 15 | LV @ PHI | 0–31 | -13.3 | -12.5 | -31.0 | 17.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 15 | MIA @ PIT | 15–28 | -2.3 | -3.0 | -13.0 | 10.7 |
| 2025 | 15 | MIN @ DAL | 34–26 | -2.9 | -5.5 | +8.0 | 10.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 15 | NYJ @ JAX | 20–48 | -11.7 | -13.5 | -28.0 | 16.3 |
| 2025 | 15 | TEN @ SF | 24–37 | -12.0 | -12.5 | -13.0 | 1.0 |
| 2025 | 15 | WAS @ NYG | 29–21 | -1.4 | -2.5 | +8.0 | 9.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 14 | CHI @ GB | 21–28 | -6.2 | -6.5 | -7.0 | 0.8 |
| 2025 | 14 | CIN @ BUF | 34–39 | -7.2 | -6.0 | -5.0 | 2.2 |
| 2025 | 14 | DAL @ DET | 30–44 | -5.2 | -3.5 | -14.0 | 8.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 14 | DEN @ LV | 24–17 | +8.6 | +8.5 | +7.0 | 1.6 |
| 2025 | 14 | HOU @ KC | 20–10 | -3.8 | -4.5 | +10.0 | 13.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 14 | IND @ JAX | 19–36 | +1.3 | +2.5 | -17.0 | 18.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 14 | LA @ ARI | 45–17 | +8.5 | +9.5 | +28.0 | 19.5 |
| 2025 | 14 | MIA @ NYJ | 34–10 | +1.7 | +2.5 | +24.0 | 22.3 |
| 2025 | 14 | NO @ TB | 24–20 | -7.6 | -7.5 | +4.0 | 11.6 |
| 2025 | 14 | PHI @ LAC | 19–22 | +1.5 | +1.5 | -3.0 | 4.5 |
| 2025 | 14 | PIT @ BAL | 27–22 | -5.9 | -5.5 | +5.0 | 10.9 |
| 2025 | 14 | SEA @ ATL | 37–9 | +7.0 | +7.0 | +28.0 | 21.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 14 | TEN @ CLE | 31–29 | -4.5 | -4.5 | +2.0 | 6.5 |
| 2025 | 14 | WAS @ MIN | 0–31 | -0.1 | +1.5 | -31.0 | 30.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 13 | ARI @ TB | 17–20 | -4.7 | -4.5 | -3.0 | 1.7 |
| 2025 | 13 | ATL @ NYJ | 24–27 | +2.2 | +3.0 | -3.0 | 5.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 13 | BUF @ PIT | 26–7 | +3.2 | +3.0 | +19.0 | 15.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 13 | CHI @ PHI | 24–15 | -7.4 | -7.0 | +9.0 | 16.4 |
| 2025 | 13 | CIN @ BAL | 32–14 | -7.7 | -7.0 | +18.0 | 25.7 |
| 2025 | 13 | DEN @ WAS | 27–26 | +5.3 | +6.5 | +1.0 | 4.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 13 | GB @ DET | 31–24 | -2.5 | -2.5 | +7.0 | 9.5 |
| 2025 | 13 | HOU @ IND | 20–16 | -2.0 | -3.0 | +4.0 | 6.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 13 | JAX @ TEN | 25–3 | +5.4 | +6.0 | +22.0 | 16.6 |