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Every graded prediction from the historical walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and final margin. Lines are quoted for the home team.
Pick history| Season | Wk | Matchup | Score | Model | Close | Result | Model err |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 13 | KC @ CIN | 24–27 | +1.6 | +2.5 | -3.0 | 4.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 13 | LAC @ LV | 20–27 | -1.5 | -2.5 | -7.0 | 5.5 |
| 2022 | 13 | MIA @ SF | 17–33 | -3.3 | -4.5 | -16.0 | 12.7 |
| 2022 | 13 | NO @ TB | 16–17 | -4.4 | -3.5 | -1.0 | 3.4 |
| 2022 | 13 |
Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.
| 22–27 |
| -2.8 |
| -3.0 |
| -5.0 |
| 2.2 |
| 2022 | 13 | PIT @ ATL | 19–16 | +1.2 | +1.0 | +3.0 | 1.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 13 | SEA @ LA | 27–23 | +3.0 | +7.0 | +4.0 | 1.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 13 | TEN @ PHI | 10–35 | -4.7 | -5.0 | -25.0 | 20.3 |
| 2022 | 13 | WAS @ NYG | 20–20 | +2.2 | +2.5 | 0.0 | 2.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 12 | ATL @ WAS | 13–19 | -5.7 | -3.5 | -6.0 | 0.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 12 | BAL @ JAX | 27–28 | +3.9 | +3.5 | -1.0 | 4.9 |
| 2022 | 12 | BUF @ DET | 28–25 | +9.3 | +10.0 | +3.0 | 6.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 12 | CHI @ NYJ | 10–31 | -5.9 | -8.5 | -21.0 | 15.1 |
| 2022 | 12 | CIN @ TEN | 20–16 | +0.9 | +1.0 | +4.0 | 3.1 |
| 2022 | 12 | DEN @ CAR | 10–23 | +2.2 | +1.0 | -13.0 | 15.2 |
| 2022 | 12 | GB @ PHI | 33–40 | -6.3 | -6.5 | -7.0 | 0.7 |
| 2022 | 12 | HOU @ MIA | 15–30 | -13.8 | -14.0 | -15.0 | 1.2 |
| 2022 | 12 | LA @ KC | 10–26 | -13.9 | -16.5 | -16.0 | 2.1 |
| 2022 | 12 | LAC @ ARI | 25–24 | +1.2 | +2.5 | +1.0 | 0.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 12 | LV @ SEA | 40–34 | -3.0 | -4.0 | +6.0 | 9.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 12 | NE @ MIN | 26–33 | -1.5 | -2.5 | -7.0 | 5.5 |
| 2022 | 12 | NO @ SF | 0–13 | -8.6 | -9.5 | -13.0 | 4.4 |
| 2022 | 12 | NYG @ DAL | 20–28 | -11.6 | -10.5 | -8.0 | 3.6 |
| 2022 | 12 | PIT @ IND | 24–17 | -4.3 | -2.5 | +7.0 | 11.3 |
| 2022 | 12 | TB @ CLE | 17–23 | +2.9 | +3.0 | -6.0 | 8.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 11 | CAR @ BAL | 3–13 | -12.1 | -13.0 | -10.0 | 2.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 11 | CHI @ ATL | 24–27 | -1.9 | -3.0 | -3.0 | 1.1 |
| 2022 | 11 | CIN @ PIT | 37–30 | +5.2 | +3.5 | +7.0 | 1.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 11 | CLE vs BUF | 23–31 | -9.1 | -7.5 | -8.0 | 1.1 |
| 2022 | 11 | DAL @ MIN | 40–3 | +0.7 | +1.5 | +37.0 | 36.3 |
| 2022 | 11 | DET @ NYG | 31–18 | -3.5 | -3.0 | +13.0 | 16.5 |
| 2022 | 11 | KC @ LAC | 30–27 | +5.0 | +5.5 | +3.0 | 2.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 11 | LA @ NO | 20–27 | -2.7 | -2.5 | -7.0 | 4.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 11 | LV @ DEN | 22–16 | -3.8 | -2.5 | +6.0 | 9.8 |
| 2022 | 11 | NYJ @ NE | 3–10 | -4.3 | -3.5 | -7.0 | 2.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 11 | PHI @ IND | 17–16 | +4.5 | +6.5 | +1.0 | 3.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 11 | SF vs ARI | 38–10 | +6.9 | +10.0 | +28.0 | 21.1 |
| 2022 | 11 | TEN @ GB | 27–17 | -2.2 | -3.0 | +10.0 | 12.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 11 | WAS @ HOU | 23–10 | +3.1 | +3.0 | +13.0 | 9.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 10 | ARI @ LA | 27–17 | -3.6 | -3.5 | +10.0 | 13.6 |
| 2022 | 10 | ATL @ CAR | 15–25 | +0.7 | +2.5 | -10.0 | 10.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 10 | CLE @ MIA | 17–39 | -3.2 | -3.0 | -22.0 | 18.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 10 | DAL @ GB | 28–31 | +3.1 | +3.5 | -3.0 | 6.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 10 | DEN @ TEN | 10–17 | -2.1 | -2.5 | -7.0 | 4.9 |
| 2022 | 10 | DET @ CHI | 31–30 | -2.7 | -3.0 | +1.0 | 3.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 10 | HOU @ NYG | 16–24 | -6.1 | -5.5 | -8.0 | 1.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 10 | IND @ LV | 25–20 | -3.4 | -4.5 | +5.0 | 8.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 10 | JAX @ KC | 17–27 | -10.6 | -10.0 | -10.0 | 0.6 |
| 2022 | 10 | LAC @ SF | 16–22 | -7.0 | -8.5 | -6.0 | 1.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 10 | MIN @ BUF | 33–30 | -8.3 | -6.5 | +3.0 | 11.3 |