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Every graded prediction from the historical walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and final margin. Lines are quoted for the home team.
Pick history| Season | Wk | Matchup | Score | Model | Close | Result | Model err |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 10 | NO @ PIT | 10–20 | +0.5 | -1.0 | -10.0 | 10.5 |
| 2022 | 10 | SEA vs TB | 16–21 | -2.3 | -2.5 | -5.0 | 2.7 |
| 2022 | 10 | WAS @ PHI | 32–21 | -11.3 | -11.0 | +11.0 | 22.3 |
| 2022 | 9 | BAL @ NO | 27–13 | +0.1 | +1.0 | +14.0 | 13.9 |
| 2022 | 9 | BUF @ NYJ |
Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.
| 17–20 |
| +10.8 |
| +11.0 |
| -3.0 |
| 13.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 9 | CAR @ CIN | 21–42 | -7.5 | -7.0 | -21.0 | 13.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 9 | GB @ DET | 9–15 | +3.7 | +4.0 | -6.0 | 9.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 9 | IND @ NE | 3–26 | -4.3 | -5.0 | -23.0 | 18.7 |
| 2022 | 9 | LA @ TB | 13–16 | -3.3 | -3.0 | -3.0 | 0.3 |
| 2022 | 9 | LAC @ ATL | 20–17 | +3.1 | +2.5 | +3.0 | 0.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 9 | LV @ JAX | 20–27 | +0.8 | +2.5 | -7.0 | 7.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 9 | MIA @ CHI | 35–32 | +3.8 | +4.0 | +3.0 | 0.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 9 | MIN @ WAS | 20–17 | +2.5 | +3.0 | +3.0 | 0.5 |
| 2022 | 9 | PHI @ HOU | 29–17 | +12.6 | +14.0 | +12.0 | 0.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 9 | SEA @ ARI | 31–21 | -2.2 | -1.5 | +10.0 | 12.2 |
| 2022 | 9 | TEN @ KC | 17–20 | -11.8 | -14.0 | -3.0 | 8.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 8 | ARI @ MIN | 26–34 | -3.4 | -4.0 | -8.0 | 4.6 |
| 2022 | 8 | BAL @ TB | 27–22 | -1.8 | -2.0 | +5.0 | 6.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 8 | CAR @ ATL | 34–37 | -2.3 | -4.5 | -3.0 | 0.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 8 | CHI @ DAL | 29–49 | -9.5 | -10.5 | -20.0 | 10.5 |
| 2022 | 8 | CIN @ CLE | 13–32 | +3.9 | +3.0 | -19.0 | 22.9 |
| 2022 | 8 | DEN vs JAX | 21–17 | +0.3 | -1.0 | +4.0 | 3.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 8 | GB @ BUF | 17–27 | -10.7 | -10.5 | -10.0 | 0.7 |
| 2022 | 8 | LV @ NO | 0–24 | +0.8 | +1.0 | -24.0 | 24.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 8 | MIA @ DET | 31–27 | +4.0 | +3.5 | +4.0 | 0.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 8 | NE @ NYJ | 22–17 | +2.2 | +3.0 | +5.0 | 2.8 |
| 2022 | 8 | NYG @ SEA | 13–27 | -2.8 | -3.0 | -14.0 | 11.2 |
| 2022 | 8 | PIT @ PHI | 13–35 | -11.5 | -11.0 | -22.0 | 10.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 8 | SF @ LA | 31–14 | -0.0 | +1.0 | +17.0 | 17.0 |
| 2022 | 8 | TEN @ HOU | 17–10 | +3.0 | +1.0 | +7.0 | 4.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 8 | WAS @ IND | 17–16 | -3.6 | -3.0 | +1.0 | 4.6 |
| 2022 | 7 | ATL @ CIN | 17–35 | -7.6 | -6.5 | -18.0 | 10.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 7 | CHI @ NE | 33–14 | -9.6 | -9.5 | +19.0 | 28.6 |
| 2022 | 7 | CLE @ BAL | 20–23 | -7.2 | -6.5 | -3.0 | 4.2 |
| 2022 | 7 | DET @ DAL | 6–24 | -8.2 | -7.0 | -18.0 | 9.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 7 | GB @ WAS | 21–23 | +3.4 | +4.0 | -2.0 | 5.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 7 | HOU @ LV | 20–38 | -7.5 | -7.0 | -18.0 | 10.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 7 | IND @ TEN | 10–19 | -2.7 | -2.5 | -9.0 | 6.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 7 | KC @ SF | 44–23 | +0.8 | +1.0 | +21.0 | 20.2 |
| 2022 | 7 | NO @ ARI | 34–42 | -1.7 | -2.5 | -8.0 | 6.3 |
| 2022 | 7 | NYG @ JAX | 23–17 | -3.2 | -3.0 | +6.0 | 9.2 |
| 2022 | 7 | NYJ @ DEN | 16–9 | -1.9 | +2.0 | +7.0 | 8.9 |
| 2022 | 7 | PIT @ MIA | 10–16 | -6.8 | -7.5 | -6.0 | 0.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 7 | SEA @ LAC | 37–23 | -5.9 | -5.5 | +14.0 | 19.9 |
| 2022 | 7 | TB @ CAR | 3–21 | +10.3 | +13.0 | -18.0 | 28.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 6 | ARI @ SEA | 9–19 | +1.1 | +2.5 | -10.0 | 11.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 6 | BAL @ NYG | 20–24 | +4.5 | +5.5 | -4.0 | 8.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 6 | BUF @ KC | 24–20 | +2.0 | +2.5 | +4.0 | 2.0 |
| 2022 | 6 | CAR @ LA | 10–24 | -9.0 | -10.0 | -14.0 | 5.0 |
| 2022 | 6 | CIN @ NO | 30–26 | +2.3 | +3.0 | +4.0 | 1.7 |